BREXIT, SCHMEXIT – Much Ado About Nothing???
Like Y2K, the second war in Iraq and other date certain events, the United Kingdom will vote on Thursday whether it wants to remain in the European Union (EU), otherwise known as BREXIT (BRitain EXIT). Unlike most geopolitical events which just happen, the BREXIT vote has been known about for some time as UK Prime Minister Cameron promised to hold this referendum if he won reelection in 2015. What is the BREXIT & Why Depending on who you ask, the […]
Read More
Date: June 22, 2016
Biding Time to BREXIT
After an almost celebratory opening on Monday which saw the Dow up 200 points, stock steadily declined throughout the day and closed at their lows. On the surface, the average person saw all of the major indices nicely higher with the vast majority of stocks up on the day. The short-term trader saw a tired market that couldn’t hold early gains and closed at the low tick. Both observations are correct but time frame determines your viewpoint. I fall somewhere […]
Read More
Date: June 21, 2016
Bulls’ Time… AGAIN
As has been the theme since the February bottom, weakness is buying opportunity until proven otherwise. Except for the brief period from April 21 to May 20, I have been pounding the table on the bullish front. The Fed, earnings, China, BREXIT, employment have all given ammunition to the bears, but someone forgot to tell the stock market. Last Thursday saw a somewhat dramatic reversal the day after the Fed meeting which helped our Fed trends. While the bulls took […]
Read More
Date: June 19, 2016
***Special Fed Meeting Update & The Continuous Loss of Credibility and Clue***
Six weeks later and it’s Groundhog Day all over again! Or is that deja vu all over again?!?! It matters not. I began my Fed day comments with this in April. “The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee concludes their two day meeting with an announcement at 2 pm that interest rates will not change today. That’s what the markets are expecting. There has been all kinds of hot air coming from several Fed officials that rates need to rise now, […]
Read More
Date: June 15, 2016
Yes, I Know… The Pullback to Buy
At the end of last week, stocks looked a tiny bit tired. Two days later and 2% lower, it’s getting ripe for at least a bounce. Over the past week, the inverse volatility ETF (XIV), which is really just the S&P 500 times 5 or 6 is down a whopping 34%! That’s some odd behavior and historically does not portend more significant downside. Stocks are pulling back as they approached all-time highs which is certainly not unexpected. There are few […]
Read More
Date: June 14, 2016
The Answer is NO
If we were playing Jeopardy, the question would be, “Has the Stock Market Peaked?” The other day, I wrote about the potential for a 1-3% pullback in the context of generally higher stock prices. That remains my view and weakness can be bought. It’s amazing that a single day of decline in the stock market after a 5% rally can bring out so many bears. Stocks were overdue for some weakness and now we have it. While it’s probably a […]
Read More
Date: June 10, 2016
Chicken Little is Alive and Well
In Friday morning’s piece, The “All-Important” Jobs Report, I discussed that it’s much more important to watch how the markets react to the news rather than what the actual news is. The jobs report was abysmal and the media reacted in kind by rolling out every bearish economist to let us know that the economy was as weak as anytime since 2009. Market strategists also responded as expected with the same wrong calls for a major correction and new bear […]
Read More
Date: June 8, 2016
The “All-Important” Jobs Report
Another new month, another employment report. As usual, the media is hyping this to the Nth degree as a clue to what the Fed is going to do with interest rates later this month. I learned very early on that economic reports and earnings and geopolitical news don’t really matter. It’s how the markets REACT to the news that’s really important. In October 2000, companies started reporting very solid earnings, but stocks fell sharply day after day in what became […]
Read More
Date: June 3, 2016
Buy the Dip
As you know, I turned short and intermediate-term positive again last Monday. My long-term bullish view never changed. Stocks rallied really nicely for most of the week and should see higher highs coming in June. I closed Friday’s post with a comment that a pullback this week would not be so bad. I think it’s here and should be routine and healthy with a quick bout of 1-3% weakness. There is one caveat which I will mention in another post […]
Read More
Date: May 31, 2016
Bulls Have Room to Run
Having turned negative on stocks on April 21, I warned last week that our models were close to turning positive again. What I didn’t realize at the time was that it was going to happen just a few hours later and confirmed on Monday. If you recall, I wasn’t expecting anything major on the downside, just some normal and healthy weakness, or a pause to refresh before heading higher again. I did believe that it would be the largest pullback […]
Read More
Date: May 27, 2016
