Taking Stock as Q3 Begins – The Single Most Important Sign
As July, Q3 and 2H 2022 begin the financial markets remain volatile and likely to stay that way throughout Q3. Over the past month or so, I have been encouraged by the behavior in sectors that peaked first and led the decline, namely, software, biotech, innovation and China. Those groups continue to lead the nascent rally. As I keep mentioning, I love bonds, especially on a risk-adjusted basis through year-end. The rally off the low has been strong and certainly […]
Read More
Date: July 6, 2022
2022 a Redux of 2008?
A new video has been posted. Is 2022 a Repeat of 2008?
Read More
Date: July 5, 2022
Overusing “Good Riddance” & Inflation of July 4th Travel
Almost every month in 2022 I have used the words “good riddance” as the new month began. I used it when Q1 ended and now I am saying GOOD RIDDANCE to June, Q2 and 1H 2022. None have been easy. As the calendar turns to July, there are a number of seasonal crosscurrents. During the second year of first term presidents, the stock market remains unappealing during the summer and often sees a major bottom in September or October. The […]
Read More
Date: July 1, 2022
Bears Come Out of Hibernation
After we finally saw a nice week for the bulls last week, the bears decided enough was enough and sold the opening in a big way on Tuesday. I expect chatter to quickly turn to whether a new leg lower for the stock market has begun and how much deeper the bear market can go. The best things you can say about Tuesday are that small and mid cap stocks did not lead the market lower and the NYSE A/D […]
Read More
Date: June 29, 2022
Why “Set It and Forget It” May Be the Wrong Investment Strategy
Please don’t shoot the messenger, but I’m here to tell you that, while setting it and forgetting it (SIFI) can sometimes be a generally helpful strategy, it is not ALWAYS best. In this article, I’ll describe how SIFI works and seven ways it falls short, especially if you manage your portfolio on your own. I’ll finish by showing how a fiduciary advisor can provide the benefits of SIFI without the downsides. What Is Set It and Forget It Investing? […]
Read More
Date: June 28, 2022
The Pummeled are Leading
The bulls finally won a week. It took four weeks for a victory, and they were able to recover the full losses from the week before. That was no easy task! The stock market remains in bounce mode and the bulls should have more firepower to use in the coming days and weeks. Keep in mind that this is the last week of June and the end of Q2. Although there are significant losses in both stocks and bonds, we […]
Read More
Date: June 27, 2022
A Bull Market in Bears
Well look at that, three days this week the stock market is gapping up at the open. I would be surprised if the bears were able to thwart the bulls at all today. What a difference from a few weeks ago when it gapped down four straight days and in much greater magnitude. The bull have had a nice week. It’s the first up week of what has been a brutally tough month (and quarter and year) for the bulls. […]
Read More
Date: June 24, 2022
Wednesday a Key Day – Extreme Bearish Sentiment
The markets returned from the holiday weekend with an absence of sellers. The bulls had a big day although not as strong as price indicated. By that, I mean the number of stocks going up on the day and the volume associated with those stocks was not as powerful as price said it should be. Yes; I could be nitpicking, but after such a significant decline I want to see more progress. Interestingly, I read a thread on Twitter about […]
Read More
Date: June 22, 2022
The Big Mistake Richard Made Managing His Retirement
We’ll call him Richard so as to not embarrass him. Richard is a great guy, but sometimes he can’t seem to get out of his own way. Richard’s made many mistakes over the years, including: Buying a timeshare Investing in a family member’s startup Taking Social Security benefits before age 70 Failing to diversify his stock portfolio But the biggest mistake in Richard’s personal finance strategy was to utilize the services of a broker-dealer. B/Ds tend to focus more narrowly […]
Read More
Date: June 21, 2022
This Year Ain’t Easy But It’s NOT 2008
FYI. The financial markets are closed on Monday in observance of Juneteenth. Stocks ticked ever so slightly higher to close another very challenging week for the bulls. It was also a quarterly expiration of futures and options which likely exacerbated the decline. From March 29th to May 12th the stock market experienced one of the strongest selling waves ever. More recently, the stock market saw four straight 1% down days ending on June 13th, also rivaling other periods for strength […]
Read More
Date: June 20, 2022
***SPECIAL Fed Update – The Fed Can’t Win – The Final Countdown***
The stock market model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a bigger move. Given the recent decline there could be a little more juice in that trade, but it would have been better had stocks fallen into Tuesday’s close. I joined my friend Tim Lammers and the morning team on Fox61 today to offer a primer on the Fed meeting and correct one of the biggest myths about the Fed. You can watch HERE. Driving […]
Read More
Date: June 15, 2022
Not The Scenario I Wanted – Answering Your Questions
***Please note that I have started and stopped this update a number of times since I am on the road, so please forgive the pieces that may be a little stale*** I want to start off by addressing a comment and answering a few questions. First, a number of folks emailed why I didn’t send out market updates last week. I did. I just didn’t send notification to the entire list. Remember, I try to publish on the blog on […]
Read More
Date: June 13, 2022
Damaging The Bullish Case
The seesaw stock market ended on Thursday as the up, down, up, down gave way to strong selling in the afternoon. The recent short-term trading range which I thought would resolve itself to the upside instead broke lower and it was an ugly day for the bulls with 90% of volume coming in stocks moving to downside. I often get asked why something happens and the truth of the matter is that it is never 100% clear. However, in this […]
Read More
Date: June 10, 2022
Choppy & Sloppy
The stock market has certainly been choppy over the past 7 days with three up days and four down days. The S&P 500 is in the same area as it was on May 27. Coming off the first rally from a very volatile bottom, this can be expected. Ultimately, the resolution should be to the upside in the not too distant future. We know that biotech, new innovation and software were hit the hardest. And those groups seem to be […]
Read More
Date: June 8, 2022
Bull Market in Bearishness
It’s amazing how many articles I see and Google searches being made about recessions and bear markets. Since the 2008 financial crisis, investors have typically pivoted very quickly to being negative when headlines were dark. And since 2009 we have not had any long-lasting stock market declines. When I get questioned about the comparison between now and the Dotcom Bubble, there are many enormous differences, but none bigger than the lengthy period it took for investors to become bearish. Every […]
Read More
Date: June 6, 2022
We’re Afraid of Running Out of Money During Retirement
Many Americans might not go completely broke in retirement, but the fear of running out is real, especially when financial markets fall. According to a February 2021 research report by the National Institute on Retirement Security, 56 percent of respondents said they are concerned about achieving a financially secure retirement. The good news is that the right financial professional can help ease your fears by showing you how to make your money last longer. In this article, I share some […]
Read More
Date: June 3, 2022
Adios May
Can I just say good riddance to May and move on? After all, the first 19 days were as painful as any in recent memory. And one of the longest and most relentless selling waves took place through May 20th. The good news was that my loyal readers got a timely warning that a low of significance was forming. During that period I presented a number of indicators and charts which firmly supported my position that “A” bottom was being […]
Read More
Date: June 1, 2022
Historic Selling Wave Ended
As I have been writing about for more than a week, I had high conviction that a low of some sort was forming. Dozens of stars were lining up and even if this was 2008 (it’s not), prices should still rebound 7-15%. And the bulls did what I said they were supposed to do. Step up and squeeze the bears. Prices are back to the peak from Fed day this month where the last plunge began. The bulls should surpass […]
Read More
Date: May 27, 2022
Like a Broken Record – Volatility to Remain High
Greetings from Metro North, my first train ride to New York City since February 2020. Trains are still crowded. Masks are mandatory although 25-33% of the riders are not wearing them. And my parking lot in Milford CT is now a condo complex, something that would have been helpful to know before I arrived. Given how bad traffic has been to NYC, I think I am going to stick with the train for now. I am hoping to get my […]
Read More
Date: May 25, 2022
Lots Of & Increasing Evidence That Stocks Are Bottoming For Now
The markets start the new week with the Dow Industrials having been down 8 straight weeks, the most since 1923 if you believe the old data are correct. This stat has been posted all over social media. It’s just stating the obvious. The stock market has been in one of the most relentless selling waves of all-time. That’s inarguable fact and obvious to anyone with skin in the game. But it’s still not easy to live through. My question for […]
Read More
Date: May 23, 2022
