Trader’s Market Continues – Beware Junk
Last month the stock market plunged followed by a sharp snap back this month. As I wrote the other day, stocks were really in no man’s land, caught between the lines in the sand. After Thursday’s big rout by the bears, the market is once again close to new lows for the week. While I still don’t believe stocks are ready to revisit the January mini-crash lows just yet, it’s not a hill I am willing to die on either. […]
Read More
Date: February 18, 2022
No Man’s Land – Patience Required
While the media credited Russian troops seen leaving the border with Ukraine as cause for stocks to rally, the stock market was in a position where it was SUPPOSED to rally as I wrote the other day. Right now, they are somewhat in no man’s land and I do not have strong conviction as to what is coming in the very short-term. We have higher lows and lower highs which eventually will lead to a big move. Right now, we […]
Read More
Date: February 16, 2022
Markets “SHOULD” Rally – Junk a Big Concern
Greetings from the Sunshine State! I flew a new airline out of New Haven called Avelo. It felt like a cross between Southwest and People’s Express for those who remember those crazy years. I truly hope it makes it and continues to garner attention because CT desperately needs another airport between Hartford, RI and NY. I was planning on writing this on the way down, but the startup airline doesn’t have WiFi yet. What a truly great Super Bowl to […]
Read More
Date: February 15, 2022
Frustration – Sometimes You’re The Bug; Sometimes You’re The Windshield
In my 2022 Fearless Forecast, I wrote about three key words for 2022, patience, frustration and quality. While the year is only 6 weeks old, I think those three words have resonated strongly and we are a long way from being over. Thursday was a super frustrating day for me. Early in the morning, indications were for a flat market open pending the big inflation number at 8:30am. After a big up day on Wednesday, that was okay by me […]
Read More
Date: February 11, 2022
People Partying Again – A Look Into My Notebook
It sure seems like the hangover from the stock market decline that bottomed on January 24th has passed. People feel better and I am going to go out on a limb and say that we will see this reflected in next week’s sentiment surveys which are being taken this week. February 2nd is the highest level since the January market low, but investors certainly are happier today than then. In fact, we are now seeing the S&P 400 and Russell […]
Read More
Date: February 9, 2022
Stronger Jobs Report – Will Stocks Join Party?
Let’s start with Friday’s employment report where 467,000 new jobs were created versus the 200,000 forecast. Unemployment ticked up .1% to 4%. My initial thought was WOW! Finally, a beat and not bad in absolute terms. I didn’t really care about the uptick in the rate. Maybe the job market was correcting and the structural issues were going away. That would be such welcomed news. I didn’t give it much more thought until I read a piece over the weekend […]
Read More
Date: February 7, 2022
Stock Market Due for a Proper Correction in 2022
In a recent interview with FOX61, Paul Schatz, President of Heritage Capital shares the 2022 financial markets forecast and headwinds to prepare for. Listen to what he says you can do to make sure your finances stay stable in the current environment. Last year we witnessed the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) rise by a spectacular 27% despite worries over COVID, inflation, and rising interest rates. Those high-net-worth investors pursuing high-net-worth investing strategies were suitably rewarded for sticking […]
Read More
Date: February 7, 2022
Textbook Rally – Is It Over?
Between a crazy earnings season and a steady stream of economic data, it’s like a constant strobe light show, or as someone else tweeted, like being a dog on a squirrel farm. As you know, I thought 2021 would close with very strong economic data that would weaken in 2022. Q4 GDP came in super powerful at +6.9% which was more than a full point ahead of estimates. It is almost impossible for politicians and others to argue that the […]
Read More
Date: February 3, 2022
***Q4 Client Report***
And just like that, 2021 is over. A year that began with so much hope and positivity with COVID vaccines and therapeutics ends with more of a whimper than a bang on the health front. However, the exact opposite happened on the financial market front where equities and other “risk on” assets closed at or near all-time highs. The fourth quarter of 2021 was relatively quiet, or as quiet as anyone could expect with a global pandemic nearing the beginning […]
Read More
Date: February 1, 2022
Here’s The Bounce
What a nice turnaround on Friday! One person I read attributed it to “everyone” not working because of the impending blizzard on Saturday. That was a new one for me after 32 years in the business. In the summer, those same people blame The Hamptons for August declines. Now we’re crediting Mother Nature with rallies. Oh boy. Anyway, I have often written that Friday bottoms are not to be trusted and that they’re rare. However, can we really say Friday […]
Read More
Date: January 31, 2022
Stock Market Struggling to Find a Low
This past Monday we saw the first sign of panic and despair in the stock market. It was enough to see a massive intra-day reversal. In the old days, you know, like before Q4 2018, we used to call Monday the internal or momentum low. That’s the low where the majority of stocks are at their worst. In 2008 that low was in October, even though we didn’t see the final price bottom until March 2009. Look at the two […]
Read More
Date: January 28, 2022
Fed Announcement Day – Let the Fireworks Continue!
Sorry for the delay in getting this published. We lost power in the office and that set everything back. I did enjoy zipping home to work from there for an hour and eating Costco mini chocolate chips cookies! Fed Chair Jay Powell and the FOMC conclude their first two-day meeting of 2022 today with a statement at 2pm and press conference to follow. It is no secret that the Fed’s taper plan should conclude in March and that interest rates […]
Read More
Date: January 26, 2022
The Plunge is Here – Next Opportunity for Bottom is Before Wednesday & The Fed
Before I dive in, here are the last two media segments I did over the last week or so with very specific comments on the markets over the short and intermediate-term. Investors are overloaded with mega cap tech stocks Fearless Forecast 2022 – UPDATED Three straight days of heavy selling for the stock market with Friday looking the ugliest. Wherever this decline finds a low, the fact that the selling is accelerating means that at least a trading low should […]
Read More
Date: January 24, 2022
How Tom and Sally Handled Unexpected Calamities With Very Different Results
I’d be hard-pressed to find two more-contrasting high net worth investing strategies than those employed by Tom and Sally (real people, fictitious names). Each faced turbulent markets – Tom at the start of the Great Recession and Sally during the dot.com boom, but their responses were quite different. I think it’s instructive to see what drove them to make their decisions and the outcomes those decisions produced. Tom’s Unsuccessful Strategy Tom, 62, is an intelligent, hard-working New Haven executive, […]
Read More
Date: January 24, 2022
Market Craving Some Better Behavior
Last Friday’s little reversal is a distant memory. Tuesday saw selling right out of the gate. On Wednesday and Thursday, the bulls went to work in the morning, exactly what I did not want to see. When markets are pulling back or correcting, you would rather see weak openings that flush out sellers and entice the bulls to do some buying. The last two days broke the hearts of the bulls as early strength was heavy sold with stocks cratering […]
Read More
Date: January 21, 2022
Stocks On Their Heels Again – Looking For Low Now
Markets are still high heightened but not high volatility as the massive shift out of growth and technology and into value and cyclicals continues. Although the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 have seen very orderly, routine and modest pullbacks of less than 5%, the same cannot be said of the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 which are down roughly 6%, 13% and 8% respectively. And there is damage being done, make no mistake about it. Last Wednesday ended […]
Read More
Date: January 18, 2022
Bulls Immediately Step Up – Inflation HOTTTT
In Monday’s post, I offered that if the pullback was normal, routine and healthy, the bulls would immediately step up. What I didn’t realize was they were going to bull rush the bears literally right away on Monday morning. And with that came the media’s gush over the “historic” price reversal. No it wasn’t. When I look at the major stock market indices, all of them show constructive behavior this week. And as I wrote about in my forecast for […]
Read More
Date: January 12, 2022
2022 Is Already Frustrating
On Friday we learned that the employment picture continues to disappoint. 199,000 new jobs were created in December which was almost 300,000 below the whisper number economists were expecting. This is not a new trend, but one that has been in place for almost a year. Wages soared yet again to 5% over the past year and that is both cause to celebrate for the worker but be concerned about inflation. Far too many do not understand how wages impact […]
Read More
Date: January 10, 2022
Why Karen’s Decision About Social Security is Just Plain Wrong
Your golden years can be a wonderful time in your life. You can enjoy the fruits of decades of labor, and prudent investing. Your retirement income is greatly determined by your savings, investing, pensions and other retirement savings. Social security is also a major determinant of your retirement income, and therefore, your standard of living as a retiree. But, before you begin taking social security, consider the pitfalls of taking it too early! “Karen” is a friend of a client […]
Read More
Date: January 10, 2022
Santa Came, Q4 & 2021 Also Up – Forecasting 2022
In November and December the media was all abuzz with the Santa Claus Rally (SCR). Would Santa arrive? Stocks were under mild pressure several times although many pundits repeatedly forecast that the highs were in for the year and there would be no year-end rally. In fact, a 10% correction had already started. Well, we all know how that ended for the bears and naysayers. Not too well. And we all know that there was no accountability for those who […]
Read More
Date: January 7, 2022
