Huge Market Day w/ Powell & Inflation
All summer, Fed watchers have been pointing to August 27 at 10am, for that was when Chair Jay Powell would deliver his keynote remarks at the Fed’s annual spa retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. FYI, the conference has been moved to virtual and Powell’s speech will be televised nationally. Heading up to the speech, Fed heads have been paraded out with a common theme and message. It’s time to taper. It’s time to announce the reduction of asset purchases which […]
Read More
Date: August 27, 2021
No Key Sectors Supporting Bulls
The stock market begins the new week looking to continue to bounce back from the mild pullback last week. As I have written before, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have barely seen any weakness, but the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have seen meaningful pullbacks over the past few months. In what would be the most unlikely of scenarios, it would be super interesting and surprising if the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 gathered themselves for a run to […]
Read More
Date: August 23, 2021
Tech Holding Up Indices, For Now
Of course, a hurricane is coming to New England this weekend. After years of denying we needed a generator, I took the plunge in March, only to find out that one tiny part was on back order until June. Then it was July and now August. Lucky me, the part came in this week, but the electrician cannot do the install because he is busy getting generators ready for the storm. So, I am sure that we will lose power […]
Read More
Date: August 20, 2021
Market Not Running on All Cylinders
I keep chuckling when I listen to people talk about the pullback in stocks. After all folks, the S&P 500 is one single day removed from all-time highs. Same for the Dow Industrials. The NASDAQ 100 is close. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 continue to lag and warn that something isn’t right. However, none of my key sectors are at or close to new highs, another warning sign. Ask me which sectors are at new relative highs. Go ahead. […]
Read More
Date: August 18, 2021
Lots of Warning Signs Remain But Geopolitics Isn’t Among Them
I have read a number of articles comparing Kabul falling to Saigon falling in 1975. In both cases the markets were nonplussed and behaved within the realm of normalcy. That’s where we are today. Stocks look to open lower, but nothing out of the ordinary. The markets have bigger warnings as I have been discussing for weeks that to worry about an event halfway around the world that has zero economic significance. Regardless of how you felt about our presence […]
Read More
Date: August 16, 2021
Markets Continue to React Counterintuitively to Inflation
As you know my thinking regarding inflation has changed over the past few months following the reports released in May and June. Both of those showed white hot inflation with very counterintuitive market reaction. By that, I mean that the securities that should have fallen hard actually rallied and vice versa. After the April report was released in mid-May I thought it was just an anomaly, but back to back odd reactions had me rethinking my thesis. Take a look […]
Read More
Date: August 13, 2021
***Q2 Client Update*** – Excerpts
Many people like to read my very brief quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop right now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. It seemed like yesterday when every piece of news was dark and uncertain. People were acutely concerned about their survival and less about their finances. 2020 was a year where time almost stood still. 2021 could not have been any more the […]
Read More
Date: August 11, 2021
Warning Signs Abound
Stocks begin the new week with most of the same challenges as I have been discussing. The five major stock market indices are not all in syn as the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 remain well below their all-time highs. While semis and discretionary are at or near new highs, transports and banks are well below. The NYSE A/D Line is repairing itself, but it is still a strong few days from new highs. Whether we are looking at the […]
Read More
Date: August 9, 2021
7 Reasons You May Want to Switch Financial Advisors
Your financial advisor owes you attentive, personalized service that produces successful results. Unfortunately, some financial advisors tend to take their clients for granted. Others turn out to be disappointments for a variety of reasons. You don’t have to put up with a financial advisor who falls short of your expectations and requirements. Instead, you can exercise your prerogative to switch to a new financial advisor who will provide you the treatment you deserve. How? Check out our new guide: Switching […]
Read More
Date: August 9, 2021
Some Canaries Are Struggling to Breathe
On Friday the government will release the July non farm payrolls report, better known as the monthly employment report. The payroll firm, ADP, released their monthly report on Wednesday and it showed a much weaker jobs market than most thought possible. Interestingly, neither the stock nor bond market reacted well. I put very little stock in the ADP report has its correlation to the real one is underwhelming. In other words it has some nice hits and some big strikeouts. […]
Read More
Date: August 5, 2021
August Has Not Been Kind to the Bulls
Seriously, how can we be into August already? 2021 is flying by at warp speed and I am not liking it! It needs to slow down Kemosabe. I need some time to breathe, smell the flowers and catch up. I had an extra hour of time today as my wife and I drove home from Lyman Orchards after a quick peach and blueberry pick. Right after we passed the exit before ours, traffic ground to a standstill with four miles […]
Read More
Date: August 2, 2021
Huge News Week But Not Much Movement & No Surgery
Lots of interesting news, but not much in the way of market action. Today is the last day of the month, but the stock market is looking weaker based on the ongoing China debacle and Amazon. I won’t look too deep into this as the week ends. I remain on guard for a summer peak in stock prices that leads to a 7-11% decline. Getting back to the news, on Thursday we had the much anticipated Robinhood IPO although I […]
Read More
Date: July 30, 2021
Fed Day & Powell Laughing at Me – Sell The News on Earnings
Coming in to the week, there was so much to focus on, so much to worry about for the media. Delta variant, new mask rules, the Fed meeting and every mega cap tech stock reporting earnings. All I heard was about the massive fireworks that would be coming. Well folks, so far, there has been nothing. Even with Apple, Microsoft and Google reporting at the same time, there has barely been a sparkler. And all three companies had stellar quarters. […]
Read More
Date: July 28, 2021
Retirement Planning CT: Can I Still Retire Post-COVID-19?
As the world transitions to life post-pandemic, some things will never be the same. For a lot of people, that’s retirement. According to recent reports, about 50 percent of working adults say the economic consequences of COVID-19 will make it harder for them to achieve their financial goals. Of these people, 44 percent believe it will take them three years, if not longer, to get back to where they were a year ago. This includes many high-income business owners, especially […]
Read More
Date: July 26, 2021
All-Time Highs But Some Cracks in the Pavement
The stock market begins the new week with the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 at all-time highs. That’s the good news. However, the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 (chart below) are lagging badly. That’s not so good. Additionally, the number of stocks participating in the rally is underwhelming, not to mention that sector leadership is less than inspiring. That’s worse. Below you can see one of my favorite canaries in the coal mine, the NYSE Advance/Decline Line which […]
Read More
Date: July 26, 2021
I Could Be Wrong
On Monday there was a large point drop, but relatively small percentage drop in the stock market. I did not have strong conviction whether that was a few day wonder or the beginning of a mid-single digit pullback. And frankly, I still do not have strong conviction on this. While the bounce in price since Monday has been impressive, market participation has been underwhelming. As you know, I came into this week having raised a little cash and/or hedged a […]
Read More
Date: July 23, 2021
Was That It? Pullback Over?
My, my, my, what a difference a day makes. The stock market went from the world ending to partying like it’s 1999 in the span of 18 hours. Oh how I enjoyed the pundits falling over themselves espousing their bearishness on Monday and turning tail on Tuesday. In my case, as you know, I wrote about playing some defense last week. And we did with some sales and hedging. After Monday’s rout I bought a small cap index, Cathie Woods’ […]
Read More
Date: July 21, 2021
Bears Getting to Dance
The new week begins and the bears are out and about. If you listen to the morning media and pundits, you would think a repeat of March 2020 is here. I always laugh how people report the stock market in terms of points in the Dow Industrials. That’s more for shock value and attention than it is for relevance. Remember, when numbers get big, they sound much more important. A 1000 point move is supposed to happen with more regularity […]
Read More
Date: July 19, 2021
Starting to Play Some Defense
Some of our models went neutral and some portfolios (remember, we have 18 strategies) reduced risk exposure to the largest degree since last September. We did a lot of outright selling as well as hedging on Tuesday, but those strategies are still net long risk. The models did not turn outright negative just yet. And they may not. As you know, while some of the major stock market indices have been making fresh new highs, the rising tide is no […]
Read More
Date: July 16, 2021
Low Stress in Markets But Inflation Report Coming Up
On Friday we had the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 all at new highs. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 were absent. It just didn’t seem like a celebratory day. Perhaps, it was because the rising tide is not lifting all ships as I mentioned on Thursday. But the market is also not showing stress on the credit side either. Looking below at the high yield bond ETF, you can see that it is just a few pennies […]
Read More
Date: July 12, 2021
