FedEx Offering Many Market and Economic Clues
After one of the wilder stock market days on Thursday, stocks could not follow through on Friday after an up opening. While I wouldn’t say it is the end of the world, stocks absolutely, positively must hold above Thursday’s low. Otherwise, the bears take control yet again. This Friday is the expiration for October options. Seasonally, it is a strong period through Thursday’s close, so it will be telling if stocks stink it up. What’s interesting as the new week […]
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Date: October 17, 2022
Bells May Not Be Ringing But They Are Being Polished
Geez, it only took one day before I got my wish. As you know I have been skeptical that the September 30th bottom would hold having closed on the screws of the low of the day, week, month and quarter. But that didn’t mean the market had to collapse beneath it. And I was concerned that price hadn’t reacted with a surge in volatility as it approached and/or breached the recent lows. Well folks, that all changed on Thursday. I […]
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Date: October 14, 2022
Barrage of Bad News – Looking for Volatility to Spike
I can always find things that concern me in the markets just as easily as things that are sanguine. Lately, it’s bothered me that the bottom on September 30th came on the screws of the low for the day, week, month and quarter. I couldn’t find a single comparable low and that’s why I thought those price levels had to be breached before the stock market could bottom. So far, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have cooperated and cleaned […]
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Date: October 12, 2022
Strong Employment Not Good For Stocks – Good News = Bad News
Today is Columbus Day, at least that’s what it says in my Outlook calendar. My kids tell me I can’t use that name anymore. Whatever today is called, the seasonal trend is mildly positive. Stocks ended last week on a sour note although they did fill the price gap left by last Tuesday’s big up opening. The employment data was softer than the prior month but it still came in stronger than expected with the unemployment rate back down to […]
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Date: October 10, 2022
Buying Stampede, Bull Market or Bull Trap, Aaron Judge & Fox Business
I am excited to join the most dapper man on TV, Charles Payne, on Fox Business today 2:45pm discussing the stock market’s bottom, surge potential and what investors could be buying. Thank you to all who attended our quarterly webinar last night where we reviewed the events of Q3, discussed the performance of our 18 strategies and took a sneak peak at how Q4 looks. The recording should be available this afternoon. The stock market continues to be volatile and […]
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Date: October 7, 2022
New Bull Market or Just Another Bounce?
Good thing not much has happened since I last published on Monday. And yes, I am kidding. I was off for Yom Kippur on Wednesday so that’s why I did not post. The stock market gapped up at the open on Monday and did not look back. The same thing happened on Tuesday. On Wednesday it gapped down at the open and rallied all day. Do you see the trend? Notice how different this week has been from the last […]
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Date: October 6, 2022
Ready or Not, October is Here – Major Bottom Coming
Seasonal trends are like headwinds and tailwinds. They typically do not act as buy or sell signals. Nonetheless, the trends I wrote about a month ago definitely played out. The S&P 500 lost 10% in September and its reputation as a cruel month plays out again. When I penned September is a Cruel Month I did not think that September would be down 10%. That’s a huge outlier in the distribution of monthly returns. And let’s recall that the stock […]
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Date: October 3, 2022
Stock Market Not Reacting To The June Lows Yet
So far, the stock market has not responded to the June lows, meaning that we didn’t see any trap door selling nor a rush of buying. The reaction has been muted. I don’t think that helps. You can see the S&P 500 below, but the rest look similar except for the Dow Industrials. Okay. I will show the Dow as well below. It broke the June lows but hasn’t been able to quickly get back above it. What all this […]
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Date: September 30, 2022
Should Your IRA Include Real-Estate Investments?
If you have a self-directed IRA, you can hold a variety of different investments, such as stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. In fact, this kind of retirement plan allows investing in all types of real estate, including commercial properties and residential homes. However, before you decide to pursue this option, let’s examine some of the pros and cons of utilizing your IRA this way. The following topics are discussed below: What is a self-directed IRA (SIDRA)? The differences between SIDRAs […]
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Date: September 29, 2022
Something Breaking Part II
So far, the only index to really break the June lows has been the Dow Industrials. The S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 did a quick dive and recovery which likely stopped out many traders. At this point that does not qualify as a terminating move from which a major rally emerges although the stock market is getting closer both in terms of price and time. I have been targeting October and its bear killing history and nothing has […]
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Date: September 28, 2022
The Rocky Road & Silver Lining – How & When The Stock Market Bottoms
Stocks fell hard again on Thursday and Friday morning before firming into the weekend during the last two hours. Late day Friday comebacks are always suspect but a low isn’t impossible. In fact, the stock market should be close to at least a trading low and likely this week before perhaps rolling over to one more decline before the ultimate bottom. Rosh Hashanah begins tonight at sundown and the old adage is to sell before the holiday and buy when […]
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Date: September 26, 2022
Something Breaking Somewhere
The S&P 500 ended last week at 3873. Today, it stands at 3757. Unless the index rallies more than 100 points today, the weakest week in the weakest month in the weakest year will have struck again. Some wondered whether last week’s weakness was front running this week. We now know that was not the case. The odds were high that this week would be down, clearly not by this magnitude because long-term studies never get that right with so […]
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Date: September 23, 2022
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Recession & 50% Rally in Stocks***
Here we go again. Today is Fed day. I am sure we will hear that it is the single most important decision the Fed has ever made. Blah, blah, blah. Powell and the Fed have been crystal clear, of late. Rates will continue higher until something is broken, or thereabouts. Before I get further into this, let me state that the model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Given that stocks have sold […]
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Date: September 21, 2022
Weakest Week – Weakest Month – Weakest Year
If you ever wanted to see how the four big quarterly expirations can impact stock prices, look no further than last Friday afternoon. Stocks opened lower and traded sideways until the lunchtime lull ended around 2pm. And then the big players had to square up their books into the close which likely caused the sharp rally into 4pm. We always hear pundits whine and moan about the computer algorithms, especially when downside movements are exacerbated. We rarely investors complain on […]
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Date: September 19, 2022
Is Your Financial Advisor Overcharging You?
As you get older, it’s important to have a financial plan in place. This can help to make sure your golden years are secure and comfortable—and for most people, that means hiring a wealth manager. However, with so many options on the market, it can be difficult to know whether your financial advisor is really making the best decisions for your money over the long term. If you’re concerned that you might be getting overcharged, there are some signs to […]
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Date: September 19, 2022
Stocks Cranky as 2-Year Note Soars Again
On Wednesday I shared that huge, outsized plunges like we saw on Tuesday do not typically mark the final low. We didn’t have to wait long as stocks fell again on Thursday below Tuesday’s low and Friday’s open looks to be another very weak one. I mentioned how important the U.S. dollar was to the markets and how seeing it peak was essential for stocks and bonds to form a low. Today, let’s look at the 2-year treasury note. It’s […]
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Date: September 16, 2022
Stocks Collapse, Bottom Not In & Fox Business Calls
First, I am super excited to join my friend and the most dapper man on TV, Charles Payne, on Fox Business between 2 & 3pm today discussing the mini-crash, what lies ahead and where opportunities lie for investors. Well, well, well as my daughter used to say all the time as a toddler when trying to explain herself out of something. Tuesday was certainly an interesting day. The Consumer Price Index didn’t cooperate as so many pundits had predicted. And […]
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Date: September 14, 2022
9-11, Queen E, Greenback & What August Portends
Before I dive into the matters at hand, yesterday was 9-11. Every year, either live or DVR, I watch the names being read of those lost and listen for my old friends’ names. It’s a solemn reminder to Never Forget and as a firm continue to support top notch 9-11 charities like Tunnel to Towers. As we have in the past, we will donate 100% of the profits for the day to these causes on behalf of our clients. 35 […]
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Date: September 12, 2022
For The Economy, The Worst is Yet to Come
In my last update on Tuesday, I spoke about how crummy the stock market looked but that it was oversold enough to bounce this week. In addition, I said that when August closes weak, the odds heavily favor a post-Labor Day bounce. And the market has had a nice week for the bulls with pre-market showing good gains to begin the day. While the S&P 500 may have room to move up to 4100-4150, I do not believe the September […]
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Date: September 9, 2022
Deluge
Labor Day weekend in New England is always bittersweet as the unofficial end of summer and back to school. The drought-stricken Northeast is finally getting some relief and currently in a deluge. I think we have 5 inches of rain so far and it’s still coming down in buckets. The stock market has been no different of late with a deluge of its own, falling almost 9% since the mid-August peak and back to down 19% on the year. Some […]
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Date: September 6, 2022
