Bulls Immediately Step Up – Inflation HOTTTT
In Monday’s post, I offered that if the pullback was normal, routine and healthy, the bulls would immediately step up. What I didn’t realize was they were going to bull rush the bears literally right away on Monday morning. And with that came the media’s gush over the “historic” price reversal. No it wasn’t. When I look at the major stock market indices, all of them show constructive behavior this week. And as I wrote about in my forecast for […]
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Date: January 12, 2022
2022 Is Already Frustrating
On Friday we learned that the employment picture continues to disappoint. 199,000 new jobs were created in December which was almost 300,000 below the whisper number economists were expecting. This is not a new trend, but one that has been in place for almost a year. Wages soared yet again to 5% over the past year and that is both cause to celebrate for the worker but be concerned about inflation. Far too many do not understand how wages impact […]
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Date: January 10, 2022
Why Karen’s Decision About Social Security is Just Plain Wrong
Your golden years can be a wonderful time in your life. You can enjoy the fruits of decades of labor, and prudent investing. Your retirement income is greatly determined by your savings, investing, pensions and other retirement savings. Social security is also a major determinant of your retirement income, and therefore, your standard of living as a retiree. But, before you begin taking social security, consider the pitfalls of taking it too early! “Karen” is a friend of a client […]
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Date: January 10, 2022
Santa Came, Q4 & 2021 Also Up – Forecasting 2022
In November and December the media was all abuzz with the Santa Claus Rally (SCR). Would Santa arrive? Stocks were under mild pressure several times although many pundits repeatedly forecast that the highs were in for the year and there would be no year-end rally. In fact, a 10% correction had already started. Well, we all know how that ended for the bears and naysayers. Not too well. And we all know that there was no accountability for those who […]
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Date: January 7, 2022
2022 Fearless Forecast – Patience & Quality
Each and every year, I spend some time in Q4 collecting my thoughts about how I see the next 12 months unfolding in the financial markets, economy, etc. Given how much media I did in Q4, most of my forecast is already in the public domain. I am happy to say that this is among the earliest I have actually put it all together in one place. Yeah me! While I do really enjoy looking into my super secret crystal […]
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Date: January 6, 2022
Bulls Should Begin 2022 With a Win
Here we go. 2021 is in the rear view mirror and 2022 begins. The last few minutes of 2021 did not end well for the stock market and it certainly looked like the computer programs were responsible for all of the movement. I fully expect that last woosh lower on the far right side of the chart below to be recovered early on Monday morning. The first trading day of the new year is seasonally very strong by a number […]
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Date: January 3, 2022
NASDAQ The Beast Today – This Is It!
To end 2021 I am going to join Fox Business’ Making Money at 2:55pm today with Ashley Webster in for Charles Payne to discuss what I am doing at year-end and if any of us in the business can perform like Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio. As Kenny Loggins famously said in his song, “This is it! Make no mistake where you are”. I have quoted Loggins dozens of times over the years and my friend, Michael Saul, always gets annoyed by […]
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Date: December 31, 2021
Is Everyone in Aspen or Still in the Hamptons?
In August “everyone” is supposedly in The Hamptons. Where are they supposedly now? Aspen? Vail? Florida? Vermont? The islands? It’s such a crock. I don’t know a single portfolio manager who literally takes off in August or at the end of the year without working. I can tell you this. “Everyone” was in the all hands on deck mode in 2018 for the entire month of December. And let’s not even begin to list all of the big moves we […]
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Date: December 29, 2021
Behavioral Finance: Why Kevin, Janet, Bruce and Carrie Made the Investment Decisions (and Mistakes) They Did
I recently attended a workshop where I had the opportunity to speak with several investors. Four stand out in my memory for the mistakes they made. Do any of them sound a bit like you? Kevin: Aversion to Risk Kevin, in his mid-50s, had always been afraid of the stock market. Most of his retirement money was tied up in fixed income securities, predominantly a mutual fund composed of Treasury bonds and notes. He did invest a little (about […]
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Date: December 27, 2021
Bulls Step Up and Continue Delivering -That Was Fun
I hope you enjoyed a nice three-day holiday weekend and everyone who observed had a great Christmas! Although many Jews head for Chinese food and the movies we have been fortunate enough to be included with Vermont friends and their Christmas feast. This year definitely did not disappoint as I was full after cocktails and appetizers and then had to scarf down my fair share of prime rib and a cornucopia of desserts that would make any foodie drool. I […]
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Date: December 26, 2021
Stock Market Bottom Hammered In – Year-End Rally SUPPOSED To Run
Well, well, well. Just when the bulls got to the point of no return, not really but it sounds good, they staved off a losing battle with the bears. Funny how that happens sometimes. If you watched my interviews on Yahoo Finance or TDA Network, I was pretty firm that I still thought stocks were bottoming right now and the year-end rally would still come albeit in an underwhelming fashion. And that how I played it with portfolios as we […]
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Date: December 22, 2021
Stock Market Not Doing What It Is “Supposed” To Do
The stock market ended last week on a sour note and looks to begin the new week on an equally sour note. For weeks I have written that something just ain’t right. I still feel that way although I still believe a low will be forged, well, right about now for a year-end rally. Small cap stocks are basically at their lowest point since Q1 2021 and mid cap stocks aren’t that far behind. I didn’t think this would happen […]
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Date: December 20, 2021
Why Mike’s Conservative Investment Strategy Can Be Very Risky
A new client, whom I’ll call “Mike,” recently came to me with questions about his investments. In his mid-forties, Mike had always been wary of losing money in the stock market. Apparently, he would rather have avoided losing $1 than making $5. But Mike knew something was wrong, as the value of his portfolio had remained stagnant for almost 10 years. He and I had a long talk. We identified several defects in his investment “strategy” that prevented him from […]
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Date: December 20, 2021
Fed Trend Shines But I Have Concerns
The worst kept secret was that the Fed was going to speed up its plan to taper asset purchases and that was announced on Wednesday. Jay Powell conducted the perfect press conference for the stock market and the bulls went home with huge smiles on their faces. I tweeted a few times and posted here that the FOMC trend was as strong as it ever gets for buying -.50% weakness in the morning and selling at the close. That tidy […]
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Date: December 16, 2021
Fed Announcement Day – Bulls On Their Heels
The FOMC concludes their two-day meeting today where they are expected to announce a faster taper plan with more interest rate hikes in 2022. This is something that should have been started 15 months ago when the inflation genie was fully out of the bottle. Jay Powell & Company are now fighting a different and tougher fight that will likely lead to an economic slowdown during the second half of 2022. My readers are certainly not surprised. After all, I […]
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Date: December 15, 2021
Inflation Peaking – Bulls Need to Step Up This Week
Last Friday the government released the Consumer Price Index which showed the highest inflation since 1981, 6.8%. I don’t think anyone in the U.S. would deny that inflation has been strong and rising for more than a year. Heck, it has been a theme of mine since the summer of 2020. As usual, the Fed has been behind the curve, insisting that it was “transitory”, whatever that really means. Powell & Company assured the country that it was nothing to […]
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Date: December 14, 2021
Bulls Best Not Fail Here
After two strong days for the bulls, the stock market took a breather on Wednesday and Thursday with the now important Consumer Price Index scheduled to be released on Friday morning. It should be a market mover and I am most keen on seeing reaction from long-term treasuries. Although it is a powerfully bullish time of year and the bulls certainly proved their mettle off of the recent lows, it would be significantly bearish for stocks to fail right here […]
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Date: December 10, 2021
Bulls Dominate
Well, well, well, the bulls certainly made some noise over the first two days of the week. I imagine the bears were not too concerned after Monday’s big bounce, but Tuesday likely induced the pain trade and forced many to reign in their bearishness. And if you recall from Monday’s post, that was precisely when there was a surge in bearish sentiment from the AAII survey. In the NASDAQ 100, a chart I posted the other day, price was right […]
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Date: December 8, 2021
Bears Surge – Stocks Still Looking For a Low
On Friday, yet again, the employment report laid a big egg as the economy created 210,000 new jobs versus the 600,000 that was expected. That is not good folks. However, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, even though the labor force participation rate increased to 61.8%. Those are both good signs. Yep, it’s as clear as mud. My thesis has been that November, December and into Q1 2022 would see a sharp increase in economic activity and strong jobs numbers. […]
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Date: December 6, 2021
Stocks Bounced and Declined – What Now? Omicron Not to Blame
Let me start out by reiterating what I have been offering for the past 5 weeks. Inflation is in the process of peaking. In late October with the good folks at Yahoo Finance, I was very firm about looking for inflation to peak between November and March. Few have joined my party which is A-Okay with me. It won’t even make my top 10 list of concerns for 2022. And with that, supply chain issues are no more by the […]
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Date: December 3, 2021
