Here’s The Bounce
What a nice turnaround on Friday! One person I read attributed it to “everyone” not working because of the impending blizzard on Saturday. That was a new one for me after 32 years in the business. In the summer, those same people blame The Hamptons for August declines. Now we’re crediting Mother Nature with rallies. Oh boy. Anyway, I have often written that Friday bottoms are not to be trusted and that they’re rare. However, can we really say Friday […]
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Date: January 31, 2022
Stock Market Struggling to Find a Low
This past Monday we saw the first sign of panic and despair in the stock market. It was enough to see a massive intra-day reversal. In the old days, you know, like before Q4 2018, we used to call Monday the internal or momentum low. That’s the low where the majority of stocks are at their worst. In 2008 that low was in October, even though we didn’t see the final price bottom until March 2009. Look at the two […]
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Date: January 28, 2022
Fed Announcement Day – Let the Fireworks Continue!
Sorry for the delay in getting this published. We lost power in the office and that set everything back. I did enjoy zipping home to work from there for an hour and eating Costco mini chocolate chips cookies! Fed Chair Jay Powell and the FOMC conclude their first two-day meeting of 2022 today with a statement at 2pm and press conference to follow. It is no secret that the Fed’s taper plan should conclude in March and that interest rates […]
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Date: January 26, 2022
The Plunge is Here – Next Opportunity for Bottom is Before Wednesday & The Fed
Before I dive in, here are the last two media segments I did over the last week or so with very specific comments on the markets over the short and intermediate-term. Investors are overloaded with mega cap tech stocks Fearless Forecast 2022 – UPDATED Three straight days of heavy selling for the stock market with Friday looking the ugliest. Wherever this decline finds a low, the fact that the selling is accelerating means that at least a trading low should […]
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Date: January 24, 2022
How Tom and Sally Handled Unexpected Calamities With Very Different Results
I’d be hard-pressed to find two more-contrasting high net worth investing strategies than those employed by Tom and Sally (real people, fictitious names). Each faced turbulent markets – Tom at the start of the Great Recession and Sally during the dot.com boom, but their responses were quite different. I think it’s instructive to see what drove them to make their decisions and the outcomes those decisions produced. Tom’s Unsuccessful Strategy Tom, 62, is an intelligent, hard-working New Haven executive, […]
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Date: January 24, 2022
Market Craving Some Better Behavior
Last Friday’s little reversal is a distant memory. Tuesday saw selling right out of the gate. On Wednesday and Thursday, the bulls went to work in the morning, exactly what I did not want to see. When markets are pulling back or correcting, you would rather see weak openings that flush out sellers and entice the bulls to do some buying. The last two days broke the hearts of the bulls as early strength was heavy sold with stocks cratering […]
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Date: January 21, 2022
Stocks On Their Heels Again – Looking For Low Now
Markets are still high heightened but not high volatility as the massive shift out of growth and technology and into value and cyclicals continues. Although the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 have seen very orderly, routine and modest pullbacks of less than 5%, the same cannot be said of the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 which are down roughly 6%, 13% and 8% respectively. And there is damage being done, make no mistake about it. Last Wednesday ended […]
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Date: January 18, 2022
Bulls Immediately Step Up – Inflation HOTTTT
In Monday’s post, I offered that if the pullback was normal, routine and healthy, the bulls would immediately step up. What I didn’t realize was they were going to bull rush the bears literally right away on Monday morning. And with that came the media’s gush over the “historic” price reversal. No it wasn’t. When I look at the major stock market indices, all of them show constructive behavior this week. And as I wrote about in my forecast for […]
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Date: January 12, 2022
2022 Is Already Frustrating
On Friday we learned that the employment picture continues to disappoint. 199,000 new jobs were created in December which was almost 300,000 below the whisper number economists were expecting. This is not a new trend, but one that has been in place for almost a year. Wages soared yet again to 5% over the past year and that is both cause to celebrate for the worker but be concerned about inflation. Far too many do not understand how wages impact […]
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Date: January 10, 2022
Why Karen’s Decision About Social Security is Just Plain Wrong
Your golden years can be a wonderful time in your life. You can enjoy the fruits of decades of labor, and prudent investing. Your retirement income is greatly determined by your savings, investing, pensions and other retirement savings. Social security is also a major determinant of your retirement income, and therefore, your standard of living as a retiree. But, before you begin taking social security, consider the pitfalls of taking it too early! “Karen” is a friend of a client […]
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Date: January 10, 2022
Santa Came, Q4 & 2021 Also Up – Forecasting 2022
In November and December the media was all abuzz with the Santa Claus Rally (SCR). Would Santa arrive? Stocks were under mild pressure several times although many pundits repeatedly forecast that the highs were in for the year and there would be no year-end rally. In fact, a 10% correction had already started. Well, we all know how that ended for the bears and naysayers. Not too well. And we all know that there was no accountability for those who […]
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Date: January 7, 2022
2022 Fearless Forecast – Patience & Quality
Each and every year, I spend some time in Q4 collecting my thoughts about how I see the next 12 months unfolding in the financial markets, economy, etc. Given how much media I did in Q4, most of my forecast is already in the public domain. I am happy to say that this is among the earliest I have actually put it all together in one place. Yeah me! While I do really enjoy looking into my super secret crystal […]
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Date: January 6, 2022
Bulls Should Begin 2022 With a Win
Here we go. 2021 is in the rear view mirror and 2022 begins. The last few minutes of 2021 did not end well for the stock market and it certainly looked like the computer programs were responsible for all of the movement. I fully expect that last woosh lower on the far right side of the chart below to be recovered early on Monday morning. The first trading day of the new year is seasonally very strong by a number […]
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Date: January 3, 2022
NASDAQ The Beast Today – This Is It!
To end 2021 I am going to join Fox Business’ Making Money at 2:55pm today with Ashley Webster in for Charles Payne to discuss what I am doing at year-end and if any of us in the business can perform like Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio. As Kenny Loggins famously said in his song, “This is it! Make no mistake where you are”. I have quoted Loggins dozens of times over the years and my friend, Michael Saul, always gets annoyed by […]
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Date: December 31, 2021
Is Everyone in Aspen or Still in the Hamptons?
In August “everyone” is supposedly in The Hamptons. Where are they supposedly now? Aspen? Vail? Florida? Vermont? The islands? It’s such a crock. I don’t know a single portfolio manager who literally takes off in August or at the end of the year without working. I can tell you this. “Everyone” was in the all hands on deck mode in 2018 for the entire month of December. And let’s not even begin to list all of the big moves we […]
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Date: December 29, 2021
Behavioral Finance: Why Kevin, Janet, Bruce and Carrie Made the Investment Decisions (and Mistakes) They Did
I recently attended a workshop where I had the opportunity to speak with several investors. Four stand out in my memory for the mistakes they made. Do any of them sound a bit like you? Kevin: Aversion to Risk Kevin, in his mid-50s, had always been afraid of the stock market. Most of his retirement money was tied up in fixed income securities, predominantly a mutual fund composed of Treasury bonds and notes. He did invest a little (about […]
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Date: December 27, 2021
Bulls Step Up and Continue Delivering -That Was Fun
I hope you enjoyed a nice three-day holiday weekend and everyone who observed had a great Christmas! Although many Jews head for Chinese food and the movies we have been fortunate enough to be included with Vermont friends and their Christmas feast. This year definitely did not disappoint as I was full after cocktails and appetizers and then had to scarf down my fair share of prime rib and a cornucopia of desserts that would make any foodie drool. I […]
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Date: December 26, 2021
Stock Market Bottom Hammered In – Year-End Rally SUPPOSED To Run
Well, well, well. Just when the bulls got to the point of no return, not really but it sounds good, they staved off a losing battle with the bears. Funny how that happens sometimes. If you watched my interviews on Yahoo Finance or TDA Network, I was pretty firm that I still thought stocks were bottoming right now and the year-end rally would still come albeit in an underwhelming fashion. And that how I played it with portfolios as we […]
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Date: December 22, 2021
Stock Market Not Doing What It Is “Supposed” To Do
The stock market ended last week on a sour note and looks to begin the new week on an equally sour note. For weeks I have written that something just ain’t right. I still feel that way although I still believe a low will be forged, well, right about now for a year-end rally. Small cap stocks are basically at their lowest point since Q1 2021 and mid cap stocks aren’t that far behind. I didn’t think this would happen […]
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Date: December 20, 2021
Why Mike’s Conservative Investment Strategy Can Be Very Risky
A new client, whom I’ll call “Mike,” recently came to me with questions about his investments. In his mid-forties, Mike had always been wary of losing money in the stock market. Apparently, he would rather have avoided losing $1 than making $5. But Mike knew something was wrong, as the value of his portfolio had remained stagnant for almost 10 years. He and I had a long talk. We identified several defects in his investment “strategy” that prevented him from […]
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Date: December 20, 2021
