9th Correction of the Bull Market – Dow 30,000 Coming in Q3
Before I begin the update as planned, I want to repeat what I have said to folks who have called and emailed. I think the bull market remains alive. I think Dow 30,000 will be hit during the summer. That anticipated rally may be the one that signals a new bear market. I think this week will be up for the stock market. It is quite possible that Friday’s low was the internal or momentum low from which the first […]
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Date: March 2, 2020
Coronavirus & Stock Market Playbook
As I mentioned the other day, I have been reading an incredible amount, just like many of you, about the Coronavirus. I even pestered a relative at the CDC as well as my friend who runs a research lab at Yale for their opinions. Interestingly, the professionals are a whole lot less alarmed than the masses. The two I annoyed both texted me science articles of why Corona is just another in a long line of bad viruses to be […]
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Date: February 27, 2020
Putting 1000 Points into Perspective & Selling Gold
Stocks are set for a feeble bounce at the open today after a 1000 point drubbing to begin the new week. 1000 Dow points today equals roughly 3.5%. While Monday was the third largest point decline in history, it only ranked as 254th of all declines since 1896 according to my friend Ryan Detrick from LPL. Since 1950 there have been 103 3%+ declines in the stock market.The crash of 1987 was 22.5% in one day. Today, that would have […]
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Date: February 25, 2020
AH HA! The Gap of Recognition? Corona Crash
Global stock markets are red and very ugly as the Coronavirus has been spreading to European countries like Italy. I think the problem is that the markets don’t know what they don’t know. In other words, there is a world of uncertainty out there and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. As I wrote last week, the market doesn’t care until it cares and then it really cares. Over the past two months, I have repeatedly written about bullish sentiment […]
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Date: February 24, 2020
Coronavirus Back on Top. Japanese Yen Causing Dislocations.
Stocks had been trading pretty much immune to the daily headlines regarding Corona even though everyone had known there would be economic impact. It’s like everything else in the markets. It doesn’t matter until it matters and then it matters in a huge way. That was best seen in 2005, 2006 and 2007 with the financial crisis. Don’t misunderstand; I am not saying that Corona is anything like the financial crisis. On Thursday and at least the morning on Friday, […]
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Date: February 21, 2020
Historic Greed. Media Day & Stock Picks
I am excited to co-host Yahoo Finance’s On The Move from 11:30am to 1:00pm today talking about the DNC’s debate last night, an historic level of greed in the stock market, NFL playoffs and a reveal of an upcoming ebook I am writing. After that, I get to join my old friend, Charles Payne, on Fox Business’ Making Money at 2:00pm for a segment discussing the meteoric rise in stocks and where to put your money. Yesterday from the office, […]
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Date: February 20, 2020
January Barometer – Another Indicator to Debunk or Not
During the end of January to early February each year, there is an annual discussion regarding the January Barometer, another indicator which supposedly has a great track record of predicting the return for the calendar year. This indicator was created and made popular by Yale Hirsch, founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Basically, it says that as January goes, so goes the calendar year. Simple enough, right? The Almanac claims a “success rate” in excess of 80% which seems pretty […]
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Date: February 12, 2020
Bulls Running. All Not Great. Dollar Surges w/ Silent Media
After stocks peaked a few weeks ago and the Coronavirus was blamed, I talked about a trading range setting in as one of my three scenarios. That scenario was the most middle of the road. With the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 scoring new highs, the most immediate negative scenario has been ruled out. We are left with whether stocks will pause and remain in the loose range or accelerate to the upside and run higher. There is clearly an […]
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Date: February 11, 2020
I Didn’t See That Coming
While I was looking for the stock market to begin the bottoming process on Monday, I definitely did not think that stocks would literally rip to new highs in three days. That was a much less likely scenario and one that would bother me. To be exact here, the NASDAQ 100 is at new highs with the S&P 500 right there. The Dow, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are not. We will see where they end up at week’s end. […]
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Date: February 5, 2020
Not Looking Like a Full-Fledged Correction
On the surface Friday looked like one of the those “puke” days when anything and everything go down. It was an ugly day, but I didn’t see evidence of investors in full panic mode nor selling at any price just to get out and relieve the pain. Friday looked like the makings of an internal or momentum low where selling and would be at its worst for this decline. Of course, one day later, it’s only a guess until there […]
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Date: February 3, 2020
Trading Range Being Established
As I have been discussing, the stock was longing for a reason to decline and it seems to have found it in Coronavirus. Whether it was that or something else, stocks were much in need of a pullback. As you know, sentiment had reached the frothiest of frothy levels, but the foundation remained solid. That usually leads to your garden variety short, sharp pullback, to at least get sentiment back to neutral. I don’t think we have the set up […]
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Date: January 31, 2020
Media Day, Fed, Coronavirus & More Today
I am excited to join Yahoo Finance’s On The Move from 10:20am to 10:30am discussing the Coronavirus’ impact on the markets and if the worst is behind the markets. After that, the TD Ameritrade Network is next to give a market update and offer some stock picks. I have to admit; it’s been tough to find fresh ideas after such a strong rally since October. I keep waiting and waiting for the traditional energy names to set up, but that’s […]
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Date: January 29, 2020
The Excuse to Go Down
Last Friday, after what seemed like Coronavirus avoidance, stocks reversed sharply to the downside. Been there before. Got a tee shirt. One day patterns look amazing on a chart when they work, but foolish when they don’t. Today, it looks like we will see a nasty down opening which most are blaming on the spread of the virus over the weekend although some have wrongly opined that this is all about Bernie Sanders’ rise in Iowa. That’s just nonsense. Markets […]
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Date: January 27, 2020
Bulls Ignoring Corona et al
Good Friday Morning! Sorry I have been AWOL this week. Between the holiday on Monday and being in Boston on Wednesday, my schedule has been jam packed. Amazingly, with full on impeachment and the Coronovirus, stocks did not even hiccup this week. And that’s still with an historic level of greedy sentiment that just keeps on getting more extreme. One thing is for sure and that’s something I have said forever; price is the final arbiter. That means that nothing […]
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Date: January 24, 2020
Investor Behavior is now Very Dangerous
It seems like every single day stocks up higher, pullback and then rally into the close. It’s been one of those truly historic runs since December 3 where you would be hard-pressed to find any weakness. Those heavily invested are just sitting back, enjoying the gains and smiling. Those on the outside looking in are very frustrated and anxious to buy any discernible pullback at all. While we mark all of our strategies on a daily basis, I rarely give […]
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Date: January 17, 2020
That Was Quick
On Monday I wrote about a low risk opportunity for the bears with very well defined risk. Market sentiment had reached an historic extreme as investors had become beyond bullish and giddy. They are downright greedy. Market greed isn’t corrected quickly nor painlessly. It normally takes a sharp decline in stocks to create some fear and panic that things have changed. The problem with playing this is that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. With that […]
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Date: January 15, 2020
An Opportunity for the Bears
Since mid-November, I have often discussed sentiment in the stock market. Plainly put, investors have been very confident to the point of being greedy and giddy to an historic extreme. We last saw that behavior in January 2018 which led to a 13% stock market decline to resolve the condition. Of course, there were other factors that led to that decline, like some cracks in the market’s foundation, something I am not seeing today. When I have a little more […]
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Date: January 13, 2020
Early January Indicator Calls for More Upside While Oil & Gold Hit Peaks
With the much ballyhooed Santa Claus Rally out of the way which I really reduced to meaningless in the grand scheme of things, the media has turned its attention to the Early January Indicator (EJI). As Yale Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac fame discovered, as goes the first five days of January, so goes the rest of the year. Since 1990 when the EJI is positive, stocks end the year higher 78% of the time versus 74% for any random […]
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Date: January 9, 2020
Santa Called. Bulls Excited on Wall. Could There be a Fall?
Although it wasn’t much for the bulls to celebrate, Santa Claus did call to Broad & Wall. The last five days of 2019 plus the first two days of 2020 finished slightly in the green for the &P 500 by 0.34%. The media would have you believe that this 7 day trading period now holds untold fortunes for stock investors versus any old random year. That’s simply not the case, even when giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt […]
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Date: January 6, 2020
A Little Taste for the Bears – Santa Still in Play
Stocks roared out of the gate to begin 2020 and it certainly felt like the masses were buying hand over fist. However, let’s remember that this is a holiday-shortened week and I don’t think everyone is back to their normal schedules. With stocks closing at their highs for the day, it’s very unlikely that any peak of importance was seen. Several times last week I mentioned my last 5 and Santa Claus Rally research. The last 5 was reduced to […]
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Date: January 3, 2020
