Stop Touting the News
I can’t keep track of how many times I have said, it’s not what the news is, but rather, how stocks react. If there is one adage that has served me incredibly well in my 32 years in the business, it’s that one. Yet people continue to do the “but, but, but”. The market is usually right. Those who make it a methodology to fight it often end up in failure. There has been a dizzying number of Q1 earnings […]
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Date: April 30, 2021
Fed Day is Here and I am Not Celebrating
It’s Fed day and these meetings should all take on some significance going forward as Powell et al should begin to hint at less accommodation. However, the Fed learned their lesson in 2013 with the Taper Tantrum and will make sure the runway is long and clear. Although I have so been enjoying the fruits of their labor since last April and I assume clients and investors have as well, if I sat in Jay Powell’s seat, I would already […]
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Date: April 28, 2021
New Bulls Die Hard
While Friday was a really nice day for the bulls into about 3:30, the bears did manage to make a little noise into the weekend. Still, there were several constructive elements to the day. Market internals were strong and sector leadership was good. Additionally, the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 which had been lagging continued their recent wake up to power higher. Over the last week or so, I have offered that the stock market could begin a series of […]
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Date: April 26, 2021
Biden’s Cap Gains Plan a Disaster
I love when people ask me what could derail the market, any market for that matter. Lately, I have said it won’t be COVID or a third world nation with nukes. However, it could certainly be a monetary policy pivot shift by the Fed or definitely be a fiscal or tax policy change in DC. On Thursday we learned about the Biden administration’s proposed seminal change in capital gains taxes to a maximum of 43.40% for the highest income earners. […]
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Date: April 23, 2021
Time for the Bulls to Step Up
Stocks have now seen back to back down days with pre-market activity pointing to red this morning. The themes have been the same with the small cap Russell 2000 leading the way lower since it peaked on March 15. Remember that the other major indices saw their highs last week. Today should be an interesting day. With a lower open anticipated, I would be a buyer of things that have been hit harder of late, even if only for a […]
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Date: April 21, 2021
How Do You Eat an Elephant?
We begin the new week with 7 yards of fresh mulch still sitting in my driveway, down from the 8 that was dumped on Saturday. It’s a big pile. How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time. How do you spread all that mulch? One wheelbarrow at a time. As I tell my kids when they complain about helping, that’s why we had you guys, to be put to work. For the past few weeks, stocks have […]
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Date: April 19, 2021
Retirement Planning Connecticut: Staggering Benefits and Retirement with Your Spouse
Some say that a part of the American dream is for a couple to retire at the same time and enjoy their Golden Years doing everything together. The American reality may be something different. How to arrange your finances so that you, as a couple, don’t outlive your money and still have an enjoyable retirement lifestyle can be a complicated process. You cannot ignore the psychological effects that can accompany retirement, effects that can multiply if you both retire at […]
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Date: April 19, 2021
Two Small Cracks in the Pavement
The bulls just won’t give up. It’s been super impressive with some of the most powerful momentum I have ever seen. But, it’s not unprecedented. When I look more closely I can find a few small cracks in the pavement which I will review today. As you know, I start my analysis with the major stock market indices. They are mostly in gear to the upside. However, the Russell 2000 which is for small companies is lagging behind. Below on […]
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Date: April 16, 2021
Big Market Day – Hard to Find New Buys
It’s such a big day today. First, we have one of the highest profile IPOs of all-time coming out today on the NASDAQ in Coinbase, the cryptocurrency supermarket. All I hear are people just gushing about the company and saying that no one should worry about its Dotcom’esque valuation. One analyst is calling for $600 while a pundit was in the four figures. Good thing we don’t have epic greed and euphoria! Q1 earnings season also kicks off today with […]
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Date: April 14, 2021
Bulls Large and In Charge as Inflation Runs HOT
Friday was yet another win for the bulls although the market’s internals were nothing to celebrate. They weren’t negative, but they were less than inspiring. This has been an on again, off again thing, but I won’t start to worry unless it becomes consistent. When I look at the indices the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 are behaving the best, followed by the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 400. The Russell 2000 (small caps) is lagging and looking like it wants […]
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Date: April 12, 2021
Tech Back In Vogue as Earnings Season Set to Begin
Stocks and the financial markets continue to behave well. While we remain in the world of epic greed and euphoria it is still balanced off by a solid market foundation and upward momentum. Eventually one will fade which will lead to an outsized move in one direction. My strong sense is that it will be the latter and a 10%+ correction will ensue down the road. Although April is only a week old we have seen a reversion back to […]
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Date: April 7, 2021
Amazing April Begins
After a long holiday weekend, the first week of April begins with the bulls looking to build on the across the board strength from last Thursday. Small concern was definitely starting to creep in last week as participation in the rally was waning. Thursday was only one single day, but participation was a whole lot better. We will see what happens today as the bulls look for another big open to fresh, all-time highs. I do love writing, fresh, all-time […]
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Date: April 5, 2021
Your FRA and What It Means to Your Finances
When it comes to retirement, knowing your Full Retirement Age, or FRA, is just as vital as knowing your Social Security number and your birthdate – that “magic number” determines when you can start taking your full Social Security benefits, how much you’ll receive, and ultimately, how much money you’ll have in retirement. While Social Security likely won’t supply the bulk of your retirement income, especially for those planning a high net worth retirement, your benefits will play a crucial […]
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Date: April 5, 2021
Schatz Chosen to Serve on Federal Reserve Bank of Connecticut’s Board
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: April 1, 2021 In a surprise move to many, Paul Schatz, Founder and President of Heritage Capital LLC in Woodbridge, CT has been chosen to serve as a Director-At-Large for the Federal Reserve Bank of Connecticut located in New Haven, CT. It was only three short months ago when Schatz was offered a position on President Trump’s Council on Capital Markets, a role Schatz politely declined. “Look, I was so beyond flattered that President Trump and his […]
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Date: April 1, 2021
Epic Greed & Euphoria Lead to a Hedge Fund Blow Up
The new week begins with the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 at all-time highs. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 should follow suit over the next few weeks. I am going to reserve judgement on the NASDAQ 100 for the time being as it remains at a critical short-term juncture. As I mentioned in yesterday’s email, we saw some “curious” behavior during the final hour of trading on Friday as the stock market went from sleepy to surging. It certainly […]
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Date: March 29, 2021
Nice Reversal But…
We saw a semi-impressive turnaround on Thursday led by the small and mid caps stocks. Interestingly, bond yields did not fall hard which is why leadership continued to come from the cyclical areas like financials, energy, materials and industrials, those same sectors I have been touting all year. I do like potential lows to be hammered in on Thursday instead of Friday, but the bulls should get a move on sooner than later. Negative seasonal trends begin to mitigate, but […]
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Date: March 26, 2021
Watching Technology Closely
Some days, I even surprise myself. This morning, I wrote most of my blog post, thought I uploaded it and then went about my day. As I was going through my post-market day wrap up, I noticed it sitting in the draft folder. Nice work Paul! Anyway, following up on my comments from Monday, this week was setting up to be down and the bears are trying hard to grab the upper hand. Without having the major stock market indices […]
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Date: March 24, 2021
They Don’t Make It Easy
Friday was another in what has become a long line of dichotomous days where the 5 major stock market indices were not all in sync. To add confusion on to that was how each of the indices were behaving over the previous two days. While Fridays are always tough days to glean much, especially into the close ahead of a weekend, it looked like Monday could set up for further downside although the Russell 2000 small caps looked the best […]
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Date: March 22, 2021
Heritage Capital Warns: 5 Common Mistakes Made with Social Security
Social Security is a cornerstone element in many retirement plans. It’s also a complex beast, and inattention to details can lead to costly mistakes. Planning how and when to claim your Social Security benefits should start well before age 62, the first year you can receive payments. By starting early and understanding all of your options, you’ll be better positioned to extract the maximum value from your Social Security benefits. While Social Security won’t be your only source of income […]
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Date: March 22, 2021
Crowded Trade Could See Quick & Sharp Reversal
Stocks continue to pull back from their recent all-time highs earlier this week. That is, except for the NASDAQ 100 which has been mired in a correction since mid-February as soaring bond yields have come at the expense of tech. I will say this; unless the NASDAQ 100 quickly closes above this week’s high point, it should be headed for new 2021 lows. The other major indices are behaving well and should see fresh all-time highs next month. It seems […]
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Date: March 19, 2021
