Crowded Trade Could See Quick & Sharp Reversal
Stocks continue to pull back from their recent all-time highs earlier this week. That is, except for the NASDAQ 100 which has been mired in a correction since mid-February as soaring bond yields have come at the expense of tech. I will say this; unless the NASDAQ 100 quickly closes above this week’s high point, it should be headed for new 2021 lows. The other major indices are behaving well and should see fresh all-time highs next month. It seems […]
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Date: March 19, 2021
The Single Most Important Fed Day Ever – Phooey
The stock market model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a bigger move. However, with the S&P 500 at new highs this week, the usual ammunition for a big rally is gone. With pre-market indicating a lower open, the model is to buy anything lower than -0.50% and reduce or eliminate at 2pm. Here we go again. All the hyperbole about the single most important Fed meeting ever has started yet again. The deal is […]
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Date: March 17, 2021
Dow Crashes 3000 Points – 3rd Worst Percent Day on Record
First, I want to quickly thank so many of you who emailed suggestions and actionable info to help me secure a vaccine. A week ago, after having to put down one of our family pets, my phone rang at 3:55pm with an offer to vaccinate me if I could be at CVS in New Haven in 20 minutes. Suffice it to say, a law or two may have been breached. As I walked in, I received another call with a […]
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Date: March 16, 2021
The Unloved Become Winners
Last year, the theme was mega cap technology at the expense of everything else. Since my “pound the table buy bottom” October 30th, we have had a complete reversal of fortunes. Small caps have led the indices. Cyclicals like banks, energy, industrials, transports and materials finally sprung to life. Bonds became as hated as they were loved. It’s really quite fascinating how the markets value things differently in different climates. Investors who get married to a particular theme or stock […]
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Date: March 15, 2021
Yields Popping Again – More Classic Dichotomy
Stocks look to open lower to end the week as the 10-Year Note yield is surging again. That will put pressure on growth and technology to the benefit of my favorite cyclical groups like banks, energy, industrials and materials. Since the NASDAQ 100 peaked on February 16, there has only been one single back to back days of gains. More than anything else, that tells you how every rally is being aggressively sold. However, look at small and mid cap […]
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Date: March 12, 2021
Fox Business TODAY, The 10-Year Boogeyman & Dow 33,000
I am excited to join my friend, Charles Payne, on Fox Business’ Making Money today at 2:45pm today (Thursday) discussing SPACs and the epic greed and euphoria in the financial markets. The other day, I joined my friend, Tim Lammers, on Fox61’s Morning News to discuss my recently published e-book. Tim is the consummate pro and I really enjoyed sharing tips and strategies that anyone can follow as they plan for retirement. In fact, I am going to do a […]
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Date: March 11, 2021
Markets Full of Emotion and Tepper Speaks Out
So much going on today after such an emotional reversal on Friday. Let’s start with last week. After a rout on Thursday and an ugly morning on Friday, the bulls came roaring back across the board to close stocks near their highs for the day. Interesting to note that the major indices rallied 3-5% from their intra-day lows to the close. That is certainly emotional. One day reversal patterns look awesome on a chart, but they do not have the […]
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Date: March 8, 2021
Navigating Taxes IN Retirement
The road to lower tax paid runs through your entire lifetime, both pre- and post-retirement. The decisions you make before retirement critically impact your tax situation after retirement. But don’t dismiss the additional steps you can take within retirement to keep your taxes as low as possible. (This is especially important for a high net worth retirement, because the more money you have, the higher the taxes you’ll face.) How is Social Security Taxed? Social Security benefits are subject […]
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Date: March 8, 2021
Classical Dichotomy
In 1994 which seems like a lifetime ago, I played Rotisserie Baseball. It was the predecessor to all these super popular fantasy sports. 12 of us met right before the season began and we drafted our own teams from MLB rosters. Changes to rosters were permitted weekly although for an extra fee, you could do this daily and use what was called a fax machine to send in activity. On Monday’s the statistics service would snail mail leagues standings and […]
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Date: March 4, 2021
Strange End to Feb – Buying Weakness Remains the Play
What a very strange close to February. With the stock market up on the month and Friday a decent day, there were massive computer generated sell programs in the final 15 minutes that knocked the S&P 500 down more than 1.5% before recovering a bit into the close. Interestingly, there was not a TICK spike, meaning that the programs were not widespread. They were limited to a handful of major stocks in the index. We do not know why or […]
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Date: March 1, 2021
“EVERYONE” Talking Bond Yields Now
Thursday was an ugly day. It was one of those “throw everything out with the garbage” kind of day. All indices and all sectors were red. The surge in 10-year yields was blamed. As you know, my forecast for 10-year yields in the first half of 2021 was in the range of 1.3-1.4%. Bond yields hit 1.6% intra-day yesterday as you can see below. The next “logical” levels are 1.65% and 2%. I do not believe we see 2% this […]
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Date: February 26, 2021
That’s It? Decline Over?
Tuesday was certainly one of those wildly volatile days, the kind we saw often last March and a few times in June and September. What was interesting about Tuesday was that significant intra-day losses were reversed so close to an all-time high. That doesn’t happen all that often and from memory, it was behavior seen often as the Dotcom Bubble was fully inflating and about to peak. The question now is, was that it? Is the pullback over? To exaggerate […]
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Date: February 24, 2021
A Change in Tune? Decline Unfolding?
It would be impossible for any of my readers to not know my theme of epic greed and euphoria in the financial markets since late last year. Yet, stocks keep forging ahead, almost unabated except for a very brief 4% pullback a few weeks ago. Make no mistake about it, a sentiment landscape like this is not going to end well. To be crystal clear, excessive risk taking is going to be severely punished. Please do not email me with […]
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Date: February 22, 2021
How to Get Accurate and Realistic Retirement Projections
Decisions about retirement have both objective and subjective components. Generally, the objective components deal with your money – how much you’ll have and how much you’ll need. To get accurate and realistic retirement projections, you’ll also need to consider other factors, such as your age, health, debt and estate plans. On the subjective side is deciding when to retire, where to live after retirement, and what to do with yourself in retirement. Do you have family that you want to […]
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Date: February 22, 2021
Another Opp For The Bulls
Stocks have pulled back so mildly over the past few days with the Russell 2000, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 leading the way. Yet, there is a short-term buying opportunity in the stock market as today is an expiration day. Those indices that fell that hardest are supposed to bounce the most and likely to new highs. The key will be if one or more do not. That would be an opportunity to further prune and move away from the […]
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Date: February 19, 2021
Now It’s About Rates
The yield on long-dated treasuries is set to jump this morning and the pundits are all over this. You can see in the chart below that the 10-Year Treasury Note has gone from almost 2% a year ago to 0.40% at the height of the Corona Crash in March to almost 1.30% today. That is hardly a surge in long-term interest rates and a gross exaggeration that equity investors are going to eschew stocks for bonds. But yet, we have […]
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Date: February 16, 2021
SPACs the New Dotcom
It’s rare when my blog topics become the same day after day after day. I force myself to think if I am being lazy or there really is nothing new to write about. Perhaps some days, it is a combination of both. The major stock market indices continue to grind higher. Nothing new. My four key sectors, banks, semis, discretionary and transports are not all in sync at new highs, but they are all rallying. High yield bonds are at […]
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Date: February 10, 2021
It’s Confirmed. I Was Wrong
As you know, my thesis has been for an absolute minimum 4-8% pullback in Q1 to at least move the sentiment needle from greed and euphoric to neutral. Well, Mr. Market gave us the bare minimum 4% decline, but not only did it not repair anything, it has actually made the landscape even worse. Rather than weak handed investors selling, it seems like anyone not involved in the Gamestop Saga bought the decline. That was a bit of a surprise. […]
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Date: February 8, 2021
A High Net-Worth Financial Planning Tip: 6 Times to Revisit Your Budget
Few things are more personal than your budget. Among other things, a budget is an attempt to impose order upon an unpredictable future. Your budget should reflect your priorities and your financial circumstances, both of which can shift over time. Affluent, high net worth professionals have many opportunities for setting, achieving and revising goals that are sensitive to dynamic changes – whether it’s responding to unanticipated events or fulfilling a long-held dream. Given the central role your budget plays in […]
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Date: February 8, 2021
Am I Wrong?
Thankfully, the markets are calming down from the Gamestop Saga, but it is hard to believe that the whole thing is over. It may be over for the current stocks, but there should be others. And my experience says that the outcome will not be the same and the little guy will be hurt. I just do not believe that the hedge funds and big money will be fooled again. And neither will the platforms like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers. […]
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Date: February 4, 2021
