Just a very quick post as I am in catch up mode from being out on Mon and Tues with the Jewish holiday as well as working on month and quarter end reconciliation and reporting for the next week. The story of Tuesday was the collapse in gold and silver and the stocks. It was an ugly rout, but not unexpected given the somewhat bearish chart pattern below. I wanted to point out that this 28% decline may be close […]
Read More
Today is the last day of the month as well as the last day of the quarter. The S&P 500 closed down -0.12% in August and is on track to close down in September unless the bulls can mount a major offensive, which I am not ruling out, and close above 2071. That means a down August and September for the S&P in a presidential election year, something not seen since 1956. You can put that in the category of […]
Read More
The happiest moment of my Monday evening was when Lester Holt said, “that concludes the first of three presidential debates”. Talk about painful. I was SO thankful that I had picture in picture so I could also watch an incredibly entertaining football game between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. High scoring and lots of action. I thought Trump started off so well and I actually naively thought that it was going to be a real debate about policy. […]
Read More
Our post-FOMC sell signal from Thursday’s close remains in place. That short-term trade will end this week. Stocks begin the week on the defensive as Europe and Asia are showing red. The media will likely blame it on pre-debate jitters, but that’s just nonsense. Pullback mode remains in place as it has been for the past few weeks. As I keep mentioning, it should not be a big deal. The Dow and S&P 500 continue to be the weak sister […]
Read More
After Thursday’s strength, one of our post-FOMC trading systems gave a sell signal and that calls for weakness over the next 3-5 days. This has a high degree of accuracy, greater than 75%. If stocks rally further on Friday, it will trigger another trend calling for lower prices with a hit rate above 85%. If correct, this should just be a quick and relatively mild bout of weakness that can be bought for another move to new highs on the […]
Read More
Yesterday, I said that all of our Fed related trends were muted to less than 60% accuracy. That was wrong. One of our best Fed systems said there was a 78% likelihood that stocks rallied. I didn’t realize this until well after 2pm when it was too late to email and take advantage. What a powerful response to the Fed not raising rates and issuing a more hawkish statement, exactly what I and most others predicted. I did find it […]
Read More
As the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting heads into day two, our own trends and systems for the trading day are surprisingly mute. Today typically sees stocks trade in a +.50% to -.50% band until 2 pm before the market gets a shot of volatility. Usually, we see a strong upside bias into the close, but the odds of that are under 60% from the usual 75%+. In other words, the edge just isn’t there today. Tomorrow, Friday and early […]
Read More
The major indices begin the week without being on the same page as the multi-week pullback theme remains in place. This is very typical of a market that is digesting gains. Below is the S&P 500 where you can see the big red and green bars on the right side. Those were huge spikes in volatility in both directions. Over the past week, however, the bars have become shorter and shorter, meaning less movement from high to low each day. […]
Read More
While stocks didn’t much on the surface on Wednesday, it was definitely disappointing for the bulls that there hasn’t been any follow through from Monday’s big reversal. The bulls should make another attempt on Thursday. The pullback theme remains intact, but we are starting to see some more encouraging readings in the sentiment area, specifically on the ETF volume side. The most prominent ETFs, SPY and QQQ have seen volume spike lately which means that investors are favoring the liquidity […]
Read More
What a show of strength by the bulls on Monday. After what looked like a continuation of Friday’s bloodbath, the bears folded like a cheap suit shortly after the open. Credit is being giving to Fed head, Lael Brainard, who gave a very dovish (against raising rates) speech, but the truth is that stocks were already moving up long before she took the podium after lunch. Her comments just added fuel to the fire. By the way, this is the […]
Read More
Last week, my theme focused on a pullback in the stock market. More importantly, my strong opinion was that it wasn’t a bout of weakness where people should sell in to, but rather to use that opportunity to buy the dip or re-position a portfolio to where it should be over where it was. Friday was an ugly day across the board. Overwhelmingly red. 96% of the volume on the NYSE was in stocks that were down. Besides stocks, bonds […]
Read More
The Dow and S&P 500 are still lagging the other major stock market indices in pullback mode, but contrary to what you may think, this remains a very healthy environment for stocks. In the strongest markets, the more “risk on” indices are the ones charging ahead. That’s the case now with the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100. The NYSE Advance/Decline Line which measures broad participation recently scored yet another all-time high and high yield bonds are hanging in […]
Read More
Over the past few trading days, stocks gathered a little steam, but I still think the markets are in the midst of yet another pause or tiny pullback. It is amazing, however, that we have not seen a 1% in either direction since the post-BREXIT rally in early July. I have been saying nonstop that we saw historic strength coming out of the Y2K like BREXIT and that strength would not dissipate so quickly. Frankly, I thought we would have […]
Read More
Stocks have gone essentially nowhere for a month. Bulls, like myself, view this as a healthy period of digestion or consolidation before the next leg of the rally begins. Bears argue that stocks have peaked and they are headed much lower. As I have mentioned for months and months, I don’t think the bull is over or close to that point. There have been too many strong indications of more upside that typically do not occur as a bear market […]
Read More
Listening to the media, you would think that absolutely nothing has gone on in the stock market this month. While it’s true that the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have gone nowhere, the other two major indices, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have seen some gains. Nothing to write home about, but the bulls should take it! Additionally, and very quietly, high yield (junk) bonds, perhaps my favorite canary in the coal mine broke out again on Monday, further […]
Read More
Similar to August 2nd when coiled up stocks broke to the downside and wiped out more than two weeks of gains, the S&P 500 did essentially the same thing on Wednesday. While it was only a .50% decline, the media turned it into a big deal; it’s not. Could stocks weaken more? Yes. Should we be concerned? No. I won’t be surprised if this pullback is the largest since the BREXIT bottom, but keep in mind that we haven’t even […]
Read More
Heading into the new week, we have more of the same. Stocks are trading in an historically tight range. The longer this continues, the greater the move when the range ends. As I always mention, many times you will see the market move out of one side of the range and fake out the masses and then immediately head to the other side of the range like stocks did on August 2. Very interestingly, smart money is gearing up for […]
Read More
It’s been a little longer in between updates as I was traveling in Florida for a board meeting as well as seeing some clients and visiting relatives. My 98 year old grandmother says “hello”. I feel like I need a break from eating after so many fantastic meals not to mention great conversation all around. Also, there really hasn’t been much to say. I like when the markets are calm and quiet when I am on the road. Makes life […]
Read More
On Twitter and www.investfortomorrowblog.com I have been fairly aggressive in calling out the so called “masters of the universe” in their widespread and uniform calls for a stock market collapse… for months. To me, it’s like a parade of clowns who have continued to lose credibility. Being early is the same as being wrong. And as I often like to say, it’s okay to be wrong, but it’s not okay to stay wrong. That’s coming from someone who has made […]
Read More
Roughly one month ago, after an historic lift off post BREXIT, stocks had become overbought which is a technical term for a little too far too fast. Most pundits in the media were calling for a pullback before they would buy. As I have discussed for longer than I have been writing this blog, the masses seldom get what they want or predict. When stocks bottom, the first rally is usually very powerful as it catches the majority off guard. […]
Read More