A 30-50% Collapse?
Greetings from the left coast where I am in the process of traveling home from a mystical and magical week at Pebble Beach with friends. Having not been there for 31 years, I was at a loss for words to describe how amazing it felt to be back at the greatest golf resort on earth, not to mention playing golf with and socializing with a good number of PGA and LPGA pros. If only my golf game cooperated! Looking back […]
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Date: November 22, 2021
Inflation Building to a Peak – Stocks Euphoric
Hopefully, you have seen my thesis that inflation is in the process of peaking. Notice, I didn’t say it peaked. The process has begun. That’s high conviction and what I going with until proven otherwise. If I am correct we will see this unfold in various sectors and asset classes, like commodities, industrials, materials, energy and bonds. For the past week I have not had strong conviction that the mild, barely discernible pullback was over and I still don’t. Sentiment […]
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Date: November 17, 2021
Inflation Peaking – Sentiment Greedy, Giddy & Euphoric
The bulls enjoyed a nice bounce back on Friday from the minuscule pullback last week. While it’s not my highest conviction play it certainly looks like there should a bit more downside to come, and preferably before the holiday. As I mentioned last week, sentiment is getting to the point where is about as euphoric, greedy and giddy as it ever gets, rivaling several spots in the post-2008 bull market as well as the Dotcom era. But before you assume […]
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Date: November 15, 2021
Inflation Peaking
Markets have been super quiet over the past few days. We have seen the pause and mild pullback I wrote about, but there should be more to it. Sentiment is back in the greedy, euphoric stage, but let’s remember that frothiness usually needs some structural damage before we see real weakness. Economic and earnings data continue to support my theme that the economy is re-accelerating strongly. Inflation data is the hottest in 31 years which also is right in line […]
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Date: November 12, 2021
Pullback Coming But Bears Won’t Be Happy
Let’s talk pre-Thanksgiving turkey. From October 12 through November 8, the S&P 500 has basically gone straight up with one noticeable down day on October 27. That’s only one real down day in 18. That would be called a powerful and momentum driven market. Momentum dies hard. Strength begets strength. Eventually, the bulls just get exhausted and stocks pull back because there’s no buying power available. That’s the likely scenario here. Stocks will just mildly pull back with little notice. […]
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Date: November 10, 2021
Goldilocks Is in the House – No Concerns Anywhere
Listening to the media on Friday, you would think that the powerful employment report caused a major surge in stock prices. It was literally a parade of bulls with many being asked if things could ever get better. We now have the “perfect Goldilocks environment for stocks”. Oh boy. Uh oh. 20 months ago with the Dow Industrials at 18,000 almost no one wanted to invest. As stocks rallied and rallied and rallied, more and more investors hopped on board […]
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Date: November 8, 2021
The Headline Jane Believed and How It Affected Her Financial Future
In my experience as a financial advisor for more than 30 years, I’ve learned that many investors, even confident, successful, high net worth investors, learn by example, like we do in the rest of our lives. Unfortunately, many times, this example is a mistake they make themselves. With this in mind, I’d like to tell you about “Jane,” a well-educated woman I met before the pandemic who agreed to let me share her story. Some mistakes can be quite costly, […]
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Date: November 8, 2021
Even I was Surprised
It’s jobs Friday and the report did not disappoint. As you already know from this Yahoo segment on October 28, my high conviction thesis has been that U.S. economic growth re-accelerates strongly in Q4 and Q1. I hadn’t seen anyone else with this call in October. Additionally, earnings also surprise to the upside for Q4. In turn, this would also keep the bull market running powerfully into 2022 with the rising tide lifting most boats. I know I have been […]
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Date: November 5, 2021
No Surprises
There have no surprises this week, at least not for my readers. The Fed announced its overdue plan to reduce asset purchases. Check. The Russell 2000 finally scored a new all-time high. Check. The Dow Industrials hit my upside target of 36,000. Check. The other major stock market indices continued to make new highs. Check. The rising tide has lifted most ships. Check. The rally since late September has been powerful and relentless. Starting on September 20 and ever since, […]
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Date: November 4, 2021
Stocks Ain’t Done – Lots of Clowns Pretending to Know – Fed to FINALLY Taper
Let me start off by sharing a fun, engaging and informative interview I did with the good folks at Investors Hub. The Federal Reserve is currently meeting and we are finally going to hear about the long-awaited, surprise to no one, way overdue plan to taper asset purchases. This should have started over a year ago when inflation was in its infancy. Of course, my readers began hearing about inflation in the summer of 2020 as the train was leaving […]
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Date: November 2, 2021
Afternoon Swoon – Bears Lining Up
Greetings again from 32,000 feet! After a super turbulent flight down, I landed and my license was gone. Yes, somehow between Hartford and Fort Lauderdale it disappeared. And even though I had a picture copy, they would not let me rent a car. 40 minute long story short where I started making all these alternative plans and had my wife on the phone calling Hartford TSA while I called JetBlue, I found my license in my sneaker, the one on […]
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Date: October 28, 2021
Getting a Second Opinion – 6 Reasons You Owe It to Yourself
No one blinks when you ask for a second medical opinion. After all, it’s your health and well-being. You can’t be too careful. So why don’t more people seek second opinions on their finances? It’s their financial health and well-being after all. There are many motives for seeking a second financial opinion, and they don’t necessarily imply that you are currently getting bad advice, just like you may not be receiving bad medical advice either. However, if you are, changing […]
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Date: October 26, 2021
New Highs Continue as Forecast – Always a Concern
Greetings from 34,000 feet! 17 years ago, I swore I would never take a red eye flight from CA and I haven’t since. Taking a 6am is equally unappealing. Arriving at the airport at 5am, I found a literal sea of people and chaos. No matter which line you chose they were all backed up the length of the terminal and out the door. 50 minutes to get through security using TSA Pre-Check is unacceptable and insane. While in line, […]
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Date: October 25, 2021
New Highs, New Highs, New Highs BUT Junk Not Along for the Ride
The Dow Industrials sit at all-time highs. The S&P 500 has rallied for 7 straight days and is at all-time highs. The S&P 400 just hit all-time highs. It has been a fun run when most did not expect it. Wait until the Russell 2000 small caps get their tail in gear to the upside. That’s coming. If I had to poke holes in my bullish thesis I would talk about the chart below which is a popular high yield […]
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Date: October 22, 2021
Bulls Charging, BUT…
It has been a nice and fun run for the bulls since the middle of last week. The major stock market indices have all rallied 3-4%. It’s good that they are in sync. However, (Geez Paul, can’t you just leave it at that?) the daily number of stocks going up versus going down has been a bit of a stinker for the past four days. I would have liked to see very broad participation, especially in a rally so young. […]
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Date: October 20, 2021
***Q3 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. I would rather have been wrong on my forecast and perfectly right on our models. How’s that for a sentence to begin my Q3 report? Over the past few months, I have concluded every single client meeting with my thoughts that gains in […]
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Date: October 19, 2021
When The Ducks Quack, Feed Them
My oh my. What a difference a few days makes. We went from hearing all about 1970s style inflation, supply chain woes and challenged Q3 earnings to partying like it’s 1999, all in one week. Well, good luck to those schizophrenic investors. As my friend and Twitter queen, Helene Meisler likes to say, “nothing like price to change sentiment”. As you know, I have been firmly positive, whether or not the major stock market indices would see one more decline […]
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Date: October 18, 2021
Bulls Roar Back, Who Knew? New Highs On Track for Q4
As sentiment in the media and pundit land was negative earlier this week, stocks roared back to life on Thursday. Of course, the pundits fell over themselves telling everyone how they bought the bottom on Wednesday and became super bulls. Numbers do not lie. That’s why managing money is different from writing a newsletter, being a pundit or yelling BUY BUY BUY to unsuspecting lemmings. Thursday was a good day for the markets, at least price-wise. The major stock market […]
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Date: October 15, 2021
All-Time Highs Still The Call – One More Decline or Not
With back to back deep dish pizza dinners at Lou Malnati’s and Giordano’s, I am back from Chicago after attending what was the best NAAIM Outlook conference I can ever recall. Simply amazing speakers and highly beneficial networking opps. A number of folks who usually come really missed out on this one. First, I want to correct a statement I made yesterday in the energy video. I said something to the effect that regardless of whether the market sees one […]
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Date: October 13, 2021
Bulls Need to Step Up – Vital Canary Under Pressure
Stocks jumped up at the opening on Friday, presumably because of yet another disappointing employment report. The early chatter was that the big miss would give the Fed cover not to announce the plan to taper asset purchases next month. However, the bond market opened lower and stayed lower for the second straight day. You can see that in the chart below. That market certainly isn’t behaving like the growth is slowing and/or the Fed is going to cut back. […]
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Date: October 11, 2021
