Fed Should Stop Right Now
As I mentioned the other day, a pause to refresh or a mild pullback would be good for the stock market after running hot and heavy this year so far. On Wednesday we saw weaker economic data in retail sales and before that, Empire Manufacturing. Unlike previous soft data the stock market fell with bad news being bad news. At the same time, the Fed heads were out in full force reiterating their stance for higher interest rates for longer. […]
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Date: January 19, 2023
Bulls Looking Good
The market returns from the three-day weekend having seen a strong rally since January 5th and a few important metrics hit. All of the major stock market indices have been participating in the advance with mid and small caps being the most impressive. They have already exceeded their highs from December 13th which was the last emotional reversal lower. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have yet to come close. How they behave around those price levels will be […]
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Date: January 17, 2023
Biggest Economic Report of All-Time
This morning, the government released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December. Almost every piece came exactly as expected. The index fell 0.1% in December. 6.5% year over year. Stripping out food and energy as they do because, let’s face it, who really needs to eat, drive or heat the home, core CPI rose 0.3%. 5.7% year over year. It’s the report that the media made out to be the single most important report ever. They said it could have […]
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Date: January 12, 2023
Markets OK – Jobs & Inflation
Stocks came into 2023 on slippery footing but managed to eke out a gain after the first five days. Yale Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac had a quaint piece about as goes the first five days of the year, so goes January. And as goes January so goes the year. It all nice and tidy except that it does not stand up to scrutiny this century. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard the pundits tell everyone, “Don’t […]
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Date: January 10, 2023
Why You Should Regularly Update Your Retirement Projections
Retirement planning is an important process that should become a lifelong habit, especially if you are a high-net-worth individual. Given today’s challenging economic and investment environment, it’s even more important to regularly revisit and refine your long-term projections and strategies. Otherwise, you’re driving blindly into the future. Keeping them up-to-date can help ensure that you are prepared for whatever uncertainties may arise in your post-retirement life. This is good because, unfortunately, car accidents, divorces, and lawsuits lack the courtesy to […]
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Date: January 9, 2023
2023 Fearless Forecast – Year of the Bull
Intro to the Fearless Forecast Each and every year, I spend some time in Q4 collecting my thoughts about how I see the next 12 months unfolding in the financial markets, economy, etc. While I do really enjoy looking into my super secret crystal ball as I do throughout the year, I also know that it’s a fairly futile exercise to forecast 12 months out. First, we do not manage client portfolios according to my opinion in any time frame. […]
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Date: January 7, 2023
Santa Did Call – 2023 Should Be Good For All
For the past few weeks I heard pundit after pundit scream about how the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) will fail this year or is failing this year or even crashing. The fact of the matter is that the SCR ended at Wednesday’s close with a gain of 0.81%. That is inarguable fact. Santa Claus came to Broad and Wall so bears will not call, or at least that’s how the botched adage goes. In other words we see no warning […]
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Date: January 5, 2023
Strong & Telling Market Action On The Way – Santa Delivering
2023 is finally here and most in the business will not miss 2022. Good riddance and adios to the most challenging year for stocks and bonds combined since at least the Great Depression. As we turn the page I wish you a 2023 full of good health, happiness, peace and prosperity! I thank you for reading, for questioning and for commenting. I am truly grateful and appreciative. Although I am not one for big resolutions, I will say this; my […]
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Date: January 3, 2023
Top 6 Financial Tips Before Year-End
The final week of 2022 is upon us and I wanted to share a video I created as well as a recent segment I did with my friend, Tim Lammers, on Fox61 in CT. It’s not too late to do some last minute financial planning and save money before the year ends. As always please don’t hesitate to call or email with any questions or comments. Top 6 Financial Tips Before Year-End Plans and reflections for end-of-year personal finances Last […]
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Date: December 28, 2022
How Can a High Net-Worth Individual Fortify Investments?
These can be challenging times for investors. As I’ve mentioned before, the classic 60/40 investment portfolio is not the reliable go-to it was for decades. The economy and stock market both tend to be cyclical, so they should improve over time. However, that probably won’t happen overnight. This is why having a well-diversified investment portfolio is always a good idea. What follows are some additional tips to consider. This article considers these topics: Resist the urge to sell when the […]
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Date: December 27, 2022
The Santa Claus Rally Begins
Regardless of what the pundits and media say, the true Santa Claus Rally (SCR) as observed and researched by Yale Hirsch of Stock Traders Almanac fame began at the close on December 22nd and lasts through the close on January 4th. In other words the trend is the last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year. That’s not debatable. Whether Santa arrives or not is up for debate. Since 2000 Santa rewarded investors 18 […]
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Date: December 23, 2022
How Will Social Security Change in 2023?
The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced that there will be several changes to benefits in 2023. According to them, these changes are necessary for ensuring the program’s long-term stability. In this blog post, I’ll take a closer look at what the changes may entail—and how they could affect (even affluent) investors. I may share more insights in the coming weeks, as well. Please explore these issues with us: Social Security’s 2023 COLA summarized Taking benefits early vs. waiting for […]
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Date: December 22, 2022
Opportunity to Bottom Today
I have been targeting this week for the December bottom and rally into January which occurs roughly 80% of the time. While Monday failed to deliver, Tuesday looked more constructive and Wednesday looks like it may confirm the low. We will see after the close. I want to see a close above Tuesday’s high as well as price closing in the upper half of Wednesday’s range. And as I always do, if the stock market closes below Tuesday’s low, I […]
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Date: December 21, 2022
Void of Data Begins
The financial markets survived the FOMC meeting, inflation report and Friday’s enormous expiration of options and futures. And by survive, I mean that the markets did not implode, but they did not come away unscathed. Last week, I offered that the stock market should put in at least a short-term low by the end of this coming week. That’s still the plan. The first opportunity comes right away on Monday with a close above Friday’s high. While few setups look […]
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Date: December 19, 2022
Fresh Selling Wave Hits Post CPI
It certainly has been a wild few days and it’s not over. Between the Fed meeting, CPI report and today’s gargantuan expiration of futures and options, the markets have had an overwhelming amount of information to absorb. Volatility has been high. For December, it has been on the extreme side. While I am sure it is different as most are, this has the feel of the early June selling wave with multiple days down and gap down weak openings. Look […]
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Date: December 16, 2022
Festive Lights & Financial Planners in Connecticut
The holidays are supposed to be a time for cheer and relaxation, but for many affluent investors, they can also be a time of stress. Between trying to find the perfect gifts and spending time with family, it can be hard to focus on your financial life in general, much less your investments. That’s where wealth management comes in: The right professional can help you relax more—by taking care of your investments for you. While you recharge, mentally and physically, […]
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Date: December 13, 2022
Disappointment on Friday
A few interesting tidbits from Friday’s action. The bond market as measured by TLT sold off a whopping 2.6%. Instances like that were seen 7 times so far this year, 4 times in 2020, 4 times in 2011 and 7 times in 2009 plus a few other random happenings along the way. In 2022 none of them marked the bottom but other years saw more favorable results going forward. While I did not buy any bonds on Friday because it […]
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Date: December 12, 2022
Semis & Banks Offer Opposing Views – Home Heating Oil Update
It has been a crummy little stretch for stocks and other risk assets, having given back the entire Jay Powell pivot chat from last week.That was when Fed Chair Powell was interviewed by David Wessel and really just slightly came off his uber hawkish view and said that a 1/2% hike was coming next week. As I have been writing about for months the dollar and the 10-Year have come way off their highs which is good for stocks and […]
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Date: December 7, 2022
White Hot Jobs Market & Yields Go Down
On Friday the government released the employment report for November which showed 263,000 new jobs being created. That was well above the 200,000 estimated. Unemployment remained steady at 3.7%. We also saw wages increase at 5.1% on an annualized basis. While this is great news for Americans and the economy, it is not what Jay Powell and the Fed wanted to see. Recall that the Fed is on an inflation fighting crusade. Let’s remember that Fed action takes 6-9 month […]
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Date: December 5, 2022
More Props For The Bulls
Wednesday was a huge day for the bulls. It started out mildly until Fed Chair Powell spoke with David Wessel from the Brookings Institute. Then the fuse got lit and risk on assets soared. Almost 90% of the day’s volume was in stocks that went up. The Dow Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 all went to new highs for Q4. Only the Russell 2000 lags. Below you can see the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 […]
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Date: December 2, 2022
