Markets on Defensive – Oil Bear Market Rages On
Stocks return from the weekend the same way they began the weekend, on the defensive. After closing above the highest levels seen in February and sucking in investors, the stock market promptly reversed and is now pulling back again. The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 are mild so far, but the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 are deeper and more concerning. The technology sector just trades very heavy as interest rates continue to soar on the long […]
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Date: April 11, 2022
Brainard Should Resign
Yesterday, I wrote about the little pullback in stocks. That was before Fed head Lael Brainard threw a big bucket of cold water on the markets. Brainard is usually in the dovish camp and was often mentioned as a replacement for Jay Powell if the liberals had their way with President Biden. Recall, she was widely considered as the front runner for Secretary of the Treasury if Hillary Clinton won in 2016. She’s certainly no hawk when it comes to […]
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Date: April 7, 2022
A Little Pullback for Stocks
It wasn’t the ending UCONN Nation was hoping for in Minneapolis, but the best team all year with the best player all year won the national championship. UCONN was a M.A.S.H. unit all season and that carried right into the final buzzer. With another array of high school All-Americans coming to Storrs in a few short months, I have no doubt the team will be in Dallas this time next year. FYI, I am scheduled to join Maria Bartiromo on […]
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Date: April 5, 2022
Retirement Planning: Will Social Security Really Go Broke?
The way people talk when discussing retirement planning, it sounds like a foregone conclusion. However, despite what you hear, Social Security probably isn’t going anywhere. Click here to view my recent video about the viability of Social Security. As a matter of fact, the Social Security Trust Fund is already at zero (even though some say it won’t reach that point for a few years): Our government has already borrowed trillions from it. Believe it or not, you can still […]
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Date: April 4, 2022
Late Day Plunge to End The Month & Quarter
Greetings from the Ice Box of America, Minnesota, where it is surprisingly sunny and nice. I can’t decide if ice fishing, curling or the Mall of America is our on the docket for the weekend. With the month and quarter-end on Thursday we certainly saw some portfolio games in the last hour although they were not of the usual bullish variety. Check out the right side of the chart below. You can see the late day plunge that was essentially […]
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Date: April 1, 2022
Stocks Rally Through Feb Highs – Bullish Sentiment Rising
On the surface we have seen one powerful move off the March bottom in the stock market. It’s been almost relentless with only one real down day out of 10. Additionally, we saw many of the major indices exceed their February highs, an area that has garnered much attention as lines in the sand for the bears to know they’re wrong. You can see that below in the S&P 500 with the blue, horizontal line. While I didn’t think stocks […]
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Date: March 30, 2022
2022 Still Looking Like 2018 & 1994 – Details Below
As you know I have been viewing 2022 in the stock market as a challenging year, a frustrating year for both bull and bear alike. 2022 is a year that requires patience and quality, at least that was my theme as the year began and remains that way. By “challenging”, I do not mean like 2008, 2002 or 2001 which were years where few strategies worked and the indices were hit hard. No. I mean it is not going to […]
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Date: March 28, 2022
Is This April 2008 Again? Answering Your Questions
Stocks continue to act very well off of the Fed week bottom. Momentum has been powerful and they have done nothing wrong. Heck, the S&P 500 is only about 6% from new highs. How many people noticed that? The headlines remain awful. Russia/Ukraine, inflation, supply chain. It’s ugly. I think famed investor Carl Icahn actually said he sees “recession or worse” coming up. I am not sure what that means exactly, but it sounds pretty dire. And yet stocks have […]
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Date: March 25, 2022
2 Years Ago Today – Calling A Bottom
Let’s start off by recognizing that two years ago today was the COVID Crash bottom. I remember writing a post on this blog over the weekend how the downside momentum was waning although price continued lower, a key indication of an impending turn. Then there was the insanity from the paid actor pundits on those trading TV shows. There were guys literally falling over themselves to give the lowest target for the S&P 500. 1500 was shared by many. Some […]
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Date: March 23, 2022
Stocks Set to Soar Over Next 12
Let me start off by sharing these high energy and fun segments from my visits to Fox Business and Yahoo. Market bottom coming. No recession. Consumer psyche already damaged as inflation peaks. Stocks have certainly rocketed off the lows from last Monday, precisely in the window of opportunity I wrote about for almost two months. I know I was crystal clear when I said that the February 24th bottom looked like the secondary and more important bottom from the January […]
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Date: March 21, 2022
Reduce Your Retirement Tax Bill With a Backdoor Roth Conversion
Capital gains and other taxes spike for higher income brackets, so reducing tax liability is crucial in high net worth investing strategies. Roth IRAs present a rare opportunity to accumulate gains and withdraw them tax-free in retirement. However, direct contributions are not allowed for higher-income individuals. If your individual Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) is $144,000 in 2022 or your joint MAGI is $214,000 in 2022, you cannot contribute to a Roth IRA. However, there is another long-term investing strategy […]
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Date: March 21, 2022
Stocks Rally Three Straight
As you know I have been targeting this week all quarter for the point where stocks begin to go up out of the bottom and not into the low or sideways. The last three days have seen 1%+ rallies for stocks. Not bad, but I am still not totally convinced it is off to the races again. While I do still believe Q2 is going to be a win for the bulls, there remain a few weeks to get to […]
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Date: March 18, 2022
***SPECIAL FED UPDATE – Rates Going Up, Powell Still Chasing***
Before I get into my comments about the Fed meeting, let’s start with what the model says for today’s action which seems to be of interest to many people. On every Fed day, the model says plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm. With pre-market action we are looking at well north of that. Post 2pm, we are supposed to rally, however, given the big rally on Tuesday and what looks to be a strong opening and possible morning, the odds […]
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Date: March 16, 2022
Junk Bonds Need Help
It’s finally here, at least the week is here. It’s Fed week which should redirect some of the market chatter from Russia/Ukraine. While the media remains acutely focused on geopolitical events and Wall Street is falling over itself cutting their year-end S&P 500 targets, Jay Powell and his minions are set to begin a new interest rate hike cycle on Wednesday. That’s much more important to our markets and economy. I always literally laugh out loud when I see Wall […]
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Date: March 14, 2022
Stocks Trading Heavy – High Yield at New Lows
On the surface stocks remain all over the map, but stepping away from the trees for a minute, they really haven’t gone anywhere up or down. The February high stands. The February low stands. The market does, however, feel on the heavy side which is what we see early rallies are sold and afternoons are weak. Very quietly, small caps have been leading giving solace to the bulls. That’s not enough for me without some upside progress. High yield bonds […]
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Date: March 11, 2022
Seeds of an Oil Peak
In Monday’s long video I spoke about energy and the likelihood of the commodity suddenly peaking. It could be now or next week or next month, but the price action and sentiment indicated end of move behavior rather than anything else. On Tuesday, Congress and President Biden banned Russian oil imports. Then financial channel CNBC ran a special called Oil Shock. While I am not saying the high is here, this is how in tune the country is about the […]
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Date: March 9, 2022
Inflation is Here: How to Protect Your Retirement
Working with a registered investment advisor in CT, can help alleviate a rise in blood pressure caused by the recent rise in inflation. While retirees are likely to be some of the most affected, an investment advisor can help you prepare with a retirement strategy that accounts for any crisis often resulting in inflammatory periods. Before you can make an informed plan on how to protect your retirement, you need to understand what causes inflation to rise, what you might […]
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Date: March 7, 2022
Evidence Mounts For a Bottom But Something Doesn’t Feel Right
Two days ago, investors, or at least my Twitter feed, were starting to get a little more bullish. Thursday’s action was not constructive although it certainly seems like we go up then down then up then down. Yesterday felt like the peak after the first bounce from the January 24th low. And Friday is not looking so hot to begin the day. I was encouraged that our models showed improvement after the latest low, but one of our aggressive ones […]
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Date: March 4, 2022
More Evidence of a Bottom
Day to day volatility continues, however, price has not done much over the past three days. Russia/Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines, but that’s taking the eyes off the ball. I have written it here and said it in the media many times that the vast majority of the stock market correction is related to the Fed and not geopolitical events. It wasn’t long ago when all the Fed pundits were sure we would see 6, 7 and even 8 […]
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Date: March 2, 2022
Cherry Picked Indicators Screaming Buy
Good morning everyone. It’s always a good Monday when I can get out of bed without too many aches and pains from skiing. I did more reading over the weekend than I have since COVID first spread and I found it so interesting how the opinions about the Russian invasion were across the spectrum. It was everything from Putin is cognitively impaired and going to launch nukes to Putin is a genius, sending only a fraction of the troops into […]
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Date: February 28, 2022
