Slice It How You Want, Yield Curves Point To Recession in 2023
It’s no secret that I have been steadfast this year that the U.S. economy has not been in recession. And yes, I do know that both Q1 and Q2 saw negative GDP growth. It doesn’t matter. That’s not a recession. Sorry. And I am not going to feed into the political nonsense regarding the definition of recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research is the final arbiter of recessions, not politicians nor pundits. Anyway, my economic forecast for 2023 isn’t […]
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Date: November 30, 2022
Seasonal Headwind Today As Black Friday & Cyber Monday Get Weighed
Welcome back to the last week of November. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving! I ate my face off and just finished leftovers this morning for breakfast. I refuse to loosen my belt so it’s going to be an uncomfortable week. My mom and wife went all out with the traditional fare as well as something unusual. Teri makes the single best challah on earth and last week she shaped one into a turkey. Between the Cowboys winning and […]
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Date: November 28, 2022
The Pieces Are Falling Into Place
As I mentioned on Monday this week has a seasonal tailwind, but especially Wednesday and Friday. Then next Monday has a headwind. I found it so interesting that as stocks rallied in broad-based fashion on Tuesday, pundits became so enamored. Since the October 13th bottom, all we have heard was folks selling the bear market rally. Now it seems like pundits pivoted to buying for a year-end rally. I guess after a 12% rally in the S&P 500, the masses […]
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Date: November 23, 2022
Europe & Dow Showing Emerging Index Leadership As Dollar Plummets
Thanksgiving week is here! I love Thanksgiving. I think it’s my favorite holiday. Food, family, football and fun. Markets do too with the week being historically strong. While Monday and Tuesday do not have a tailwind, Wednesday and Friday certainly do. And then one week from today is a seasonally weak day. Since the big bottom in October we know that Europe and NASDAQ 100 rallied the most to the recent highs. S&P 400, emerging markets, Dow Industrials and Russell […]
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Date: November 21, 2022
It’s Tax-Loss Harvest Season
Happy Thanksgiving! I hope your holiday is meaningful, safe and happy. However—with an appreciation for the beloved November holiday—there is another, less celebrated time that we can recognize this year, as well. It is not just harvest season; it’s tax-loss harvest season. In times when even the affluent can be at risk of losing wealth to inflation, that’s a good thing. This article explains these topics: Tax-loss harvesting: what is it & how does it work? Even the affluent need […]
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Date: November 21, 2022
Gridlock Is Good
I spent yesterday in NYC for the first time since early June. And I did something I said I would never do again, or at least for 5 years. I rode the subway, multiple times. I was surprised at how empty it was. I was surprised that people take dogs on now which is against the rules. I was shocked at how many just jumped the turnstile in front of MTA agents and not a single person even flinched. Why […]
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Date: November 18, 2022
The Fall of SBF Continues as Markets Yawn
The FTX news and spectacular collapse of the company and crypto poster boy, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), continues. From 10,000 creditors, last I saw it was up t0 1,000,000 creditors. Other crypto firms are being wiped out in the contagion. Thankfully, it seems limited to that sector and is not systemic. SBF is yet another in a long line of supposed transcenders who knew better and ended up in ruin. The Hunt brothers with silver in 1980. Bernie Madoff in 2008. […]
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Date: November 16, 2022
And They Called ME An Idiot
Last week was chock full of news on all fronts. There was something for everyone, including my Cowboys embarrassingly falling apart in the fourth quarter. Inflation, markets, crypto and geopolitics. I intended to cover everything in detail in this video below, but there just wasn’t time although I was able to touch on all topics. And They Called ME An Idiot In one portion of the video above, I forgot to list some high profile and well-heeled big money investors […]
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Date: November 14, 2022
A Crypto Era Ends – And Not Well
Well, well, well. We certainly have too much to cover today. What a few days, culminating with the sensational rags to riches to bankruptcy story of FTX and one of crypto’s most ardent supporters, Sam Bankman-Fried. I’ll say this. A few years ago when I saw him scaling the ranks of crypto architects, I thought he could be one of the posterchilds for crypto and its future blow up. For years I called the whole crypto craze Dotcom 2.0 and […]
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Date: November 11, 2022
***Special Election Update***
I don’t know how I am going to survive not seeing 8 straight commercials targeting MAGA Mike and Liberal Lisa. And who will send me a barrage of texts warning me that Pelosi is wrecking economy and Trump is threatening our democracy. I am so excited that it’s over. I haven’t written much about the actual election because historically, it’s not a market moving event. Those wondering why I haven’t discussed my model for forecasting elections using stock market and […]
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Date: November 9, 2022
Strong Jobs Report But Look Under The Hood
On Friday the government released the employment report. The economy grew by 261,000 jobs versus the 205,000 estimated. On the surface that is great news. However, when you have a Federal Reserve hellbent on destroying demand, this kind of economic strength only feeds fuel to the higher interest rate fire. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% versus the 3.5% estimated. Without getting wonky the birth death model, an algorithmic tool used to estimate new business openings and closings, added […]
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Date: November 7, 2022
Is Your Retirement Safe in Today’s Bond Market?
Between higher interest rates, inflation, and a tumbling stock market, it may feel like your retirement savings are in danger. So, is this a good time to get (or keep) invested in bonds? The short answer is “Not without doing your homework first.” Let’s take a look at the state of the bond market. Once we have a working knowledge of the pros and cons, you can decide from there if bonds are still a safe investment for your retirement. […]
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Date: November 7, 2022
Powell on the Warpath
What a crazy week! It’s good to be in CT and not flying again until December although I really do love seeing so many folks. Three trips in October was plenty. Atlanta, Dallas and Florida. With skiing in Vermont scheduled to open in one week, it’s time to start packing up although it certainly does not seem like Mother Nature will be cooperating anytime soon. She is giving all her winter love to the Wasatch and the Utah ski areas. […]
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Date: November 4, 2022
***Q3 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. In baseball, people sometimes refer to a homerun as a roundtripper, having started at home and ending at home. This season Aaron Judge of the 27-time world champion New York Yankees hit 62 roundtrippers, the most ever in the American League and really […]
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Date: November 2, 2022
The Most Bullish 6 Months of the Four-Year Cycle
Happy Halloween! This is usually one of my favorite holidays and we planned to be in costume for a party in NYC over but I was still under the weather. And my new cowboy from the Village People costume was all ready! Today is the final day of the month and it has been a seasonally weak day. If history holds serve, Monday is down and then the next four days are up. The stock market is also starting the […]
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Date: October 31, 2022
Market Builds On The Bottom & Still No Recession
I came back Dallas very late Tuesday night and was definitely under the weather. I could feel it building and building for days.Thankfully, it’s not Covid and my doctor said I should be ready to go for Halloween. Traveling isn’t fun when you’re sick. Flying downright stinks. Flight delays from DFW to NYC were just icing on the cake. However, I did have a great trip to NAAIM’s annual Outlook conference which I chaired. I learned a lot, multiples more […]
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Date: October 28, 2022
Sole Survivor: How John’s Planning Supported Jill’s Retirement
Divorce is never easy, but it can be made easier—if you plan for it ahead of time. Believe it or not, you may still retire with confidence in Woodbridge. For example, let’s take a look at how a family working with their financial advisor got through a divorce without undue stress or hardship. We’ll also examine their situation before the split in order to see how they got through it afterward. This article discusses the following: How proactive planning can […]
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Date: October 28, 2022
Confounding The Masses
The bulls came out in force on Friday aided by what was considered to be dovish comments by some Fed members regarding future interest rates hikes. At least that’s what the media attributed the rally to. The reality is that the markets were already set up to rally, but just needed a spark to ignite the gas. Volume came in heavy, but let’s remember that it was the expiration of options where volume typically surges. As I wrote last week, […]
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Date: October 24, 2022
More Signs Of a Bottom, Yankees & Saying Goodbye
The stock market has been down 5 straight Fridays and 8 out of the last 9. That in itself tells you all you need to know about market confidence, or lack thereof. That’s also what happens during a decline that leads into the bottoming process and finally a or the bottom. Most of you know I never shy away from the camera. In fact, I don’t think I have ever met a media story I didn’t like. And it’s not […]
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Date: October 21, 2022
How Inflation Affects Your Taxes in Retirement
Inflation is an inevitable part of life. It means that prices will increase over time, and (believe it or not), in some cases, that is good news. For example, inflation can help the economy grow more quickly and provides more opportunities for workers to raise their salaries over time. Sometimes it can help countries and individuals with high amounts of debt pay their creditors off more easily, as well. However, when it comes to retirement savings and taxes, even for […]
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Date: October 18, 2022
