Bulls Thwart Bears to Finish in The Green – New Highs Still The Call
The stock market finally saw an intra-day reversal from a moderate down first hour to closing in the green in Wednesday. That’s one of the ingredients that gives me stronger conviction of a bottom. While we continue to be positioned for a significant rally based on our models, I still do not have strong conviction that THE bottom is in. And the truth is, I may not get exactly what I want. It could just be one of those times […]
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Date: October 7, 2021
Lots of Investors Negative But Was It THE Low?
After watching a full slate of football on Sunday afternoon (Yeah Cowboys & Jets!) as well as playing 9 holes with the “little guy” who is now 13 and an excellent golf cart driver, I watched 60 Minutes as is my normal routine before the Sunday night NFL game begins. When the teaser showed a whistleblower from Facebook, I took a deep breath and sighed. We own Facebook in one of our strategies and a healthy dose of technology sub-sectors […]
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Date: October 5, 2021
5 Times a DIY Strategy to Financial Planning Doesn’t Work
If you have the time and expertise, you might be able to do your own financial planning. However, most people lack both, which is one of the many reasons to use a financial advisor for guidance. Taking on a task you’re not properly suited for can end in costly, avoidable mistakes. Unfortunately, it takes many DIYers a few big mistakes to finally ask for help. We see this a lot at Heritage Capital, when prospective clients come to us, asking […]
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Date: October 4, 2021
October Not The Bullish Month Many Believe – All-Time Highs Still Coming
Stocks did not end the month of September nor Q3 well. Early strength weakened and the bears pounced into the close. However, that setup leads to a reliably bullish setup from a trend only is active at month and quarter-end. That’s not my opinion or thought; it’s a mechanical system. And if stocks open lower, it would add further strength to that trend. While that was the case when I woke up, news just broke about Merck’s anti-viral clinical three […]
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Date: October 1, 2021
Ugly Day on Tuesday as Pivot in Full Swing
The stock market took it on the chin on Tuesday and my major stock market pivot was in full motion. The major indices were hit with the ugly stick and sectors losses varied depending on economic exposure. However, similar to what I wrote about during the recent pullback, the decline felt worse than it actually was. There has been an unusual amount of negativity in the media. The largest real estate company on earth, Evergrande, defaulted. Inflation has been running […]
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Date: September 29, 2021
Major Stock Market Pivot
After Thursday big surge by the bulls, the bears couldn’t even get a pullback on Friday. Early weakness was quickly bought and I joined that party at the open. Very quietly banks and financials are climbing the ladder of leadership as long-term bond yields are trying to breakout to the upside. That’s probably the biggest and perhaps most important story in the short-term. It’s a return to the “reopening trade” or economically sensitive sectors. The 10-Year Treasury Note is below. […]
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Date: September 27, 2021
Bears Have Tough Few Days – No Stress in Treasury or Junk Markets
Well, well, well, as the pundits and paid actors were advising things like “SELL, SELL, SELL” on Monday, the market did its best to make monkeys out of them once again. I heard one “senior commentator” claim that the late day rally on Monday was just traders “front running” anticipated strength on Tuesday and it was unlikely any rally would hold. Boy does that sound smart. And wrong. In Dow points, the index is now 800 points above that level. […]
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Date: September 24, 2021
Textbook Bullish Setup as Fed Concludes Meeting With Some Uncertainty
FINALLY, we have a FOMC meeting where the outcome isn’t a certainty. HURRAY! First, let’s get discuss how the stock market is supposed to behave. It’s Fed day so the stock market usually trades in a band of plus to minus 0.50% until 2pm and then see a bigger move, usually to the upside. That trend has not played as well under Jay Powell as it did under Yellen and Bernanke. Stocks have also sold off into the Fed meeting […]
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Date: September 22, 2021
Bears Feeling Their Oats This Morning – Enjoy It Now
Looks like we have an ugly opening ahead this morning to begin the weakest week in the weakest month. I did a video yesterday on this and the prospects for higher income and capital gains taxes. You can access it HERE. I always find it interesting how many people email questions and comments when I post new blogs, but especially new videos. This video has already created email inbox buzz. I am guessing the other emails in my inbox might […]
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Date: September 20, 2021
I’m 55; Is It Too Late to Plan for Retirement? 5 Reasons the Answer is No
Maybe a job loss early in your career prompted you to “temporarily” pause your retirement contributions, and once you got resettled, you simply forgot to return to your original plan. Maybe you misguidedly assumed Social Security or a promised inheritance would carry you through your Golden Years and you’re just now realizing it likely won’t. Or maybe life’s short-term goals simply took priority and you felt you just couldn’t save for retirement, especially when it was still decades away and […]
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Date: September 20, 2021
Taxes Going Up – Bears Get Selling
The stock market continues to trade heavy without much magnitude on the downside so far. The WHY isn’t important as you know market reaction is much more so. In a perfect world, as I wrote the other day, I would like to see one more decline to new lows for the week and then a reversal to the upside to begin a run to new highs. That bottom could be the offing next week. Biden and Congressional Democrats seem lined […]
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Date: September 17, 2021
Bulls Biding Time
6 out of 7 days down for the S&P 500 and a scary 2% overall decline. If you listen to paid actors like Jim Cramer, you would think this is a bear market and things are really bad. It was only a few months ago when he implored investors on June 18 not to buy because some technical analyst said the market “always” heads lower to month-end. By the way, June 18 was the low of a three-day pullback and […]
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Date: September 15, 2021
Make That 5 In a Row
Five days in a row stocks have been down. That’s pretty ominous. I mean, after all, the S&P 500 is down a full 1%. It’s time to call the market police. Friday was a bit on the ugly side with the largest down of the five. However, volume was less for the fourth straight day while the S&P 500 has been in an uptrend. Historically, that recipe has been good for a very short-term rally. Add into that we have […]
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Date: September 13, 2021
What You May Not Know About Robo Advisors and Target Date Funds
The initial enthusiasm for something new is sadly often followed by disappointment when more facts come to light. In the investment world, two items that have become popular in the last decade are target date retirement funds and robo advisors. Each promised to provide cost-efficient investment management and superior results. But what has become clear is that whatever their merits, these two methodologies have a number of flaws that require careful consideration. This is especially true when it comes to […]
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Date: September 13, 2021
Remembering 9/11 – Never Forget
20 years since the most heinous attack on American soil. Like previous generations who had their indelible moments, my generation has 9-11. I remember 20 years ago when people said where they were when President Kennedy was assassinated. My grandparents used to talk about Pearl Harbor. On September 10, 2001 I sat at my favorite restaurant in the world, Bern’s Steakhouse, with two buddies debating whether we should make the last flight out and head home from Tampa or stay […]
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Date: September 11, 2021
Bulls Should Be In a Buying Mood
Do people realize that the S&P 500 has been down three straight days? That seems like a lot, but the magnitude has been all of -0.50%. Between the holiday-shortened week and Rosh Hashanah, liquidity has been on the low side. That should start to normalize today and certainly next week. I expect the bulls to put money to work at some point on Thursday morning and we will see later today if that sticks. On the index leadership front, the […]
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Date: September 9, 2021
How to Recover from Financial Loss Right Before Retirement Age
After carefully contributing to your retirement accounts for decades, it can be quite devastating to experience a financial loss just as you prepare to retire. However, while it may feel like it, the world isn’t coming to an end. You can take steps to recover from an untimely loss, but it requires that you keep your perspective rather than surrendering to fear. At Heritage Capital, we can help. How? Here’s an example. When and Why This Can Happen An […]
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Date: September 6, 2021
Jobs Report Lays Another Egg
The August Nonfarm Payrolls Report was released at 8:30am today. Boy, was it another stinker relative to what was expected. 235,000 new jobs were created, embarrassingly below the 750,000 that was expected. However, the unemployment rate did tick lower by .2%. No matter what spin the Biden administration puts out, the economy continues to have its dislocations and struggles. That’s indisputable. “But Paul, 235,000 new jobs is good, right?” In a vacuum, it is. However at this stage of the […]
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Date: September 3, 2021
Beware September – Or So The Uninformed Say
I can’t believe summer ends this weekend. What a crummy summer it has been in New England, especially the weekends. It’s not fair. It’s not fair. It’s not fair. As the calendar turns plenty of pundits have been discussing that September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks. That’s is factually correct. Depending on which year you cherry pick the starting date, September averages a negative return of -1.10% since 1928. However, the devil is really in […]
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Date: September 1, 2021
Powell to the Rescue!
Boy, I did not expect such a bullish market reaction to Jay Powell’s 10am speech on Friday. Powell did not say anything outside the norm, but the market interpreted it as being more dovish, even though the taper is in full view now. I guess people did not believe Powell had strong tapering conviction, even though the Fed paraded out no less than five regional bank presidents who were all lined up for the taper to be announced in September […]
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Date: August 30, 2021
