Damaging The Bullish Case
The seesaw stock market ended on Thursday as the up, down, up, down gave way to strong selling in the afternoon. The recent short-term trading range which I thought would resolve itself to the upside instead broke lower and it was an ugly day for the bulls with 90% of volume coming in stocks moving to downside. I often get asked why something happens and the truth of the matter is that it is never 100% clear. However, in this […]
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Date: June 10, 2022
Choppy & Sloppy
The stock market has certainly been choppy over the past 7 days with three up days and four down days. The S&P 500 is in the same area as it was on May 27. Coming off the first rally from a very volatile bottom, this can be expected. Ultimately, the resolution should be to the upside in the not too distant future. We know that biotech, new innovation and software were hit the hardest. And those groups seem to be […]
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Date: June 8, 2022
Bull Market in Bearishness
It’s amazing how many articles I see and Google searches being made about recessions and bear markets. Since the 2008 financial crisis, investors have typically pivoted very quickly to being negative when headlines were dark. And since 2009 we have not had any long-lasting stock market declines. When I get questioned about the comparison between now and the Dotcom Bubble, there are many enormous differences, but none bigger than the lengthy period it took for investors to become bearish. Every […]
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Date: June 6, 2022
We’re Afraid of Running Out of Money During Retirement
Many Americans might not go completely broke in retirement, but the fear of running out is real, especially when financial markets fall. According to a February 2021 research report by the National Institute on Retirement Security, 56 percent of respondents said they are concerned about achieving a financially secure retirement. The good news is that the right financial professional can help ease your fears by showing you how to make your money last longer. In this article, I share some […]
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Date: June 3, 2022
Adios May
Can I just say good riddance to May and move on? After all, the first 19 days were as painful as any in recent memory. And one of the longest and most relentless selling waves took place through May 20th. The good news was that my loyal readers got a timely warning that a low of significance was forming. During that period I presented a number of indicators and charts which firmly supported my position that “A” bottom was being […]
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Date: June 1, 2022
Historic Selling Wave Ended
As I have been writing about for more than a week, I had high conviction that a low of some sort was forming. Dozens of stars were lining up and even if this was 2008 (it’s not), prices should still rebound 7-15%. And the bulls did what I said they were supposed to do. Step up and squeeze the bears. Prices are back to the peak from Fed day this month where the last plunge began. The bulls should surpass […]
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Date: May 27, 2022
Like a Broken Record – Volatility to Remain High
Greetings from Metro North, my first train ride to New York City since February 2020. Trains are still crowded. Masks are mandatory although 25-33% of the riders are not wearing them. And my parking lot in Milford CT is now a condo complex, something that would have been helpful to know before I arrived. Given how bad traffic has been to NYC, I think I am going to stick with the train for now. I am hoping to get my […]
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Date: May 25, 2022
Lots Of & Increasing Evidence That Stocks Are Bottoming For Now
The markets start the new week with the Dow Industrials having been down 8 straight weeks, the most since 1923 if you believe the old data are correct. This stat has been posted all over social media. It’s just stating the obvious. The stock market has been in one of the most relentless selling waves of all-time. That’s inarguable fact and obvious to anyone with skin in the game. But it’s still not easy to live through. My question for […]
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Date: May 23, 2022
Bear Market Or Not – Looking at Other Bottoms for Clues
The bulls made several stands on Thursday after a total drubbing on Wednesday. And as the all-important 3pm hour started it looked as if the bulls were going to make some noise and eat into the big losses from the day before. But that wasn’t to be, leaving stocks vulnerable into the weekend. Again, the bears need to immediately progress to new lows across the board with conviction to have short-term impact. That’s not the most likely scenario. If stocks […]
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Date: May 20, 2022
How Interest Rate Changes REALLY Impact Retirement
Yes, higher interest rates are here. No, they do not signal the end of your assets or savings. Despite market volatility in the markets and drama in the news, you can still retire with confidence in CT. In fact, retirees and those planning to retire in the New Haven and Hartford areas do not need to panic. Read on and I will explain both why and how you may even be able to increase your returns. Inflation, Interest Rates, […]
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Date: May 20, 2022
Nasty Decline But Not The End of The World
Note to self. Don’t go to the eye doctor first thing in the morning and expect to get work done before lunch with dilated pupils. Wednesday’s stock market decline seems to have really stirred the bears, more so than any one single day this year. Yes, the magnitude was four digits which usually gets people going, but almost nothing scored a new low. Not the Dow Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 400, Russell 2000 nor NASDAQ 100. Only consumer discretionary did […]
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Date: May 19, 2022
I Do Love Lemonade
My last two posts last week were essentially taking lemons and turning them into lemonade. By the way I absolutely love lemonade, especially fresh and naturally flavored ones. Strawberry, blueberry, raspberry. Sign me up! Anyway, I started to see the making of a low last week and the first nail was hammered in on Thursday with confirmation on Friday. That was one of the nastiest and longest selling waves of the modern investing era. And I am assuming that it […]
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Date: May 16, 2022
Carnage Over?
What a long week it has been. What a long month it has been. What a long year it has been. Can we start over? Markets continue to be super volatile and that’s expected at the end of massive selling waves which this turned out to be. Remember, a snowball is biggest the second before it hit the bottom. Through Thursday this wave has lasted 31 days which puts it in rarefied air. We usually see selling waves last 18-25 […]
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Date: May 13, 2022
Finding a Few Rays of Sunshine
The government released CPI today and it came in .2% hotter than expected. Pre-market trading saw an immediate plunge in the equity markets. Early morning trading shows moves in both directions so we will need to see how everything settles out at 4pm. It will be a huge win for the bulls to close mildly lower today and more of the same for the bears with another route. The stock market has been really ugly and I have certainly been […]
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Date: May 11, 2022
Epic Oversold in The Depths of Despair
Monday was an ugly day coming after ugly days on Thursday and Friday. This is what the end of nasty selling waves look like. Monday was the third day in the last few weeks where 90% of the volume was trading in stocks that went down. That is widespread and pervasive selling of the indiscriminate variety. For sure, an entity or two were being forced to liquidate. I heard rumors last week about a major asset allocation shift using ETFs. […]
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Date: May 10, 2022
Strong Selling Wave Continues – Plenty of Opportunities
Good Monday Morning. The weather may finally turn nice in New England, but the markets begin the new week in the same crummy mood as last week and the week before that. And the story remains the same. Higher interest rates. Less confidence in the Fed. Inflation. The correction has been sharp and swift and painful with few places to hide. What different about this one is that the bond market’s decline has much worse on a relative basis. Bonds […]
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Date: May 9, 2022
A Few Green Shoots But For How Long?
What a week it has been! And there is still one day left although I will go out on a limb and say that Friday will look nothing like Wednesday or Thursday. On Wednesday the Fed raised rates by 1/2%, something everyone knew was coming. In my special Fed piece, I said that we would see a juiced post-2pm rally because of the selloff leading up to the meeting. Juiced was an understatement. Stocks soared in the last two hours […]
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Date: May 6, 2022
***Buckle Up Boys & Girls – Special Fed Meeting Update***
The model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Given the correction there is extra juice behind the model for post 2pm. Stocks are supposed to rally and I will add the word “strongly”. Today is the Fed day everyone has been waiting for. The day the Fed finally takes real action to combat inflation and slow down an economy that shrunk by 1.4% in Q1. Yes. You read that right. Jay Powell & […]
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Date: May 4, 2022
Lots of Market Worsts
Horrible week Horrible month Horrible year Lots of Market Worsts A new video is posted.
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Date: May 2, 2022
Negative GDP Growth Already?
Coming in to 2022 one of my main economic themes was slowing growth without recession. That would be accompanied by decelerating earnings growth and finally a blink by the Fed late in the year. On Thursday we got a first glimpse at Q1 GDP which came in at -1.4%, well below estimates of +1%. Yes; I know that people will rationalize it away because it was “inventory”, but facts are facts. I did not see the economy shrinking this early […]
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Date: April 30, 2022
