Risk/Reward Favors the Bulls
The major stock market indices have pulled back to interesting junctures. The risk/reward now favors the upside as long as prices do not close below the low for this week. That’s not much to risk on the downside. While the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have been leading I would like to see some strength from the NASDAQ 100 well before October 29 which the a huge earnings date for mega tech. On the sector front, leadership is very mixed […]
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Date: October 23, 2020
Lack of Volatility More Likely
Last week, I wrote about a little trading range and a larger one. On Monday, the small range broke down, followed by a pause on Tuesday. In the very short-term, the bears should be able to push stocks lower below Monday’s low. The real range is bound by the September high and low. As I keep mentioning in the media, the pundits are and have been dead wrong concerning stock market volatility in an incumbent election year. Stocks are absolutely […]
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Date: October 21, 2020
5 Reasons Baby Boomers Need a Financial Advisor
Nearly 20 percent of Americans are Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964. Many Boomers have already retired, while the remainder have reached or are approaching retirement age. The common challenge shared by most Boomers is how to adequately fund their retirements so that they don’t outlive their money. At Heritage Capital, we work with clients at all stages of their financial journey. And, while just about everyone can benefit from working with a financial advisor, Baby Boomers have specific […]
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Date: October 19, 2020
Bulls Hit the Wall But Path of Least Resistance Remains Higher
The bulls ran into a little trouble on Friday afternoon and gave up all of their gains and then some. Unless we see downside follow through on Monday I am not going to be too concerned. We have a small trading range bound by last week’s high and low. We have a bigger range bound by the high and low of September. Everything in between is just noise. The stock market is at an interesting crossroad regarding leadership. We have […]
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Date: October 19, 2020
Lines in the Sand – Semis Strong
After opening down more than 1% on Thursday, the bulls stepped up as the perceived “value” was too much to ignore after a few straight down days for stocks. We now have two very nice and tidy, short-term lines in the sand. They are bound by this week’s low and high. It’s that simple. Closing above or below those prices should induce more movement in that direction. For now, the bulls are supposed to run prices to the upper blue […]
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Date: October 16, 2020
Broad Participation in the Rally
I want to thank those of you who attended our webinar on Monday night where I reviewed Q3 performance and events as well as offered a sneak peak into Q4 and the election. I am in the process of scheduling a webinar based solely on the election and its market impact. The bulls finally took a breather on Tuesday after a solid run, even in the face of seasonal tailwinds. I still do not get the feeling they are done […]
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Date: October 14, 2020
Bulls Continue to Press Higher
The bulls continued their winning ways to end the week on Friday although it wasn’t as lopsided as the previous two days. There are some conflicting seasonal trends this week with Columbus Day and October expiration having tailwinds with the second five day period of October being a headwind. After seeing underperformance since the early September peak, mega cap tech is trying to regain leadership and that could be a story right into the next stock market. It will be […]
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Date: October 12, 2020
Bulls Running Hot
As you know my thesis has been for one more decline into mid to late October below the recent lows and then a rally into 2021. That was my number one scenario. My second scenario had the mid-September low being the bottom and the market remaining uber strong. Until this week, I felt confident in my view. Now, I have to be open that my less likely scenario may come to fruition. Why? The rally this week has been powerful […]
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Date: October 9, 2020
Lots Going on Beneath the Surface
I guess no one can be surprised that an unexpected tweet from President Trump threw the market for a loop. Certainly, that wasn’t in my forecast nor list of reasons why stocks would fall one more time. For the most part, emotional reversals like Tuesday have been immediately reversed since the bull market began in March. Only a close below Tuesday’s lowest levels would confirm that the decline is in full gear to the bottom I see forming later this […]
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Date: October 7, 2020
Important Retirement Ages
Your retirement benefits are a critical component that determine your quality of life in your Golden Years. You’ve got important decisions to make before and after your retirement date that directly impact your benefits from Social Security and your retirement accounts. Overlooking a few important dates lead to some of the biggest retirement planning mistakes we see made – mistakes that could have easily been avoided. So, open up your calendars and mark down the 8 key dates we highlight […]
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Date: October 6, 2020
Bulls Start the Week in Control
The new week starts with the President seemingly on the mend, but we don’t really know. With all the calls for full transparency with his health, let’s remember that the public was completely kept in the dark when Reagan was shot. No one knew until months later that he almost died on the table. I didn’t spend the time to review Kennedy’s assassination nor Ike’s heart attack. I recall when Bush fainted in Japan and that was quickly dismissed as […]
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Date: October 5, 2020
Trump Contracts Corona – Do Markets Care?
As everyone now knows, President & Mrs. Trump have the Coronavirus. Health scares from the West Wing have not been commonplace and markets typically do not like the uncertainty. We have had them with Bush and Reagan and Ike and more. Market reaction depends on the condition of the markets before the scare occurred. As you know, I have been on the negative side for some and I continue that way today. I have been very firm that I am […]
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Date: October 2, 2020
Election Year Octobers – Don’t Believe What You Hear
October begins today with its reputation of major stock market crashes. 1929, 1987, 1989, 1997 and 2008 come to mind. Truth be told, however, October is really a bear killer more than anything else with some major bottoms forming during the month. 1989, 1990, 1997, 1998, 2002 and 2011. Usually, when stocks are under pressure and declining into October, the month acts as an accelerant to a bottom. When stocks are in an uptrend, the first week of the month […]
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Date: October 1, 2020
Stocks Bounce Right on Schedule – Imagine That!
Last week on Wednesday and Friday, I changed my tune and starting looking for a rally after a full correction had taken place in the major stock market indices. I also wrote about the NASDAQ 100 retaking its leadership position. The bulls definitely reasserted themselves on Friday and Monday with back to back strong rallies. 85% of trading volume on Monday was in stocks that went up, a powerful sign of more to come over the intermediate-term. However, the 85% […]
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Date: September 29, 2020
How to Test Drive Your Retirement: Addressing Retirees’ 3 Biggest Fears
Are you a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty type of person? Whichever camp you belong to, it’s realistic to have concerns about your retirement life. The changes that retirement brings deserve serious thought, and more importantly, action. It’s even better if you can test drive your retirement to see if the plans you put forth really work for you. The team at Heritage Capital has been helping people retire with confidence for more than 30 years. In that time, we’ve identified the […]
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Date: September 28, 2020
Looking for a Bounce Now
It’s been a relatively volatile week in the markets, but nothing compared to Q1 and April. Here is what we know today as the final day of the week begins. The NASDAQ 100 which led the way down forged its lowest price on September 21. The other four major stock market indices saw their lows on September 24. That’s the first clue that something may be changing, at least in the very, very short-term which is how trends begin. I […]
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Date: September 25, 2020
Market Finds Temp Low on Schedule But More Downside Ahead
The major stock market indices found their initial low in the expected zone of Monday/Tuesday. That’s the good news. A bounce began and it is supposed to last more than just a day and a half. However, if the indices roll over now, Monday’s low will be breached very quickly and we could see some sharp downside follow through. This remains the weakest week on the calendar. Monday’s action saw the NASDAQ 100 close up on the day, but the […]
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Date: September 23, 2020
Sell Rosh Hashanah Buy Yom Kippur – Bears in Charge
There has been a trend in place for many, many decades that says to sell heading into the Jewish High Holy Days and buy coming out of them. Friday was the day to sell and next Monday’s close is the day buy. The theory says that Jewish investors would sell their material possessions during the most sacred period of their year to reflect on the year that was and atone for their sins as the period ends on Yom Kippur. […]
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Date: September 21, 2020
Market Bottom Still Ahead
This is just a quick update as the market is about to open. My thoughts remain the same and clear. The bottom is not in just yet. I remain concerned in the short-term. At a minimum I want to see the recent lows breached. If one index bucks the trend, that’s the index I will focus on for the next rally. Since mid-July I have written about the frothiness, the giddyness and the greed in the Fab Five Plus NASDAQ […]
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Date: September 18, 2020
Fed Day – Will Bears Join the Party?
Today is yet another conclusion of the Fed’s two-day meeting where nothing major is being anticipated. Sure, it’s the first meeting since Jackson Hole where Powell offered a change to the Fed’s 2% ceiling on inflation, but I only expect additional details that do not move the markets nor the economy. The Fed has done a lot, extraordinary measures. And they created the longest runway in history before rates will be hiked again. But remember, meteorologists have better track records […]
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Date: September 16, 2020
