Pause to Refresh or Mild Pullback Underway
Earlier this week, I turned neutral for the short-term in the stock market. That’s all it is. Neutral when I look out a few days to a few weeks. I am not calling for any decline of significance and we may not even see a noticeable pullback. Stocks could go sideways to work off what I see as investors becoming a little too giddy or they could mildly pull back. My work doesn’t support much more than that. Of course, […]
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Date: November 8, 2019
Dow Joins Party. Stocks a Bit Tired
Greetings from 36,000 feet on some bumpy air, which is the norm when I fly. On Monday, the Dow Industrials joined the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 in fresh, all-time high territory. That’s now three of the five major stock market indices which have accommodated my bullish forecast. The last two, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 still have a ways to go, but I am still very optimistic that they will join their cousins later this quarter or by early […]
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Date: November 5, 2019
More New Highs Coming. The Celebration Continues.
Right on cue, the NASDAQ 100 followed the S&P 500 into all-time high territory. And before you ask, I still believe the Dow, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 will be there shortly. Not a single note of my tune has changed. The bull market remains alive and well and higher prices are a comin’. Of course, you wouldn’t know this from listening to the chorus of bears who remain firm that Armageddon is just around the corner. Taking a quick […]
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Date: November 4, 2019
Crickets and BUT BUT BUT from the Bears
Well, the Fed cut rates as expected. Powell said they are moving to neutral or pause mode, as expected. Stocks generally liked what they heard and closed near the highs for the day. Semis have struggled a bit over the past few days but I am not concerned in the least just yet. I think they have a chance to really soar into year-end. This morning, the employment report came in better than expected as well as seeing upward revisions […]
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Date: November 1, 2019
Fed to Cut Rates, Indicate Pause & Move to Neutral
What to Expect Today The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to cut interest rates by another 1/4% at 2:00pm on Wednesday. The market is expecting it and the cut has already been priced in. Any other action would be a shocker. With stocks essentially at to all-time highs, this continues to be reminiscent of 1995 when the Fed came from an overly restrictive monetary policy in 1994 to realizing they screwed up and quickly played catch up. Stocks […]
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Date: October 30, 2019
All-Time Highs Are Here. WHO KNEW?!?!
The S&P 500 is poised to open at fresh, all-time highs this morning. Absolutely none of my readers should be the least bit surprised. I have written about it every single week this entire year. And the stock market isn’t done. I have made fun of and called out the bears every step of the way to outcries of “BUT, BUT, BUT” whenever presented with facts. They hate. They disavow. They call for the end of the world. They have […]
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Date: October 28, 2019
Stock Market Quiet. Earnings Volatile. Semis Getting Ready to Soar
Greetings from Baltimore where I am doing a quick one night trip to visit with some clients and an old friend and former colleague. As always, there is great food and wine. If all goes well and Southwest delivers, I should be home for Blue Bloods tonight and get a good night’s sleep for our final weekend of baseball and softball. Stocks continue to trade very quietly this week, despite some wicked moves in individual stocks from earnings announcements. Twitter, […]
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Date: October 25, 2019
Lots of Negativity But Stocks Close to Blue Skies
Stocks begin the new week with the Dow Industrials masking the overall strength of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Remember, the Dow only has 30 stocks and they are weighted by price. So, high prices stocks move the index a lot more than mid or lower priced ones. Boeing has been hit with the ugly stick for 40+ points over the past two days which equates to roughly 280 Dow points. While the Dow has stalled out with a […]
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Date: October 21, 2019
Junk Bonds & the A/D Line Say All is Okay
From open to close, stocks have traded in a narrow range most of this week and around the same level each day except for Tuesday. As the old highs in the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have come into reach, investors are pausing as they usually do to assess risk and reward. While I do not think it’s a layup for a breakout right here, I feel very confident that Dow 28,000 will be kissed this quarter with […]
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Date: October 18, 2019
Deal? What Deal???
I am sure I am not the only one who is really skeptical about this “trade deal” with China being real. While I am sure the two parties agreed on some items, we are so far from a real deal, signed, sealed and delivered. This doesn’t even sound like an agreement in principle since the Chinese have a different recollection and their state run news service tells their own story. This saga is far from over. The stock market was […]
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Date: October 14, 2019
Bears Wrong, Again?
On Monday, I wrote about the bulls thwarting the bears with another low forming in the stock market. I also showed some of the fuel that was building up for higher prices in the form of very negative options traders who are usually wrong. Couple that with my Twitter feed turning negative and the bears ostracizing my bullish view, I felt pretty good that stocks would rally. And rally they have in short order, catching the masses off guard. I […]
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Date: October 11, 2019
Bulls Thwart Bears With Another Low
Last Wednesday as stocks had pulled back to the lower end of the recent trading range, I thought we were about to see a showdown between the bulls and the bears. That battle was fought one day later as an early morning mini-collapse triggered by a poor manufacturing number flushed out the sellers and allowed the bulls to come roaring back the rest of the day with a beautiful intra-day reversal. On Friday, the bulls added to those gains and […]
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Date: October 7, 2019
The Truth About October
With Rosh Hashanah taking me out of the office for two days, I forgot to offer some stats as the sometimes nasty month of October begins. I cannot recall who first alerted me to the breakdown I am about to show so I will just say thanks to my usual cadre of characters whose work I value and respect. Rob Hanna, Ari Wald, Jason Goepfert and Tom McClellan. Overall, October has been better known for stock market bottoms than any […]
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Date: October 3, 2019
Lower End of Range Hit – Can Bulls Make a Stand?
Last week was the single worst week of the year based on seasonal patterns and it certainly lived up to the billing I gave it several times here. Weak seasonality didn’t end last Friday. It extends to the first part of October. For the past few weeks I have been in the trading range / mild pullback camp with an eye on the upper and lower ends of recent range. After stocks failed to exceed the top of the range […]
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Date: October 2, 2019
Stock Market Reaction to Impeachment
Here we go. I remember writing about impeachment in 1998 and hoped and prayed the country wouldn’t have to experience this kind of political circus again. It took 21 years, but the circus is back in D.C. Thankfully, since we only have two prior, modern day instances of impeachment, stock market results are certainly not statistically significant. Given that, however, let’s take a look at the environments surrounding each of the prior two along with where we are today. First, […]
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Date: September 27, 2019
Void of Relevant Data Makes Market Vulnerable to Headlines
With the Fed meeting behind us and earning season still a few weeks away, the markets are now acutely focused on geopolitical news. In other words, the markets are very susceptible to the latest headline or tweet. From my seat, stocks remain in a little range which I mentioned on Monday and you can see below on the right side of the chart bound by the purple line and blue line. While stocks could pop a little in very short-term, […]
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Date: September 25, 2019
Weak Week Clouds Short-Term Picture
Welcome to the single weakest week of the year, at least that’s what history suggests over the past 30 years or so. The five days after September options expiration have not been kind to the stock market overall. I should have done a little more digging to see how stocks behaved when they were already in uptrends heading into this week. Usually, September is much weaker when it begins with weakness, as I wrote about in The Myth of September’s […]
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Date: September 23, 2019
THE Weakest Seasonality of the Year is Here
Stocks are looking a little tired. That’s my take today. The bulls have tried twice to score new highs, but the bears have put up a little resistance over the past two weeks. While I do not believe the market is on the verge of a bear market or even a 10% decline, risk/reward is no longer tilted strongly towards the bulls. And that’s okay. FYI, next week is the weakest week of the year on an historical basis for […]
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Date: September 20, 2019
Here Comes Another Cut, But Will the Markets Celebrate?!?!
What to Expect Today The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to cut interest rates by another 1/4% at 2:00pm on Wednesday. The market is expecting it and the cut has already been priced in. Any other action would be a shocker. With stocks so close to all-time highs, this is again reminiscent of 1995 when the Fed came from an overly restrictive monetary policy in 1994 to realizing they screwed up and quickly played catch up. Stocks had […]
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Date: September 18, 2019
Stocks Were Looking for an Excuse to Pull Back
While stocks had another nice run last week, they didn’t exactly close Friday with much strength. That’s not surprising given how most of the major stock market indices were pushing up against all-time highs. So many times, we will a see security come back up and say hello to a previous important peak, only to watch it pause or mildly pullback first. The weekend news about Iran or Yemen conducting drone attacks on Saudi refining facilities was just what the […]
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Date: September 16, 2019
