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Just The 4-8% Pullback

After a quick little bloodbath on Wednesday, stocks saw a feeble bounce on Thursday with another rollover to the downside looking to be the case on Friday. I would be shocked if Wednesday was the low to buy for a run to new highs. The most likely scenario has stocks making new lows for the week and that spills over into next week. This should be the 4-8% pullback in Q1 I have written about so often. I can only […]   Read More
Date: January 29, 2021

BEWARE! – Stocks (Gamestop) Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent

The stock market looks to open bright red today, something we haven’t seen in a while. Are short-term traders prepared? No way. I am guessing that even a mild to modest single digit decline will have most of them under their desks, sucking their thumbs in the fetal position. Look, the market has seen epic greed and euphoria since early November. However, the foundation of the market has been very solid until the past week. The theme over the past […]   Read More
Date: January 27, 2021

Sentiment Remains Ripe – Foundation Rock Solid

As I did my weekend review, it was apparent that all five major stock market indices were perfectly in sync, something that has been the case on and off since the bull market began. Usually, it has been the Nasdaq 100 or the Russell 2000, but today, the Dow Industrials are a little off. I do not believe this is a big deal in the grand scheme of things. As you know I have been writing about the epic level […]   Read More
Date: January 25, 2021

A Crack in the Pavement

Sitting here on Inauguration Day watching the markets shoot to new highs, I found myself complaining that so many of our positions were not participating in the rally that saw the major indices higher by 1.50% to 2.50%. That is unusual behavior. Now, I am not talking about the major indices we own like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Of course, they did fine. I am referring to our sector holdings and individual stocks. When I looked closer at […]   Read More
Date: January 21, 2021

***Q4 Client Update***

Many people like to read my very brief quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop reading here. The year where time stood still and just wouldn’t end has finally come to a close. It was certainly a year that will live in infamy. Most importantly, I am grateful that you and our other clients survived. 2020 was one of those generational years that made an indelible […]   Read More
Date: January 20, 2021

How Stocks Fare on Inauguration Day & Beyond

Wednesday is Inauguration Day (ID), a time of supposed new beginnings and a fresh start for the country. The truth of the matter is that stocks have been behaving as if there has been a new administration since the day after Election Day which they typically do. That’s how the four-year Presidential Cycle works in the markets. The markets don’t wait until January 20th and then realize there is a new sheriff in town. Intuitively, you would think that with […]   Read More
Date: January 19, 2021

Do You Really Need a Financial Advisor? Investing Mistake #1: Not Considering Inflation!

As a financial advisor in Woodbridge, CT, as well as the founder and president of Heritage Capital, I see some of the same dangerous mistakes made by DIYers (and sometimes bad financial advisors) when putting together a financial plan. It is not properly factoring in the detriments of inflation. Inflation is a general rise in prices over time, which reduces your purchasing power. In other words, it cuts your standard of living. It’s been tame for years, but don’t be […]   Read More

Pullback is Here – Foundation Strong

The stock market looks to open mildly lower and the media is blaming incoming President Biden’s recently unveiled $1.9 trillion spending bill. Yet again, that is pure and utter nonsense. The market already knew his plan would be in the trillions and that it is already dead on arrival in its current form. It’s almost as if any down day needs an explanation as they are no longer allowed. Since October 30th when I pounded the table that this was […]   Read More
Date: January 15, 2021

Dotcom Era Euphoria Doesn’t Mean Imminent Bear Market

The short answer is yes. Epic greed and euphoria remain in the markets. Bitcoin may have mildly pulled back and Tesla hasn’t made a new high this week, but that won’t correct what is the single worst sentiment backdrop since the Dotcom Bubble. However, unlike the Dotcom era, the stock market’s foundation remains fairly solid. Recall that when the Dotcom stocks soared, they were the only game in town. The vast majority of stocks peaked in May 1998. Today, the […]   Read More
Date: January 13, 2021

All Smart Eyes on the Dollar – Top 15 Resolutions Video is Up

As you know, I offered my full Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2021 on Fox61 last week and I actually sped through the entire list. Over the weekend I made a video of that list and went into more detail on each of the resolutions. Here it is below. Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2021 Since Friday’s blog post, there is nothing that has changed any of my thinking regarding the markets. Stocks look like they will open down by […]   Read More
Date: January 11, 2021

Easy Money and Fun

So far in this young year, we have seen a new variant of highly contagious COVID, a blue sweep in Georgia resulting in unified government in DC and a massive protest gone awry with the United States’ Capitol being stormed by lunatics and destructive people. If I read you those headlines from Japan, Germany or Brazil and asked you to guess how their stock markets were performing, I think it is safe to say those most would estimate at least […]   Read More
Date: January 8, 2021

What Santa Claus, Q4 and 2020 Say About 2021’s Market Return

In November and December the media was all abuzz with the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) and January Effect. Now that the SCR has ended and there is a result,  no one seems to care about it. That’s very typical. If you are keeping score at home, the SCR which is technically the final five trading days of the year and first two of the new year, yielded +1%. Revisiting Yale Hirsch’s old adage, “Should Santa Claus fail to call, bears […]   Read More
Date: January 6, 2021

The First Downside Catalyst of 2021 – Georgia on My Mind

Here we are in 2021 and nothing has changed as the calendar turned. The stock market remains in an epic state of greed and euphoria, the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Dotcom era although January 2017 and 2018 as well as Q4 2019 were close. The market’s foundation was very solid, but there are a number of cracks appearing the lead me to believe we will see at least a short, sharp pullback of 4-8% in Q1. […]   Read More
Date: January 4, 2021

Investing in Volatile Markets: Heritage Capital Addresses Concerns

Market volatility is constant, yet it’s common for investors to forget during strong bull markets. We all got a reminder in 2020. With a new year upon us, investors are now asking: What if another 2020 happens? How do long-term investors prepare for volatility? As founder and president of Heritage Capital, I’ve been helping investors since 1988. Volatility fluctuates over time, providing opportunities and challenges for investors who tend to feel more uncertain during highly volatile markets. It is like […]   Read More
Date: January 4, 2021

Pay Attention – January Has The Most Stock Market Trends of The Year

Welcome to 2021! I hope you had a safe and at least a semi-enjoyable New Year’s. After a delicious dish of langostinos with squid ink pasta in a spicy sauce that I think had some bacon and an amazing 2007 Shafer Relentless, I fell asleep on the couch from 8 to 10pm. When I awoke, the Shafer was long gone and my son and I started watching some random show that turned out to be really great and highly recommended. […]   Read More
Date: January 2, 2021

Calendar FINALLY Turning to 2021 – Careful What You Wish For

If you’re keeping score at home Santa and L5 are +1.13% with L5 ending today. There is a very specific trend for which major stock market indices are suppose to be owned next week which I will share. Today is the last day to realize capital gains and losses for 2020. We have harvested as many losses as we can for 2020 already. In hindsight, we should have been even more proactive early in 2020 during the Corona Crash. As […]   Read More
Date: December 31, 2020

Greed & Euphoria Still Present – Foundation Beginning to Crumble

It’s odd that stocks look tired at this time of year. The normal trend is to see a mild and gentle drift higher into January, and perhaps that is what we are seeing if you just look at price action. However, the stock market’s foundation which I have called solid and strong has and is weakening. At best, it is now neutral. Neutral by itself is okay if market sentiment is supportive. The problem is that we now have more […]   Read More
Date: December 30, 2020

Santa Claus’ Time to Call – L5 Results From Paul

Historically, as I have been mentioning for weeks, the market is in the midst of one of the most favorable times of the year. The big picture is positive seasonality from November 1 through April 30 with November and December being especially strong. More granular, late December through early January is even better. And the traditional Santa Claus Rally (SCR) began at the close of trading on December 23rd. That’s five trading days before year-end and the first two trading […]   Read More
Date: December 28, 2020

Top Year-End Financial Tips for 2020

Well, my segment on Fox 61 did not go as planned. My scheduled time got pushed back right into a hard commercial stop and I wasn’t able to offer one of my favorite lists. Instead of crying and breaking my desk, like I did when the Jets won a meaningless football game on Sunday and lost the next great quarterback to come into the NFL, I did the next best thing. I made my own video of my Top Year-End […]   Read More
Date: December 23, 2020

Stocks Down at the Open? Call the Market Police!

On Friday we saw some truly unusual behavior during the final hour of trading. However, with a $675 stock like Tesla joining the S&P 500 with a weighting of 1.52%, the action was more understandable, but no less crazy. I would have expected the final 30 minute surge in the major indices to be unwound this morning. Waking up and seeing a 1-2% decline in the pre-market sets a different tone for the day. That’s the biggest move lower since […]   Read More
Date: December 21, 2020