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News Quieting – Volatility to Follow

As we typically see this time of year, the news flow is quieting down and the markets have been even quieter. This trend is supposed to be in place for the rest of the year. The markets may have a day or two where they hit a pocket of air, much like you experience when flying, but overall, the trend is to see a mild drift higher. As I have written about for more than a month, any and all […]   Read More
Date: December 17, 2020

Seasonal Low This Week – Big Bears Still Wrong

As you know I have been writing about this very mild patch of seasonal softness in early to mid-December. Historically, it is ends this week at some point. Given how little stocks have pulled back, it is entirely possible that all we end up seeing is some sideways action with a percent or two on the downside. This is also the period where small caps historically outperform large caps from mid-December through early January. A year ago, I was sounding […]   Read More
Date: December 14, 2020

New Year’s Resolutions: Using What We Learned From 2020 (And 1986)

The year 2020 will not soon be forgotten. For some, the market created significant new wealth. But for many folks, the year was terrible in terms of health and finances. Even so, it’s an ill wind that blows no good, so we would do well to pay attention to the year’s hard-learned lessons. Perhaps the best way to do this is to apply some new wisdom to our 2021 New Year’s resolutions. Another year worth studying is 1986, leading up […]   Read More

Seasonal Headwind But Junk is Stress Free

Stocks continue to digest and very mildly pull back. The NASDAQ 100 has been the “worst”, but still barely noticeable so far. As I keep mentioning we are in a seasonally soft time of year for another week. That doesn’t mean crash, just a mild headwind. I fully expect the media to again report on the plethora of negative news. Record COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Stimulus stalled for the umpteenth time. Government runs out of money tonight. But keep […]   Read More
Date: December 11, 2020

When the Ducks Quack, Wall Street Feeds Them

For the past week or so I have been writing about a mild seasonal soft patch that usually occurs right about now. It’s the post-Thanksgiving to mid-December period of digestion where we typically see the rally moderate, flatten out and then mildly pull back. All the signs were there that the peak was on Wednesday morning. Should the major indices immediately recover and find new highs, my thesis will be wrong. Otherwise, I will look for a low next week […]   Read More
Date: December 10, 2020

December With a New Party in Power

Last week, we looked at the seasonally strong month of December and what tailwinds were ahead. Recall, that there is also a small headwind which begins now when it blows. Should this soft patch develop, it is usually nothing more than a pause or mild pullback of a few percent lasting up to two weeks. With a change of power in the White House, I went back and checked December performance. Since 1992, the bulls have a perfect record. Keep […]   Read More
Date: December 7, 2020

Does Your Retirement Plan Cover You for Life?

One factor that can complicate your retirement planning is not knowing how many years your retirement will last. While no one can know for sure, if you haven’t considered your realistic life expectancy, you risk shortchanging your later years or even running out of money. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the average length of retirement is 18 years. People retire at age 63 on average, and a general life expectancy is 81 years. That means a typical retirement plan […]   Read More
Date: December 7, 2020

Seasonal Soft Patch, Sector Rotation and the Greenback’s Plunge

As I started to mention the other day, during this time of year we have a very light, seasonal soft patch in stocks that usually begins with the rally moderating, then going sideways and finally pulling back mildly. With momentum so strong right now, we will see shortly if this comes to fruition. The rally has been moderating but that’s been it. Very quietly, we have seen the defensive sectors like REITs, staples and utilities really start to lag as […]   Read More
Date: December 4, 2020

December Seasonally Strong with Soft Patch Coming up to Santa

The last month of the year has begun. Usually at this time of year I comment that I can’t believe how fast the year flew by. However, 2020 hasn’t conformed to any historical norms. It feels like the year that just won’t end. The year that time stood still. December is the second month of the strong seasonal period of November through April. December is also one of the strongest months of the year. Going one step further, December is […]   Read More
Date: December 2, 2020

Seasonal Weakness Today – Big Sea Change Elsewhere

Last Wednesday’s and Friday’s very strong seasonal tendency came in a bit muted, however with such a powerful rally coming into those days, no one can be surprised. Today, there is a strong headwind as the Monday after Thanksgiving always is. It is also the last day of the month where some portfolio games are sometimes seen. Over the past week or so, there has been a subtle shift back into the Fab Five Plus mega cap technology stocks and […]   Read More
Date: November 30, 2020

Strong Seasonal Trend – Market Frothy

I hope everyone had a happy, safe and meaningful Thanksgiving! Today is one of those abbreviated trading sessions where many market participants often skip. While I would rather be skiing if I am being honest, my recovery is preventing that so off to the office it is. The Friday after Thanksgiving has a very bullish seasonal edge, even stronger than the Wednesday before which did not work out. Next Monday has a strong headwind so super short-term traders might be […]   Read More
Date: November 27, 2020

Seasonal Trends Cranking Up

There has been so much written about the strong seasonal trends this week, specifically Wednesday and Friday. They are historically strong days, followed by next Monday being seasonally weak. The details do not matter. However, let’s remember that stocks have been in rally mode since October 30 with barely a whiff of weakness. Don’t be surprised if some or much of the seasonal tailwind dissipates. And while on the topic of positive tailwinds, we know the period from November through […]   Read More
Date: November 25, 2020

Yellen the Safe Pick – Brainard not Far Behind

Joe Biden et al leaked that Janet Yellen will become his Treasury chief. Lost in the celebration of her becoming the first female to do this is that she that Wall Street absolutely loves the pick. I suspect a whole more than the progressive wing of the Democrats. Yellen is a known quantity and least concerning about upsetting the apple cart. Let’s not also forget that she should sail through a red or blue Senate for confirmation. Biden knows her […]   Read More
Date: November 24, 2020

Sentiment Giddy

Last week, I listed a number of reasons why the stock market was on a solid foundation. Today, I want to counter that and offer concerns on the sentiment side of the equation. Remember, in the past two updates I described a tug o’ war or dichotomy. Below is a chart which shows the weekly bull/bear poll from the American Association of Individual Investors. Last week you can see in green there were more than 50% bulls while the bear […]   Read More
Date: November 23, 2020

Stock Market’s Foundation is Rock Solid

As I mentioned the other day, stocks haven’t soared beyond their Pfizer Monday highs like most people “feel”. In fact, the opening from two Mondays ago turned out to be a pretty good selling opportunity in real time and in hindsight although I do not see this as a peak of any significance. There are two points of view now and both may end up being right. I briefly touched on the fact that market sentiment has become on the […]   Read More
Date: November 19, 2020

I’M BACK – Markets Happy

As Randy Quaid said in Independence Day, Arnold said in Terminator and Jack said in The Shining,  I’M BACK. Well, kinda, sorta. While Randy and Arnold were awesome in those movies, Nicholson is among the greatest actors ever and The Shining may be the greatest horror movie of all-time. I still remember watching it from under a table in my parents’ house with blankets making a fort around me. Hearing people say “redrum” continues to give me chills. As I […]   Read More
Date: November 18, 2020

Why People Don’t Participate in Their 401(k) Plans … And Why That’s a Big Mistake

Here’s a shocking statistic: In 2018, almost 30 percent of private sector workers with access to a 401(k) or similar plan did not participate. Here’s another one: About 20 percent of participants don’t take full advantage of their employer’s matching program. As the founder of Heritage Capital, this boggles my mind. Failure to fully take advantage of a 401(k) is truly a big mistake and can mean a shortfall of hundreds of thousands of dollars at retirement time. Why are […]   Read More
Date: November 17, 2020

The Light at the End of the Tunnel – Thank You Pfizer!

It was amazing to wake up to see the huge success of Pfizer’s COVID vaccine! 90% efficacy. What a total game changer for the country and the world with hundreds of other vaccines and therapeutics behind that. I know that I will be the first in line when they allow me to receive the vaccine, probably next year. (For full transparency, we own Pfizer which has been a dog for too long.) Global stock markets are soaring again, but I […]   Read More
Date: November 9, 2020

Fed Day – When the Ducks Quack, Feed Them

Although we don’t officially know the election results, it seems all but certain that Joe Biden will win and Mitch McConnell will remain Leader. And the markets are absolutely loving it. There were plenty of chances to buy ahead of this melt up and I was crystal clear about it last week several times. Now may be a better opportunity to feed the ducks as they are quacking. In other words, investors are hungry for stocks this week when they […]   Read More
Date: November 5, 2020

President Biden & Leader McConnell – Markets Celebrate

Although the election remains too close to call, the markets have done a good job at telling us that the Senate will remain red while Joe Biden will likely win the presidency by a few electoral votes. That means political gridlock will continue which is exactly what the markets like. Neither party can push through their agenda. I haven’t done the research, but I don’t recall any time in the modern era where the House was blue, Senate was red […]   Read More
Date: November 4, 2020