The Low Looks In
In yesterday’s post, I mentioned that the window for a low had just begun to open and that I thought stocks were still on pace to find buyers by the end of next week. The bull seem to have cooperated on the early side of the time range although I am certainly not beating my chest that I called the bottom to the day. Today is month and quarter end so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some “curious” activity, […]
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Date: June 29, 2018
Window Beginning to Open for a Low, BUT…
As I wrote twice this week already, I don’t think the pullback was over just yet. My original thought was it was a 5-7 day affair which has a low in place by next week in the 23,500 to 24,000 range for the Dow. The market is entering that zone now and puts today on watch for a bottom if we can get some early selling to be thwarted by mid-afternoon. While the Dow and S&P 500 continue to be […]
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Date: June 28, 2018
Bears Attack. Bulls Defend.
Stocks were experiencing a strong selloff on Monday right through lunch. Then Trump trade chief, Peter Navarro, hit the media circuit to “clarify” what was being reported by the Wall Street Journal which was a cessation of Chinese investments into U.S. technology companies. Now normally, Larry Kudlow would have been the administration’s mouthpiece, but he has been recovering from a heart attack. So, the most protectionist person in the administration had to come out as less protectionist. An odd day […]
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Date: June 26, 2018
Bears Out of Hibernation
The bulls could barely muster a feeble bounce on Friday, especially after the Dow was down 9 straight days, something that does not occur too often in a bull market. Keep in mind, however, that those 9 down days only amounted to a 3.4% decline which is basically one or two bad days. Additionally, as you can see below, the Dow is once again visiting its average price of the last 200 days, more affectionately know as the 200 day […]
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Date: June 25, 2018
Don’t Get Fooled by Negative Nonsense
After an ugly opening stocks scratched and clawed to cut their losses on Tuesday, something I did not expect to happen. The bulls’ strength was impressive. I was hoping to see some follow through on Wednesday, but that did not materialize. The Dow Industrials remain the weakest index followed by the S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000. I was clearly wrong in the glimmer of hope the value sector gave for new leadership. Their leadership will one […]
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Date: June 20, 2018
Bulls on Their Heels, Unlikely Enough Strength to Muster a Stand
The bulls mustered enough strength on Monday to avoid closing anywhere near last week’s lows. That was mildly impressive. However, the Trump Tariff Tantrum is front and center today as it was on Monday as overnight action looks like a nasty 300+ point decline to begin Tuesday. Unlike yesterday, I will be surprised if the bulls have enough power and ammunition left to thwart the bears. Taking somewhat of a stab in the dark, I would imagine a day where […]
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Date: June 19, 2018
Trump Tariff Tantrum Again
Stocks came back from some mild morning weakness on Friday but still look like they want to pause to refresh as the on again, off again continuation of the Trump Tariff Tantrum is front page now. In the very short-term, it’s pretty easy. Closing above last week’s highs gives the bulls energy to move higher. Closing below Friday’s low means stocks could see a mild 2-3% pullback before heading to all-time highs in Q3. The seasonal trends show some weakness […]
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Date: June 18, 2018
Bears May Have Reason to Celebrate But It Will Be Short-Lived
On Wednesday with most of our tried and true Fed Day trends muted, I mentioned the possibility for a negative set up. With the S&P 500 down on statement day, that set up a shorting opportunity for yesterday, today and into next week. Nothing big, just some potential mild weakness after a very nice run into the Fed meeting. If any weakness does materialize, it will be interesting to see if tech cedes leadership in favor of value. With the […]
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Date: June 15, 2018
Canaries in the Coal Mine Part III – The Others
The final group of canaries don’t have anything in common. I just grouped them together to avoid having three more small canaries. Let’s start with high yield (junk) bonds which I write about very often on the blog. I like to use one of the exchange traded funds (ETF) ones as well as one from the mutual fund space. Right below, you can see JNK which is one of the two major high yield bond ETFs. It peaked in early […]
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Date: June 15, 2018
Canaries in the Coal Mine Part II – Sectors
Let’s turn to the next group of canaries and see how our sectors were doing at the January peak. First, I am repeating the Dow Industrials with the Dow Transports right below it to show Dow Theory which says that these two indices should be making highs together or a warning is sent. While both indices saw all-time highs in January, you may observe that they were on the same day or even week. That would not be a warning […]
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Date: June 14, 2018
Canaries in the Coal Mine Part I – Indices
Canaries in the coal mine is always a vitally important issue for me to write as it speaks to the long-term, especially when it comes to the risk of a bear market. In 2018, since stocks corrected 12% in February, I have boldly, firmly and confidently stated on CNBC, on Fox Business, on Yahoo Finance, on all local stations in CT and almost every week on the blog that the bull market which began in March 2009 remains alive and […]
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Date: June 13, 2018
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Continued Arrogance & Pomposity Spells Recession***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends were muted and today is no different. As with most statement days, the model for the day calls for stocks to return plus or minus 0.50% until 2:00 PM. […]
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Date: June 13, 2018
Leadership A Changin’
Stocks appear to be shrugging off the reversal I wrote about last week, pretty much as expected. There is a lot of the news docket this week with the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday as well as the summit in Singapore with North Korea. While the latter will be all the focus, the former has a much better chance of moving the markets. You should expect another special Fed edition shortly. Over the past week or so, index leadership […]
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Date: June 11, 2018
ANOTHER Reversal
While stocks opened higher on Thursday, the bulls couldn’t hold on to those gains as the Trump Tariff & Trade Tantrum sprouted up again. With the G7 meeting this weekend, stocks are probably going to pause and let tensions cool off. As headlines and tweets crossed the wires, stocks gave up those early gains and for a few hours, selling was strong. Below is a chart that has become all too familiar. It’s the Russell 2000 Index of small cap […]
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Date: June 8, 2018
Bulls in Charge. Oil Corrects
With the elevator pattern broken, stocks have enjoyed a nice rally since Friday. The Dow Industrials are FINALLY getting off their rear end and seem poised to visit 25,100. All of the other major indices are well above that comparable level with the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 at new highs. The S&P 500 and S&P 400 are gearing up for new highs. Markets are much healthier with the Dow lagging than leading. Sector leadership is strong and improving. The […]
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Date: June 6, 2018
Follow Through???
Stocks ended last week with a solid up day, completing four days of down, up, down, up. The elevator ride may try to end today as stocks are poised to rise at the open. We will have to see if we get a run throughout the day or if they fade and end up in the red. With earnings season over and the biggest economic report of the month already in the books, only the inflation data are left before […]
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Date: June 4, 2018
Trump’s Foot in Tweet. Strong Jobs Report & Fed
If it’s the first Friday of the month, it’s the “all-important” jobs report. I opened Twitter to find the president tweeting about the still embargoed report and that was “looking forward to it”. Trump has many communication and information faux pas in his short tenure, but this one may be his biggest blunder. The President of the United States hinting at the content of market moving confidential information scheduled to be released is certainly precedent setting and idiotic. Anyway, as […]
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Date: June 1, 2018
Like an Elevator
Down big. Up big. It’s like riding the elevator at the Empire State Building. Italy’s banking system goes from being on the verge of collapse to all is hunky dory in 36 hours. The past few days looked a little bit like BREXIT almost two years ago. While I did not believe BREXIT was going to be a huge event at the time, I still think that Italy has the potential to be that sub prime mortgage canary in the […]
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Date: May 31, 2018
Italy Definitely Matters. Canary in the Coal Mine?
Stocks were “supposed” to rally on Friday ahead of the long weekend. While they did put in a good performance, they still ended in the red. That adds further weight on the short-term negativity of some of our models when stocks don’t behave as the odds say they should. This morning we woke up to more troubles in Italy. Anyone surprised by this hasn’t been paying attention. In my year-end report to clients as well as in my Fearless Forecast, […]
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Date: May 29, 2018
Double Reversal of the Reversal
On Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday we saw three separate reversals in the major stock market indices. First, there was a “key” downside reversal after a nice little rally, followed by back to back days of stock selling off early and closing strong. Long time market analyst, Walter Deemer, very aptly replied to one of my tweets that it’s not so much the reversal itself, but the action after those wilder, more emotional days. People love to cherry pick and and […]
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Date: May 25, 2018
