Pullback Remains But Transports…
The Dow and S&P 500 are still lagging the other major stock market indices in pullback mode, but contrary to what you may think, this remains a very healthy environment for stocks. In the strongest markets, the more “risk on” indices are the ones charging ahead. That’s the case now with the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100. The NYSE Advance/Decline Line which measures broad participation recently scored yet another all-time high and high yield bonds are hanging in […]
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Date: September 9, 2016
Still in a Pullback
Over the past few trading days, stocks gathered a little steam, but I still think the markets are in the midst of yet another pause or tiny pullback. It is amazing, however, that we have not seen a 1% in either direction since the post-BREXIT rally in early July. I have been saying nonstop that we saw historic strength coming out of the Y2K like BREXIT and that strength would not dissipate so quickly. Frankly, I thought we would have […]
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Date: September 7, 2016
What a Pullback Looks Like
Stocks have gone essentially nowhere for a month. Bulls, like myself, view this as a healthy period of digestion or consolidation before the next leg of the rally begins. Bears argue that stocks have peaked and they are headed much lower. As I have mentioned for months and months, I don’t think the bull is over or close to that point. There have been too many strong indications of more upside that typically do not occur as a bear market […]
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Date: September 1, 2016
Beneath the Surface
Listening to the media, you would think that absolutely nothing has gone on in the stock market this month. While it’s true that the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have gone nowhere, the other two major indices, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have seen some gains. Nothing to write home about, but the bulls should take it! Additionally, and very quietly, high yield (junk) bonds, perhaps my favorite canary in the coal mine broke out again on Monday, further […]
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Date: August 30, 2016
Stay Long & Strong
Similar to August 2nd when coiled up stocks broke to the downside and wiped out more than two weeks of gains, the S&P 500 did essentially the same thing on Wednesday. While it was only a .50% decline, the media turned it into a big deal; it’s not. Could stocks weaken more? Yes. Should we be concerned? No. I won’t be surprised if this pullback is the largest since the BREXIT bottom, but keep in mind that we haven’t even […]
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Date: August 25, 2016
Don’t Fall Asleep
Heading into the new week, we have more of the same. Stocks are trading in an historically tight range. The longer this continues, the greater the move when the range ends. As I always mention, many times you will see the market move out of one side of the range and fake out the masses and then immediately head to the other side of the range like stocks did on August 2. Very interestingly, smart money is gearing up for […]
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Date: August 22, 2016
Will the Island Top Kill the Bull???
It’s been a little longer in between updates as I was traveling in Florida for a board meeting as well as seeing some clients and visiting relatives. My 98 year old grandmother says “hello”. I feel like I need a break from eating after so many fantastic meals not to mention great conversation all around. Also, there really hasn’t been much to say. I like when the markets are calm and quiet when I am on the road. Makes life […]
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Date: August 18, 2016
Clown Parade Continues
On Twitter and www.investfortomorrowblog.com I have been fairly aggressive in calling out the so called “masters of the universe” in their widespread and uniform calls for a stock market collapse… for months. To me, it’s like a parade of clowns who have continued to lose credibility. Being early is the same as being wrong. And as I often like to say, it’s okay to be wrong, but it’s not okay to stay wrong. That’s coming from someone who has made […]
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Date: August 11, 2016
Is THIS the Week When the Sky Falls?
Roughly one month ago, after an historic lift off post BREXIT, stocks had become overbought which is a technical term for a little too far too fast. Most pundits in the media were calling for a pullback before they would buy. As I have discussed for longer than I have been writing this blog, the masses seldom get what they want or predict. When stocks bottom, the first rally is usually very powerful as it catches the majority off guard. […]
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Date: August 8, 2016
Hillary’s Impact on Stocks
Since the historic breadth thrust in stocks after the BREXIT, the market has certainly quieted down. I have written about the “coil” for two weeks and nothing has really changed. There is a big move coming sooner than later! I am keenly watching leadership for signs that a fresh leg higher towards Dow 20K has started. Turning to the presidential election hysteria, it’s certainly been anything but quiet! BRUTAL is the first word that comes to mind. My opinion regarding […]
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Date: August 4, 2016
Careful Getting too Negative
Last week, I wrote about stocks being “coiled” up and ready for a big move. I also warned that many times, we see a fake in the opposite direction of the trend that shakes weak investors out, only to see a reversal from there. Today, the major stock market indices are finally seeing the bout of weakness which has been forecast by the pundits for weeks. Remember, being early is also being wrong. For now, we are seeing stocks break […]
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Date: August 2, 2016
What’s SUPPOSED to Happen versus What ACTUALLY Happens
Earlier this week, I mentioned that stocks were coiled up and looking for a big move. Since then, only the NASDAQ 100 has done anything and that was really just on Apple’s earnings beat. Overall, it’s been a very quiet week without any volatility at all. That’s likely to change sooner than later, but unlikely to be today. As I have mentioned over and over, the post-BREXIT thrust, pullbacks are likely to be shallow as the masses were caught off […]
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Date: July 29, 2016
Not so Special, Special Fed Update
Let me begin this special FOMC update by saying that all three very short-term markets trends based on the Fed’s meeting ending today have lower probability of success this week although there may be a sign pointing to lower prices by the end of the week. Stay tuned. Without a crisis like 2008, Janet Yellen & Co. will find it tougher and tougher to discuss an interest rate hike during the heat of the political season. While the Fed is […]
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Date: July 27, 2016
Stocks Coiled Up for a Move
Good Monday Morning! If you looked for me on FOX Business last Friday, I wasn’t there as the attack in Germany meant more geopolitical news and less market discussion. My segment was rescheduled for 2:50 pm this Wednesday which is right after the Fed concludes their meeting and announces no change in interest rates. There’s not a whole lot new today to review. Stocks remain very overbought, but an awful lot of investors are looking for that pullback to buy. […]
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Date: July 25, 2016
FOX Business TODAY & Dow 20K
I am going to be on Fox Business’ The Intelligence Report with Trish Regan today (Friday) at 2:50 pm edt discussing my forecast for stocks and the markets, especially with the Fed set to meet next Tuesday & Wednesday. Trish is heading back from Cleveland so Ashley Webster is filling in. It has been truly amazing what a little rally has done to market sentiment. At the BREXIT bottom, as the pundits, masses and media all panicked and headed for […]
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Date: July 22, 2016
And NOW They Want to Buy?
Although fresh all-time highs are making headlines, making it seem like there’s a lot of action, the past week has been fairly quiet for stocks. On the surface, it looks like the first leg of the post-BREXIT rally has ended. However before you think about turning negative, I remain very positive on the intermediate and long-term. It’s the short-term that looks like a pullback or coin flip as sentiment has become a little too giddy and the pundits have all […]
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Date: July 21, 2016
Like a Broken Record
I read a stat last night that said only 1% of Americans hold off taking social security until 70. That low number really surprised me as it means 99% of Americans do not get the maximum amount of social security. When I meet with clients and prospects, one of the foundation conversations is when to take social security and why. If you are approaching retirement or already take social security, do yourself a favor and spend some time researching this! […]
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Date: July 12, 2016
On the Way to Dow 20K
With the short-term volatility over the past few weeks, this is no clear trend to take advantage of post today’s employment report. By that, I mean, our short-term trading system specifically created for this report has no strong edge. The report came in strong and pre-market indications are for a higher open which can sometimes point towards a short-term peak. With the much better than expected report, the recent market leaders may be under pressure. Utilities, staples, REITs, telecom and […]
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Date: July 8, 2016
Separating Pretenders from the Contenders
Greetings from 34,000 feet as I head to CO for the weekend with my wife and some friends. Of course, they’re all her friends because who would really want to hang out with me?!?! As is typical when I take a day or two off, Mother Nature thumbed her nose at me with a forecast of rain, rain and thunderstorms with highs in the low 60s and lows in the upper 30s. Thanks! We may have set a record for […]
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Date: July 1, 2016
Who Knew?!?!
Thanks to everyone who tuned in for my BREXIT segment on FOX61 in CT yesterday. You view it HERE. A few days post BREXIT and all seems well in the financial world. Listening to the business channels, everyone called the top and now everyone called the bottom. Isn’t revisionist history wonderful! Until proven wrong, I will keep referring to the Playbook I first outlined last Friday for a clue as to where stocks go from here. So far so good. […]
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Date: June 29, 2016
