Waiting for Warm & Fuzzy
The “traditional” Santa Claus Rally ended in the red for the stock market and that’s not a warm and fuzzy sign heading into 2015. Through the first 3+ days into 2015, small cap stocks are not leading their large cap brethren and that’s not a warm and fuzzy sign. Stocks sold off hard to begin the year and that hasn’t been a warm and fuzzy sign. Today, the bull are trying to make a stand after seeing yet another 5% […]
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Date: January 7, 2015
First “Key” Day of 2015
It’s only the second trading day of 2015, but I am going to get a little dramatic and say for the short-term, it’s somewhat of a key day. The second trading day of the year is seasonally a very strong one. Given the 1%+ down day to end 2014, there is a trend to see significant strength during the first week of the New Year to counter that unusual down day. Today is also the end of what many refer […]
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Date: January 5, 2015
Don’t Count the Bulls Out to Begin 2015
Welcome to 2015! Wishing you and your family a very Happy, Healthy, Safe and Peaceful New Year! Stocks finished 2014 with a whimper rather than a bang as the lack of liquidity allowed sellers to move prices sharply lower on Wednesday. The last two days of December have become somewhat of a headwind lately, but that weakness is supposed to be reversed next week. As bullish as I was over the past few weeks on the small cap Russell 2000, […]
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Date: January 1, 2015
Homestretch
This is it. Three more trading days and 2014 will be in the books as they say. Just 8 trading days ago, the bears were beating their chests yet again about how the bull market ended or the stock market was in 10%+ correction or a whole host of other nonsense. I wrote it right at the October bottom and I did the same thing 8 days ago; the bull market is old yet alive and weakness should be bought […]
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Date: December 28, 2014
Santa Ain’t Messin’ Around
The stock market bottom this week wasn’t as pessimism laden as the one in October, but it was certainly fun nonetheless! And just like I did in October, I gave readers a few days notice to prepare for the low. Frankly, this was easy. While it was a slightly soft seasonal time, the market sold off a few percent more than it should have which is part of the reason the rebound has been so robust. December is a haven […]
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Date: December 19, 2014
Santa Claus is Starting to Call… Right on Time
Over the past few weeks as stocks declined I remained firm in my forecast that Santa Claus would pay the markets a visit as he typically does in bull markets. One by one, I heard from people why this year was different, why stocks are already in a bear market, why oil would consume the market. I targeted this week and early next for the low as history suggests and for the rally to begin. Yesterday was also a very […]
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Date: December 18, 2014
Fed & Yellen on Hot Seat Today
The Federal Open Market Committee (Fed or FOMC) concludes their two day and final meeting of 2014 on Wednesday with their announcement at 2pm and subsequent press conference with Janet Yellen. Interest rates will not be raised. Market watchers will parse the statement to see if Yellen & Co. remove the “considerable time” phrase for low interest rates from the release, signaling that rates may increase sooner than later. Should those words continue in the statement, I would expect stocks […]
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Date: December 17, 2014
Santa Claus Rally Just Around Corner
Big picture. Late October through mid January is the strongest seasonal period to invest in stocks. That’s fact. Over a similar but slightly different period, the semiconductors are the strongest group to invest in. Just since the October bottom, they are up 27% and I am very glad we own them in our sector program. They made up for some crummy positions we have held during the same time. Early December shows some slightly negative seasonal headwinds, like we are […]
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Date: December 10, 2014
Feel is not Real
I have been playing golf for the better part of of 40+ years and I have taken my fair share of lessons. I can’t tell you how many times I have commented to my teacher that something “doesn’t feel right” or this “feels weird.” And each and every time the response has been the same; “feel is not real.” If you typically walk with a slight hunch, try walking really tall to understand what I mean. It feels funny, but […]
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Date: December 8, 2014
The Greatest Financial Experiment Ever
This article is a follow up to emails I received after my segment on CNBC’s Squawk Box last week regarding the unexpected news from Japan. Here is the link. Japan in Recession… Who Cares Japan has been in the news of late with the unexpectedly poor economic report indicating their economy has fallen back into recession. As I discussed last week on CNBC as well as Yahoo Finance, it really doesn’t matter at this stage. Japan has embarked on the […]
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Date: December 1, 2014
Holiday Tailwind then Headwind for Stocks
Historically, this is a quiet week for the markets with an upward bias. In other words, stocks usually drift higher without much fanfare. The market looks a little tired, but reaction may have to wait until after the country stuffs itself with food, football and fun. To begin the new week after the holiday, stocks usually experience a headwind where mild weakness is seen. Of course, since early 2012 most of the negatives suggested by history have been thrown out […]
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Date: November 25, 2014
Dow 20,000 and How We’ll Get There
My longstanding target of Dow 18,000 is now within a day or two reach if the bulls can muster the energy by Thanksgiving. If not, they may to wait until later in December. As you have read for several years, the bull market is old, but alive and should live on until enough people throw in the towel and stop predicting doom and gloom on every single digit pullback. If and when the Dow closes above 18,000 for a week, […]
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Date: November 21, 2014
Coal Mine Air Still Healthy… Says the Canaries
With stocks soaring to new highs over the past few weeks, it’s a very appropriate time to see how the canaries are faring and if any have died. Remember, the more “dead” canaries, the more likely the bull market will follow suit. This is very long-term analysis and not helpful for much other than end of bull market warnings. Let’s start with the Dow Industrials below and it’s great to see a clear and decisive all-time high right now, coming […]
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Date: November 17, 2014
Even My Bullish Forecast Wasn’t Bullish Enough
Three weeks ago as the stock market was being labeled as “in collapse”, I wrote about the bottom being formed and offered two scenarios for the market to follow. Of course, both scenarios were generally bullish, each ending at new highs, but the length of time varied. Below you can see that same chart updated with market action over the last three weeks. In short, the stock market responded even more bullishly than my very bullish forecast with all time […]
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Date: November 11, 2014
Dow Theory Trend Change… Again
Last week, I wrote an article explaining how traditional Dow Theory worked, at least the way I learned that it worked. In that piece, Dow Theory confirmed a trend change to the negative side. While describing what transpired to give this warning, I also wrote that my own projections for the Dow were to the 18,000 level and I would be surprised if stocks didn’t see all-time highs. After the Japanese caught the markets off guard with their own shock and […]
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Date: November 3, 2014
One Door Closes Another Opens
On Wednesday, to no one’s surprise, Janet Yellen & Co. ended the Fed’s 5+ year experiment of purchasing assets in the treasury and mortgage backed securities market, also known as quantitative easing (QE) or money printing. I won’t rehash all of the reasons why I continue to believe this is a misguided strategy, but it is. Before the ink was even dry on the statement, the Bank of Japan completely caught the markets off guard last night with another ramp […]
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Date: October 31, 2014
Dow Theory Trend Change
Dow Theory has been around for decades and it’s not something I discuss very often. You can Google it to find newsletters and blogs and opinions on its value. As the stock market gets closer and closer to the final bull market peak, I think it’s something we should watch. Dow Theory works in a couple of ways and I am going to focus on one piece here, primary trend change. Dow Theory Primary Trend Change occurs when BOTH the […]
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Date: October 30, 2014
Goldman Sachs’ Oil Forecasting Prowess
Goldman Sachs is a firm often in the limelight for hiring the best talent on Wall Street, winning the high profile deals, having close ties to the government and paying enormous compensation. It’s also a firm under intense scrutiny and often in the cross hairs. The last time I wrote specifically about one of their market calls was when they “curiously” downgraded the biotech sector in January 2014. You can read that piece here. http://investfortomorrowblog.com/archives/941 This week, Goldman cut their crude […]
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Date: October 28, 2014
Ending a Big Week
As I first laid out last week and then again on Monday, this week was expected to be a big one for the bulls. In real time, I wrote about the likelihood for a low that was then confirmed, making me very happy to have called it as it was happening. (In this business, you get to celebrate so little before the market turns on you!) The only question I had and still have is, “was that THE bottom or […]
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Date: October 24, 2014
Two Market Scenarios for the Quarter
In the last issue of Street$marts, I wrote about stocks being in a “murky” period for the next few weeks. I am going to pat myself on the back and say it has certainly looked “murky” since early October although I wish I had been more aggressive in taking action. The dark clouds have recently dissipated and the sun is starting to pop out. Once the decline began, it looked like the second half of October would see a low and that’s […]
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Date: October 21, 2014
