Rolling Over or Revving Up?
Last week, I wrote about how stocks were looking a bit tired and in need of a rest. Nothing has changed since that piece. The lagging blue chip indices like the Dow and S&P 500 reached higher while the leadership indices like the S&P 400 Mid Cap, Russell 2000 Small Cap and Nasdaq 100 have moved sideways. This is all healthy, routine and constructive behavior that should not lead to anything more than a trading pullback worst case scenario. Market […]
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Date: October 28, 2013
Stocks Growing Tired
With the major indices going vertical since October 9, I am starting to see some signs of tiring. “Tiring” is a lot different than forecasting a full fledged correction or even a deep pullback. It just means that the odds favor either some sideways action to help restart the engine or some sort of mild price decline to shake out the Johnny Come Latelys. During this rally, we saw the S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 hit all time […]
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Date: October 23, 2013
Idiocy in DC
I don’t even want to begin to count the hours wasted in DC on the shutdown and debt ceiling let alone what it did to innocent Americans, our economy and our focus as a nation. Yet our elected officials are celebrating like they won the World Series?!?! What an embarrassing mess. White House staffers were quoted as saying they were “winning”. Speaker Boehner said they “fought the good fight”. I am glad our elected officials in DC treated this debacle […]
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Date: October 17, 2013
Another Crossroad for Gold
I haven’t written about gold in a while, probably because it’s been so darn frustrating. And if you ask my thoughts on the metal, they will vary greatly depending on the time horizon. Long, long-term, I believe the secular bull market that began in 2001 is alive, but gold is curently in a cyclical bear market that began in mid 2011 and could last until we elect a new president in 2016 or it could end in short order. It’s […]
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Date: October 16, 2013
Boehner Listened… Kinda, Sorta
John Boehner didn’t call me (he should have) and I doubt he reads my comments (he should), but at least the republicans figured out that their tactics were not working. They may not have unilaterally raised the debt ceiling long-term, but if the reports are accurate, they are going to offer a short-term raise in exchange for negotiations with the democrats on a variety of fiscal issues. As you would imagine, the markets responded favorably although Europe led the way as […]
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Date: October 10, 2013
Never Looked Better
More than any TV segment this year, I thought this discussion was great in letting me comment on the major topic at hand, spell out my forecast and offer some comments on managing money. Also, although I may have looked a bit “stiff”, people say I never looked better! http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2730186363001/what-if-the-us-defaults/
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Date: October 9, 2013
The Administration Who Cried Wolf
With the exception of those directly affected and impacted by the government shutdown, it doesn’t seem like the public really cares. If it wasn’t constantly shoved down our throats by the media, I am not sure most people would even know. From the polls I have seen, the public is not in favor of closing the government as a strategy to forestall ObamaCare, but at the same time, they are also not in favor of ObamaCare itself. So conclude what you […]
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Date: October 4, 2013
Political Posturing Time
The government may be closed but the markets are open for business and apparently not too concerned about the shutdown. This week stocks are down less than 1% and trade as if a solution is not too far off. That’s not how I see it, but what do I know?!?! My thoughts were and remain that if we saw a shutdown for more than a day, it would be a lengthy one that would bleed into the debt ceiling deadline on […]
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Date: October 2, 2013
Oversold and Looking to Bounce
Stocks continue to feel the hangover from the post Fed no taper party as well as Larry Summers stepping aside. While the Russell 2000 Index of small caps briefly saw all time highs today, the other major indices remain in pull back mode. This all seems very healthy and routine and I would expect another leg higher in the bull market after this period of weakness ends over the coming 2-7 weeks. In the very short-term, stocks are oversold and are supposed […]
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Date: September 25, 2013
Dow Jones Shakes Up Industrial Average
Last week, Dow Jones, the keeper of the popular stock market indices Dow Jones Industrials, Transportation and Utilities, had a major shake up in their most widely watched Industrial Average. Being thrown out are Alcoa, Bank of America and Hewlett Packard. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs, Nike and Visa are coming on board. On the surface, this makes all the sense in the world as Alcoa has been a stodgy old aluminum company while B of A and Hewlett are […]
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Date: September 23, 2013
Bernanke’s Worry Lines & CNBC’s Closing Bell
I will on CNBC’s Closing Bell today, Friday, at 4:00pm discussing the lack of any taper from the Fed, what they see that the masses don’t and where the markets are ahead. Earlier this week in Street$marts (click on link to see) and on my blog, www.investfortomorrowblog.com I spelled out the three scenarios that could result from the Fed meeting. While I did not believe any taper was warranted, the market was expecting a token $10-$15 billion. When Bernanke & Company did nothing, risk […]
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Date: September 20, 2013
Taper Talk
Why does it seem like every single Fed meeting has become “the single most important FOMC meeting ever” in the media? And here we are again. The Fed begins a two day meeting tomorrow and it is widely expected that they will announce the first of many subsequent tapers at either this meeting or the one in November. The only surprise will be if they remove any kind of taper talk from their announcement or commentary. Although I do not agree with tapering […]
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Date: September 18, 2013
Adios Larry Summers
What a pleasant surprise when I walked in the door from my daughter’s softball game and saw that Larry Summers had withdrawn his name from consideration to succeed Ben Bernanke. It’s not a new topic here nor in my commentary in the media that I thought Summers was the wrong person at the wrong time for the job. The man doesn’t play well in the sandbox with others and stuck his feet in his mouth regarding women when he was president of Harvard. […]
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Date: September 16, 2013
Remembering 9-11
Today, we remember the horrific and cowardly events of September 11, 2001. I was not alive when JFK was assassinated or when Pearl Harbor was attacked, but those who were often speak about where they were or what they were doing at that moment. I remember sitting in my office watching CNBC. They had Breaking News that a plane flew into one of the towers at the World Trade Center. My first reaction was a skeptical one. I didn’t see any […]
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Date: September 11, 2013
Bull Market Run to Continue
Stocks have a done a good job over the past few weeks of shrugging off the events in Syria, the uncertainty at the Fed and the less than stellar economic news. It doesn’t “feel” like the two month consolidation is over and Dow 16,000 is right around the corner, but we will let the market tell us. I do continue to believe that more all time highs are ahead in the fourth quarter and into 2014. Here is my most […]
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Date: September 10, 2013
Fox Business’ Markets Now
I am going to be on Fox Business’ Markets Now on Monday August 26 at 1:00pm. The stock market began a small bounce last week and looks to continue that move this week. Yes, it’s the unofficial last week of summer although many schools have already started and many more begin on the 26th. Volume is typically light this week, but when a geopolitical event occurs like we saw in 2011, 2010, 2008 and 2007, volume will certainly spike. I […]
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Date: August 26, 2013
Big Correction Coming?
Stocks continue to trade very heavy, but we should be on guard for a strong bounce at any time here. I think the top is in for a while so bounces are now selling opps and a better buy point should be seen after Labor Day. To reiterate what I have said for a while, this pullback should not be the beginning of a new bear market, just another healthy cleanse in an aging bull market. Here is the segment […]
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Date: August 20, 2013
Bull Market to Live On
The stock market continued digesting gains seen from the June 24 to mid July rally. So far, the consolidation has been constructive with the Dow Jones Industrials being the weakest index of the majors. Over the very short-term, the major indices should see a bounce but not exceed the all time highs seen in July. It’s too early to tell whether this will end up being an intermediate-term decline lasting well into September or short lived. One clue will be […]
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Date: August 16, 2013
CNBC’s Squawk on the Street
I am scheduled to be on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street on Friday at 10:30am discussing Thursday’s market rout, how much lower it’s heading and how to invest in this suddenly volatile environment.
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Date: August 16, 2013
Canaries Still Breathing Okay
I haven’t done a canaries in the coal mine update in a while, but with the major market indices hitting fresh highs last week, it’s time to check if any are dead. Remember, canaries in the coal mine are only useful at bull market peaks and bear market troughs. In other words, they are very helpful at spotting beginnings and endings of bull markets, but not much in between. They are so important because they usually give ample warning that […]
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Date: August 13, 2013
