***Fed Update – Rates Going Up Today. More to Follow***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends were muted and today looks a lot like the August 1 meeting day. I drew arrows below so you can see what the S&P 500 looked like heading into […]
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Date: September 26, 2018
Can the Bears Make Any Move?
While the Dow declined almost 200 points on Monday the other indices were down much less with the NASDAQ 100 closing higher, a good sign for the bulls. Overall participation was poor and the defensive sectors were hit the hardest which was little bit of a head scratcher. As I mentioned yesterday, this week is the weakest week of the year on a seasonal basis. It is also another down Monday with an opportunity for an up Tuesday. I mention […]
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Date: September 25, 2018
Junk Hanging In While Pullback Begins
This post is going to be short as I am planning on writing my special Fed piece as well as a full Street$marts before I head to New York City tomorrow. Nothing new to report. I remain negative for the next few weeks or so as the window of opportunity for a mid to upper single digit pullback has opened. I have written about the split market and small warning from the NYSE A/D Line, however high yield bonds are […]
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Date: September 24, 2018
And FINALLY, the Dow Rings the Bell
Well folks, with the Dow Industrials finally scoring fresh all-time highs, we have every major stock market index plus all four key sectors seeing new highs since the bottom of the Q1 correction. My forecast is now complete. I can’t count how many times people told me that a new bear market started or this time I was going to fall flat on my face. Don’t get me wrong. I fall on my face plenty times. I just keep getting […]
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Date: September 21, 2018
Buy Yom Kippur But Participation is Waning
As the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur is here, so ends the seasonal trend of selling Rosh Hashanah and buying Yom Kippur. It worked out very well this year, if you did the exact opposite! Rosh Hashanah was the most recent little low and stocks quietly rallied right through to Yom Kippur. The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 have reasserted themselves while the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 have lagged, not exactly the healthiest backdrop. In sector land, banks […]
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Date: September 18, 2018
Hindenburg, Titanic, OH MY!
As I did my usual weekend research and overview I am even more convinced that there is valid reason to have some short-term concern. By short-term, I am looking at the next three to five weeks and nothing more than a single digit pullback, worst case. Lots of little things have ans continue to pop up to go along with the negative seasonal headwind this time of year. However, the real and nasty bearishness of September has been muted by […]
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Date: September 17, 2018
Gold a Bit Perplexing. Stocks Due for Pullback
Let’s start with gold. A few weeks ago, I wrote a longer article in Street$marts about a major low in gold forming. It’s USUALLY not that difficult to spot. However, this time, gold and the gold stocks have been diverging with the metal holding the bottom while the stocks made new lows. See the charts below. I can tell you that it’s been a bit perplexing, but not unprecedented. And although I have been long-term bullish on the dollar since […]
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Date: September 14, 2018
Becoming a Little Concerned
Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur. The age old stock market adage for this time of year. I can tell you that no one was discussing that at synagogue over the past two days. As you can imagine, it was AAT, all about Trump, the good, the bad, the ugly and the otherwise. Normally, as you know, I would insert myself right into the conversation. However, given the holiday and toxic nature of politics right now, why bother. Everyone has […]
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Date: September 12, 2018
Role Reversal
The NASDAQ 100 and by default, the technology sector has led the markets all year. That’s certainly no secret. Value stocks have lagged not only this year, but every year since the bull market began. In fact, they are about as cheap relative to growth as they have ever been. This week, there has been somewhat of a reversal of fortunes as the tech-laden NASDAQ 100 has come under strong selling pressure while value stocks have held their own. Does […]
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Date: September 6, 2018
The Misunderstood Bearishness of September. The Real Facts
I cannot believe that September is here. That was the fastest August ever! With the turn of the calendar, the stock market now enters what has historically been the worst month if you look back 100 years. Of course, none of us have been investing that long and as we all know, markets can and do morph. In other words, over time, markets are at least efficient enough to arbitrage away most known calendar effects. Sometimes, the trend starts early, […]
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Date: September 4, 2018
Growth/Value Back to Dotcom Bubble Peak
Under the large umbrella of the U.S. stock market, there are indices, sectors, market capitalizations and style boxes. For example, the five major stock indices are the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100. Sure, you can argue that the NASDAQ belongs instead of the 100. We also have large cap, mid and small cap along with growth stocks and value stocks. I often write about different kinds of leadership in good times and bad […]
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Date: August 31, 2018
Record Highs in Stocks, Record Economic Output, Record Corporate Profits
And the beat goes on. I know stocks must be close to a pause because one of my market buddies asked me if stocks will ever go down again. Of course, he was kidding, but he and I ask each other idiotic questions from time to time during very strong trends. Stocks remain strong. That’s inarguable. Index leadership is excellent. Same for sector leadership. Sure, the banks could step up a little more and they probably will when bond yields […]
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Date: August 29, 2018
Beware of the Rally. “EVERYONE” is in The Hamptons
Early indications are for more new highs in the stock market today as the S&P 500, S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 look to see blue skies when stocks open. This comes as no surprise since I have been writing about new highs coming all along, but especially after the Q1 correction which is now a distant memory. I still expect the Dow Industrials to join the part in all-time high territory before long. When I look at the […]
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Date: August 27, 2018
Lots of New Highs as the Grinding Continues
After some fresh all-time highs in the S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000, stocks have been resting although the path of least resistance is higher, more in grinding fashion than explosive. Index leadership is good. Sector leadership isn’t bad. Junk bonds have defied my forecast that they saw their bull market peak 8 months ago and powered ahead to score a fresh, all-time high. Score another positive for the bulls. The all-important NYSE A/D Line continues to make new, […]
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Date: August 24, 2018
Manafort, Cohen Guilty but Reality over Rhetoric
On Tuesday the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 hit fresh all-time highs although without strong conviction. The three indices are not far behind although the Dow may take a little longer. All is good on that front. Banks are perking up and as I mentioned the other day, the semis look to have bottomed. Discretionary hit an all time high as did the transports in somewhat of a quiet surprise. All is good on the sector front for the most […]
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Date: August 22, 2018
Dollar Still King, Gold Garbage and Stocks Moving
What a change with the Dow Jones Industrials leading stocks higher. It felt like yesterday that Turkey was going down and about to take the whole world with her. Turkey remains an issue as does the emerging markets complex or at least those countries which have borrowed too much money denominated in dollars. With the dollar’s recent resurgence those debts are more expensive to pay when your own local currency declines. Anyway, that’s a big picture problem that’s only going […]
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Date: August 20, 2018
Turkey Burgers, US Dollar & Gold
Turkey this, Erdogan that. I would bet that the vast majority of Americans have absolutely no idea where Turkey is on a map. But, that country is in almost every financial story this week. Seeing the name so much subliminally made me order a turkey burger for lunch today! While stocks are beginning the day much lower, I think the news about a Chinese economic slowdown may be more important. In any case, as we know, stocks can never just […]
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Date: August 15, 2018
All Eyes on Turkey. LOL
The bulls had their wings clipped on Friday, making it three straight down days for stocks although the bears haven’t made much progress just yet. The macro concern right now is the collapse in the Turkish Lira. Similar to Greece and Cyprus, Turkey by itself has the economic output of Connecticut and the world really doesn’t care what some crazy dictator does to his country, per se. However, any time there is a crisis in the emerging markets complex, two […]
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Date: August 13, 2018
Sell Facebook. Bull Market Peak Likely In
After writing about beloved tech giant, Apple, for so long, I thought I would keep it going and turn to another overly owned and loved FAANG stock, Facebook. As you know Facebook has had its share of triumphs, trials and tribulations since its infamous 2012 IPO, but mostly troubles this year with the personal information collection scandal at Cambridge Analytica. For those who invested in Facebook at the opening price in 2012, you endured incredible pain as the stock plummeted […]
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Date: August 8, 2018
Bull Markets Do NOT End Like This
Quick update as I am trying to get a full Street$marts out today or tomorrow. The theme remains the almost same. I thought a modest pullback would materialize and take the major indices below last week’s low. However, as I mentioned on Friday, the bulls put in a strong performance, like the Red Sox did over my Yankees, and took control from the bears on Thursday. That strength continues today with the S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 leading with the […]
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Date: August 7, 2018
