Beware of October in Years Ending in “7”
While I often write about seasonality, in the grand scheme of things, it’s really only a slight head or tailwind. For those who do not know what seasonality is, it is using a period of time in history to see what trends have occurred the majority of the time. For instance, Sell in May and Go Away, is a seasonal trend for stocks to be weaker from May through October and stronger the rest of the year. The day before […]
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Date: October 2, 2017
Signs Point Higher this Week
After a solid end to September and Q3, stocks open the new day, week, month and quarter flirting with all-time highs. Of the major indices, only the NASDAQ 100 isn’t there, but I expect to see that achievement this week. When I think of October, Reggie Jackson’s three home run game in 1977 comes to mind along with Halloween, fall foliage and stock market crashes. As I already wrote about, while October is known for huge market swings, 2017 is […]
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Date: October 2, 2017
The Legend of October
A month ago, I wrote an article debunking the theory that September was always a poor month for the stock market. You can re-read it HERE. Essentially, September’s ire was very much dependent on how price came into the month. While the average return since 1928 has been -1.1%, coming into September 2017, price action suggested an up month with an average price of +0.50%. As I write this, the S&P 500 is ahead by 1.5% on the final day of […]
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Date: October 2, 2017
Stocks on Solid Footing Heading into Q4
Since late July, my overall theme has been one of pause to refresh with a mild pullback as the five major stock market indices were certainly not all in gear to the upside. Two months later, with the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 recently surging, they are all getting closer together. That behavior comes at the expense of the NASDAQ 100 peaking earlier this month and moving sideways for the others to catch up. I fully expect November and December […]
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Date: September 29, 2017
Trump, Merkel & Tech
Stocks begin the week with a mixed bag of news. President Trump made for a rough weekend with his comments regarding the NFL and player protests as well as saber rattling with North Korea. In Europe, Angela Merkel’s party won the election for the fourth time and she is the presumptive Chancellor yet again. For two years, I have been calling the German election the single biggest geopolitical event since the Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1999, officially creating the […]
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Date: September 25, 2017
***Special Fed Day Alert. No Rate Hike But Changes to Balances Sheet Announced***
Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Seven meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement day which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, as with most statement […]
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Date: September 20, 2017
Semis Breaking Out But Some Concern Out There
Stocks begin the new week on decent footing yet I remain of the belief that strength is a better selling opportunity than a buying one for now. While the underpinnings are not suggestive of recession, bear market nor 10%+ stock market correction, I continue to see evidence that a mid single digit pullback may be in the cards over the next 6 weeks. It’s also the single weakest of the year based on history. This one single week performs more […]
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Date: September 18, 2017
Semis Strong, Shouldering the Burden. Other Sectors Stepping Up.
The stock market continues to quietly drift higher, at least on the surface. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have seen new highs this week while the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 look constructive but still well below their peaks. I do expect them to play catch up and see blue skies before any meaningful downside is seen. I wrote about the banks earlier this week as being a concern. Discretionary is a bit stronger but also not firing […]
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Date: September 15, 2017
Banks Warning, Hold Key to Bull Market
Since late July I have been in the camp looking for a trading range with a mild/modest pullback. I remain of that opinion today. Should stocks gather themselves and score fresh new highs this month, I think it will be a good opportunity for the nimble to sell for a modest move lower into October. All along, I have written about a mid single digit pullback and that’s still my target. I do not believe we will see a 10%+ […]
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Date: September 12, 2017
Remembering 9-11
September 11th seems to sneak up on me each year. With summer vacation, kids going back to school, Labor Day and the start of the NFL season, it feels like I wake up and realize 9-11 is either the next day or very close by. We all remember where we were and what we did on September 11th, 2001. I was sitting in my office and saw the World Trade Center on TV with the media reporting that a plane […]
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Date: September 11, 2017
The Misconception About September’s Ire
Academics and the media do a pretty good job of warning the investing public of September’s historically poor performance. In fact, many investors become alarmed each year as August comes to an end and the various dire studies are paraded around. After all, since 1928, September is by far the worst month of the year with an average return of -1.1%. 39 have been up while 49 have been down. The other 11 months are basically flat or up with […]
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Date: September 7, 2017
Small Caps, Semis & Junk Leading. Banks Looking Sick
Stocks ended last week on firm footing as the bounce saw four nice days. With more North Korea tensions in the air, it will be interesting to see if the stock market finally cares or just uses this as an excuse to open mildly lower. Very quietly as I have mentioned before, the Russell 2000 has been leading the major indices. That does have bullish implications if it holds on. Additionally, the semis which have been the only key sector […]
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Date: September 5, 2017
Crosscurrents Abound. Enough for Bulls & Bears
Stocks continue the bounce they began two weeks ago and the same one I have been discussing. Tuesday was the day where the acceleration started. That could be slowing today. The NASDAQ 100 sits an all-time high but it’s lonely up there. The Dow and S&P 500 are within striking distance but the ever improving S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are not close. With the monthly jobs report out this morning, any strength will create a little short-term headwind for […]
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Date: September 1, 2017
Q2 GDP Baby. Stocks Like It!
This morning, the government reported that the “second look” at Q2 GDP grew by 3%, higher than the original 2.6% first reported. 3% is even higher than any of my most bullish models and it continues to show that the US economy is re-accelerating higher this year.I would love to hear from all those people who challenged my bullish view of the economy or called me out Twitter. They kept telling me that 3% was a pipe dream. My theme […]
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Date: August 30, 2017
Insurance Sector Around Disasters
If any sub-sector should be impacted by disasters, you would think it would be the insurance group. Similar to what I did above, let’s look at how the Dow Jones Insurance Index behaved around the events. Sandy is first and you can see that it was already pulling back when Sandy hit and continued to weaken for two more weeks before blasting off to the upside. This was basically in line with how the stock market did although a little […]
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Date: August 28, 2017
Stock Market Behavior Around Other Disasters
With Hurricane Harvey and the associated historic, catastrophic flooding the area is experiencing and the country is watching in real time, it got me thinking about how the stock market (S&P 500) and insurance stocks fared during previous disasters. I decided to leave energy out because there haven’t been many hurricanes that directly impacted oil and gas. I did not include the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the gulf. Let’s start with the S&P 500 during Superstorm Sandy, Katrina, the Northridge […]
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Date: August 28, 2017
Bounce to Continue. Yellen, Draghi & Harvey
We have several crosscurrents to end the week. Before I get to them, while I believe that stocks remain in pullback mode, I do not think that the bounce I wrote about on Tuesday is over just yet. There should be some more upside left. I am slightly encouraged by the very short-term strength in the Russell 2000 although it is about to test the underside of its long-term trend, also known as the 200 day moving average. That could […]
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Date: August 25, 2017
Oil and Energy Diverging
It seems like the energy sector debacle has received very little attention among the mainstream media this year. Even the financial media don’t really care. I am guessing that’s because crude oil has somewhat bucked the bearish trend the stocks have been on as you can see below. Oil has been very volatile and mildly lower. The stocks have been downright ugly. This has been an unusually long period of behavior like this. In the past, the stocks have usually […]
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Date: August 24, 2017
Bounce Coming But Pullback Still Secure
While the short-term pullback continues, stocks are seesawing back and forth and are “supposed” to bounce here. For the past two trading days, the bears were unable to follow through from Thursday’s decline and fought the bulls to a draw. Unless we are looking at something bigger on the downside than I expect, we should see the bulls step up in a small way. It will be interesting and perhaps telling to see which of the major indices lead and […]
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Date: August 22, 2017
As Expected, Pullback Continues
All month I have been writing about a short-term pullback for stocks. Nothing huge. Just your garden variety 3-5% bout of weakness which could overshoot. This coming from someone who has been bullish all year on stocks. I won’t reanalyze what I have already written several times, but here are a few reasons. The Dow Industrials were off on their own island of strength while the mid and small caps were in decline. Dow Transports were even weaker. Sentiment surveys […]
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Date: August 18, 2017
