Economy Sees Recession During the Next Four Years
The Friday before the election, our quantitative election model forecasted that Donald Trump was going to be the 45th President of the United States. I didn’t believe it myself, yet I didn’t question whether the model was broken. After all, it’s accuracy rate has been higher than 80%, correcting predicting every election since 1996. After a barrage of media interviews where some questioned whether I was just a shill for Mr. Trump, the election came and he was in fact […]
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Date: January 31, 2017
Top 8 Shocking Surprises Plus 2 Bonuses Under Donald Trump
The Friday before the election, our quantitative election model forecasted that Donald Trump was going to be the 45th President of the United States. I didn’t believe it myself, yet I didn’t question whether the model was broken. After all, it’s accuracy rate has been higher than 80%, correcting predicting every election since 1996. After a barrage of media interviews where some questioned whether I was just a shill for Mr. Trump, the election came and he was in fact […]
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Date: January 31, 2017
Dow 20,000 Already Forgotten
Last week, the Dow hit my longstanding target of 20,000, first given on CNBC’s Squawk Box in 2010 just after I forecast that the Fed’s balance sheet would hit a staggering $5 trillion. If we see 5 consecutive closes above 20,000, the next upside target will be created. Since Dow 20K, it’s been even more Donald Trump and politics on the financial channels. I think the Q4 GDP report is now totally forgotten. Market sentiment had become a little frothy […]
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Date: January 30, 2017
Dow Breaking Out & Q4 GDP Miss the Last
After hitting yet another one of my upside targets, 20,000, the Dow has yet to pause. Five straight closes above 20,000 will open up new upside targets before the bull market ends. As you can see below, the Dow has been consolidating sideways since early December. That’s often referred to as a flat top or box. When prices finally exceed the flat top, they oftentimes see a spurt in the same direction. Although momentum is on the side of the […]
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Date: January 27, 2017
Bulls Wake Up and Attack
No sooner did the ink dry on Monday’s piece than the market quickly tossed aside my thinking for a bit more of a pullback before racing to new highs. Since December 13, four out five of the major stock market indices have been digesting post-election gains and pulling back in a very orderly fashion. Only the NASDAQ 100 has really moved meaningfully higher. After a morning of selling on Monday, the bull pushed stocks higher into the close. On Tuesday, […]
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Date: January 25, 2017
“Buy the Election, Sell the Inauguration”
That’s been a popular refrain over the past week as stocks continue in stall mode, basically since December 13. In fact, the Dow and Russell 2000 are now down on the new year. Only the NASDAQ 100 which I thought would go from laggard to leader has had the power to forge ahead in 2017. However, that index is now looking a bit tired and in need of a little rest which won’t be so bad. For most of the […]
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Date: January 23, 2017
Bulls & Bears Even But Opex Tilts Down
Bulls and bears come into the new week on equal footing, both still fighting it out in the trading range. The bulls have done nothing wrong to indicate anything more than a 3-5% pullback and the bears will have a lot to prove at that point. Since early December, the small cap Russell 2000 has lagged and the bulls are getting to that point where it’s time to step up. Clearly, the unpopular NASDAQ 100 has been the leadership index. […]
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Date: January 17, 2017
Bears Need to Act Quickly, But Bulls Won’t Make It Easy
After Thursday’s morning sell off the bears finally had something to latch on to. All they needed was to stave off any bull attempt to rally into the close so the bears could try and follow through on Friday morning. However, as pundits called for more weakness, stocks rallied all afternoon and into the close. Unless the bears can make some serious noise on Friday and undercut Thursday’s low, it looks like Dow 20,000 will be tested over the coming […]
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Date: January 13, 2017
Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2017
It’s amazing how powerful the turn of the calendar can be. New Year’s resolutions dominate the landscape with all of the weight loss programs and workout products at the top of the list. I’ve never been a huge “resolution” person, probably since there’s just too much I need to change and it’s a little overwhelming! But each year, I may pick one single project or thing that needs to get done and is manageable. Last year, my goal was to […]
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Date: January 10, 2017
Dow 20,000 on Hold for Now
On Friday the Dow Jones Industrials failed to touch the vaunted 20,000 level, missing by less than a single point. It’s been interesting to watch the media fall over themselves, cheering, pushing and encouraging the Dow to touch 20,000. Frankly, it’s kind of embarrassing. What’s worse has been the pundits who actually believe Dow 20,000 actually means anything. It’s just a number although I guess eclipsing milestone levels does add to the euphoria. For me, it’s been a target I […]
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Date: January 9, 2017
Santa Came a Callin’ But Who Cares…
The Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has officially ended with the bulls winning by almost 1/2%. That’s supposed to portend positive things for the year ahead. However, as with most Wall Street adages and assumptions, it just stand up to scrutiny when doing the research. First, let’s remember that during most long-term periods, stocks rise at least 2 out of every 3 years, so a permanent kind of tailwind to support the bulls. As I started to update the stats on […]
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Date: January 6, 2017
Santa Came a Callin’ & Dow 20K Up Next
While the point totals so far have been more impressive on Tuesday, the market action on Wednesday is more constructive and healthier. We had a quieter opening without emotion. The Russell 2000 and S& P 400 are leading, which runs counter to the trend I pointed out yesterday. The NYSE Advance/Decline Line is much stronger today. Commodities are bouncing back. I was hard pressed to find any sector that behaved well on Tuesday, but the vast majority are today. I […]
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Date: January 4, 2017
Bulls Rockin’ to Start 2017
It looks like the bulls are refreshed and ready to go into 2017 with the bears perhaps still nursing a hangover. Early indications show the Dow Industrials up roughly 150 points this morning which would put them within striking distance of 20,000 this week. I have seen a number of very short-term studies over the weekend which all point to higher prices today and possibly tomorrow based off the weak close to 2017 within the context of a higher December. […]
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Date: January 3, 2017
Well, Well, Well Mr. Bear
Wednesday was definitely an interesting day as opening strength was immediately sold and built upon throughout the day. That behavior is not only out of character for the post-election rally, it certainly is as well for the final few days with prices so extended. Market internals were pretty much as expected for a day like that and the Dow held up much better than the other major indices. Except for gold, sector weakness was across the board. Treasuries got a […]
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Date: December 28, 2016
Dancing Sugar Plums & Dow 20K
Two days into the Santa Claus Rally and the Dow is up a whopping 26 points. While that doesn’t seem like anything, it’s fairly typical of the final five trading days of the year which often see a mild drift higher before sellers sometimes come in on the final day. Tuesday saw the bulls come right back to work early in the day with thoughts of sugar plums and Dow 20,000 dancing in the heads. Stock market internals were certainly […]
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Date: December 27, 2016
Reagan’s Stock Market Analog Dies
Last month, I offered a price analog to the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan. There were many similarities between 1980 and 2016 as you can see below, including the big correction early in the year and the post-election market celebration. That all ended by Thanksgiving as the 1980 pattern gave back 100% of the rally while the 2016 pattern kept powering ahead. In the next issue, we will take a look at the other analog from 1991 and 1992 to […]
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Date: December 27, 2016
Will Santa Claus Call to Broad & Wall?
Yale Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac fame (and a perennial must own book now written by his son Jeff) coined the phrase, “If Santa Claus fails to call, bears may come to Broad & Wall”. Research showed that if the last five trading days of the year and first two trading days of the New Year (Santa Claus rally) did not show a positive return, a bear market or significant correction was likely during the coming year. Bears love to […]
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Date: December 23, 2016
Top Financial Tips to Year-End
This year-end is a very unusual one. Not only will the presidency be changing in early 2017, but Congress will now join the party in power for the first time since the 2008 election and 111th Congress. That means for the most part, any legislation that passes Congress will likely be signed into law by the president. Before you dismiss this as a political post, read on. Because Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, has been in power for several […]
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Date: December 21, 2016
Stocks Tired But No Reason to Sell Just Yet
Stocks are now in one of the most seasonally strong times of year within one of the most seasonally strong times of year. The big question is whether the market has used up most of the available fuel and needs a break first. Certainly, the last few days have seen a mild pullback. It looks like the bears have a tiny bit of work left to do on the downside. However, those looking for any significant price damage during the […]
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Date: December 19, 2016
Fed to Hike Rates But All Not Well
Model for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Two meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, the upside edge is just outside […]
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Date: December 14, 2016
