The Most Unanticipated FOMC Meeting
The Most Unanticipated FOMC Meeting Today is one of the most unanticipated Fed statement days in recent memory. How will we ever survive without hearing that “today is the most important Fed day ever”? I say that because absolutely nothing is really expected today. Chairman Jay Powell did his 170 degree turn earlier this year and the Fed is now on a new course. Okay. Maybe, I am exaggerating a little bit. Perhaps, we will hear about their plans to […]
Read More
Date: March 20, 2019
Strong Sector Leadership. Seasonal Headwind This Week.
As I wrote about last week, stocks ended their deepest and longest pullback since the Christmas bottom. And that was all of 3% and 5 days. Not much for the bears to hang their hopes on. I also commented that I wanted to see which sectors led out of that pullback since it was unlikely that the rising tide would continue to lift all ships. Since the March 8th low, the bulls should be proud that it’s been a “risk […]
Read More
Date: March 18, 2019
If At First You Don’t Succeed…
On Wednesday, the bulls tried to break stocks above what pundits are calling the “key” line in the sand. This was the fourth such attempt in the past three weeks. As I mentioned before the first try almost always fails and the second is usually a little more emotional. After that, one of the attempts usually sticks. You can see this on the chart below. Today, is that fourth attempt and we will see where the bulls end up. Given […]
Read More
Date: March 15, 2019
Once Again, the Bears Get Left Behind, Waiting, Hoping & Praying
Greetings from LA! Hopefully, this is the final day of a long, three city trip. I always debate compressing my trips into fewer ones so I can get a lot accomplished with less flying. In today’s case, this massive winter storm will likely result in my flight being canceled to Denver. So, my fingers and toes are crossed that I can get back to CT tonight and not have to deal with the masses tomorrow. Last Friday, I wrote about […]
Read More
Date: March 13, 2019
ECB & Feb Jobs Report Says NO to Fed
Greetings from 36,000 feet as I am heading from Florida to LA. There were two major non-financial market news items from last week which I think warrant serious attention. The first was the European Central Bank (ECB) which downgraded their view of the European economy from 1.7% growth to 1.1% growth. That may not seem like “stop the presses” news, but with growth teetering around 1%, the ECB has to be very concerned about recession across Europe and not just […]
Read More
Date: March 11, 2019
The Pullback to Buy is Here. But the Pundits Will Worry.
The pause to mild pullback eliminated the pause as the bears sunk their teeth into the markets a little deeper on Thursday. The March 4 peak and reversal day I referenced a few days ago now has a bit more significance although indices saw their highs on February 25. I am traveling so I won’t get to pay enough attention to the chatter, but I am guessing there will be some focus on the S&P 500 falling back to its […]
Read More
Date: March 8, 2019
Buy Weakness Until Proven Otherwise
Stocks are continuing the recent pause or mild pullback. Monday’s action saw the indices reverse to the downside and now we’re watching to see if the market can close below Monday’s lowest level to signal further downside. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have exhibited the best relative strength with the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 much weaker this week. On the downside, I wouldn’t expect more than a few percent with the Dow likely to find a little […]
Read More
Date: March 6, 2019
Pullback Over? GDP Report a WOWZA
All week stocks have been in pullback mode but it sure doesn’t feel like it. What is the S&P 500 down from its intra-day peak? Not even 1%. Overnight trading suggests a test of 2019 highs. Again, when the masses have been sitting in so much cash all year, waiting for stocks to go down 5%, 10% and 15%, it provides a strong cushion against such a decline. The slightest bit of weakness continues to be bought, until it isn’t. […]
Read More
Date: March 1, 2019
A Pullback? What’s That??
After a nearly vertical rise in stock prices since the Christmas bottom, the market seems to have put in a short-term peak on Monday. There is nothing to suggest that this will be anything more than a routine, normal and healthy pullback which could be a few days and a few percent or a longer period of sideways action. On Monday, all five major stock market indices hit recovery highs and new highs for 2019. On Monday, all four key […]
Read More
Date: February 27, 2019
Running Out of Descriptions
The epic rally from the Christmas bottom continues unabated. leaving more than a few people scratching their heads. The rally just isn’t conforming to historical norms and all those people waiting on the sidelines have been left behind, completely and utterly embarrassed. Actually, most of those people just keep digging their heels in to hate and disavow the rally. I can’t even count how many of those fast money guys and gals look like bigger clowns than they already are. […]
Read More
Date: February 25, 2019
VIX Says Full Steam Ahead for Bulls
While stocks “paused” on Thursday, it’s something you can hardly see on a chart. Since the Christmas low, all the market has given back has been one to two days here and there. Remember, in the strongest of trends, a two day pullback is really all you get until the first real trading range sets in to frustrate bull and bear alike. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 followed by the Volatility Index or VIX. As you know, […]
Read More
Date: February 22, 2019
Yet Another Sign of Confirmation
The chart below is one I first learned about from my good friend, Tom McClellan. Tom and I have known each other for 25 years and I always enjoy our email threads regarding research. Below you can see the the S&P 500 in the top chart and one of Tom’s indicators in the bottom which is called the McClellan Summation Index. How it is created doesn’t matter, only that it’s a measure of thrust and participation in rallies and declines. […]
Read More
Date: February 21, 2019
Just Keeps Powering Ahead
By now there should have been some pullback, any pullback. But no, the stock market continues to defy the odds. Sure, there have been a few small pauses, but nothing close to even a 2% decline. All the way up, naysayer after naysayer just keeps disavowing and hating the rally. I do love how many people continue to revise history and say that they called the bottom and the magnitude of this rally. In my next life, I am coming […]
Read More
Date: February 20, 2019
No Cigar for the Bears
I had thought by now that stocks would have paused or taken a little 1-2% mild pullback. There was evidence last week. There was evidence over the past two days. So far, no cigar for the bears. This is very much typical behavior when the stock market emerges from a major bottom as we saw at Christmas. They just don’t give you a chance to comfortably buy after the train leaves the station. Any and all pauses and pullbacks are […]
Read More
Date: February 15, 2019
After a Brief Pause or Pullback, All System Go Again
The stock market continues to do very little wrong. Since the Christmas bottom it’s been almost a mirror image of the relentless selling wave I mentioned so often for two months. In fact, as I wrote this, the stock market has just recovered 100% of the losses from that final, nasty sell off. Recall that the almost unprecedented wave was where stocks closed lower than where they opened for 10 straight days, likely not seen since the 1930s. Additionally, stocks […]
Read More
Date: February 14, 2019
Range Bound for Now But Bulls Should Test Higher Early This Week
Stocks still have done nothing wrong since the rally began in December. Since the peak last week, they have been quietly digesting massive gains by mildly pulling back. For all major indices, the stock market should be range bound for a bit, bound by last week’s high and perhaps a few percent lower. If and when last week’s highs are exceeded, the widely watched average price of the last 200 days should provide a short-term ceiling. Coming in to the […]
Read More
Date: February 11, 2019
Stocks A Bit Tired But Not Sick At All
The rally off of the historic Christmas low has been nothing short of amazing. It’s only now that folks are realizing its magnitude and power. Stocks still have not done anything wrong, but are certainly a little tired. I will have more on my upcoming issue, state of the market, either later today or tomorrow. Stock index leadership has healthily rotated during the rally and now we have the NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 leading. That’s a good thing. Semis […]
Read More
Date: February 5, 2019
MONSTER Jobs Report, BUT…
As I sat down to craft today’s piece just after the January jobs report was released, I found myself sidetracking from the short-term reaction to the report to a sort of state of the markets if you will. So, I went with it, writing for several hours on where stocks stand today. I will publish that early next week. Today, I was shocked when I heard that the economy created more than 300,000 new jobs in January, almost double what […]
Read More
Date: February 1, 2019
Markets Not Waiting on Fed Statement Today
Powell Turns 180 Degrees and Loses Credibility Fed statement day is here once again. Yippee! Chair Jay Powell did something I don’t think I have seen in 30 years in the business. He did an almost 180 degree turn in just three weeks after raising rates and forging full steam ahead with more asset sales on December 19. When the markets, both stock and credit, accelerated to the downside, Powell eventually walked back his very hawkish stance to try and […]
Read More
Date: January 30, 2019
The “Easy” Trade in Apple
On January 3 Tim Cook shocked the investment by pre-announcing earnings problems and slowing iPhone sales. Fundamental analysis is above my pay grade so I am not going to go any further. It was shocking because I couldn’t find any other pre-announcement since 2002. There may have been one, but it wasn’t easily found. The stock had already collapsed from $233 to $147 before the warning. That magnitude, 37%, is not what you normally see even during a 20% decline […]
Read More
Date: January 30, 2019
