Bulls Working on Three Straight
Bulls Working on Three Straight On Sunday, I discussed the tiniest of green shoots and the scenario for stock market low on Monday followed by a rally. As I said at the time and since, I think it is “A” low, but perhaps not “THE” low. It is certainly a start and I am glad that the market responded to what was diminishing downside acceleration. It looks like those geniuses in Congress will finally pass a massive $2 trillion stimulus […]
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Date: March 26, 2020
Not “THE” Bottom – 2008 Not a Good Guide
Well Tuesday was fun! At least for the bulls. Monday pretty much bottomed on schedule and we saw unprecedented and massive buying off the lows. It was really across the board with some eye popping numbers, like 93% of the shares traded went into stocks going up on the day. They were more than 2500 net issues trading higher than lower which is more than 10:1. In a vacuum some people would say that these are new bull market initiating […]
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Date: March 25, 2020
TRUE Shock and Awe – We Need MORE from the Government
Target.com Before I launch into another one of my “brief” updates, I want to share something good that can help everyone. While there has been major hoarding of paper towels, toilet paper and sanitizing products at the stores, I understand that supply chains are stocked and will continue to deliver to stores. Once people have their fill of toilet paper, it’s unlikely they will need more anytime soon. I just don’t get this. Why toilet paper? Why bottled water when […]
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Date: March 24, 2020
The Tiniest of Green Shoots – Monday Not Looking Pretty
I want to begin by hoping everyone is staying safe and taking the necessary precautions when venturing out. I spent part of my work weekend mapping out a series of updates and then writing content. As you all know, I am not known for brevity so I thought it would be more beneficial to create a series rather than one very long newsletter. After this piece, I have a short one with some financial planning tips and a big picture […]
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Date: March 22, 2020
Looking for a Green Shoot Within a Week
Stocks have not been up on back to back days since the market peaked one month ago. As I mentioned the other day, we have seen 6 independent days of widespread panic as you can see in the chart below. The very first sign of even a tradable rally will likely occur when we finally see stocks able to rally for two straight days. That opportunity should come next week at some point. Once we see some sort of low […]
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Date: March 20, 2020
More Panic in the Air. Looking for Back to Back Rally Days.
I was hoping to post a number of indicators showing historic levels of bearishness and oversold readings in the stock market. However, when I started creating the charts, I couldn’t stop and I just gave up after making 18. Perhaps, I will offer again in a future post. As has been the case with every post, these are truly history making times, in the financial markets, the economy, global health, etc. The word “generational” doesn’t seem to do it justice. […]
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Date: March 18, 2020
Corona Crash Continues. We WILL Get to the Other Side.
I wrote an update for yesterday, but I ended up hitting “save” instead of post and just realized it. Sorry about that. As I was emailing with a friend about analyzing what’s going, I said that short-term forecasts could literally be wrong before the ink dries on the paper. That’s how fast things are moving. I don’t want to jinx this (Lord knows we don’t need more problems), but I have been incredibly impressed that the electronic financial system seems […]
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Date: March 17, 2020
No Adjectives to Describe. Generational?
The collapse in the financial markets this week has certainly been historic and epic. It has been on par with the moves we saw in 2008 and 1987 in terms of underlying carnage. The difference here is that it started from an all-time high only one month ago, something that we have never seen before in history. It also began without the usual crumbling foundation of the stock market, something I will write about next week. After Thursday’s whopping decline, […]
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Date: March 13, 2020
A Decline for the Ages – Turnaround Tuesday Possible
Seeing the Dow Industrials lose 2000 points in a single day was something that wasn’t even on my worst case radar as recently as last month. But as we have seen many times this century with the advent and domination of computerized trading, things change at warp speed. Declines that used to take weeks, months and even quarters to unfold and complete are now compressed into days and weeks. Risk no longer slowly builds; it happens all at once. I […]
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Date: March 10, 2020
UGLY Open Ahead
Stocks are set to plummet at the open as crude oil collapsed overnight. The revisiting of the February 28 low is here and we need to see if divergences develop to indicate a successful retest and the next step in the bottoming process. Trading today and over the next few days is going to be frenetic. I imagine enormous intra-day moves with many bouts of panic selling and margin calls. This correction continues to set precedents for its speed and […]
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Date: March 9, 2020
Internal Bottom, More Downside Left, Dow 30K and Powell’s Blunder
On Monday, I spent a good deal of time publishing 9th Correction of the Bull Market – Dow 30,000 Coming in Q3. I think I did a pretty good job of putting the correction into proper context against the 8 other corrections during this bull market. So far, last Friday certainly has all the makings of the internal or momentum low I usually discuss during corrections. I will spare you and not post a deluge of charts, but here are […]
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Date: March 4, 2020
9th Correction of the Bull Market – Dow 30,000 Coming in Q3
Before I begin the update as planned, I want to repeat what I have said to folks who have called and emailed. I think the bull market remains alive. I think Dow 30,000 will be hit during the summer. That anticipated rally may be the one that signals a new bear market. I think this week will be up for the stock market. It is quite possible that Friday’s low was the internal or momentum low from which the first […]
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Date: March 2, 2020
Coronavirus & Stock Market Playbook
As I mentioned the other day, I have been reading an incredible amount, just like many of you, about the Coronavirus. I even pestered a relative at the CDC as well as my friend who runs a research lab at Yale for their opinions. Interestingly, the professionals are a whole lot less alarmed than the masses. The two I annoyed both texted me science articles of why Corona is just another in a long line of bad viruses to be […]
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Date: February 27, 2020
Putting 1000 Points into Perspective & Selling Gold
Stocks are set for a feeble bounce at the open today after a 1000 point drubbing to begin the new week. 1000 Dow points today equals roughly 3.5%. While Monday was the third largest point decline in history, it only ranked as 254th of all declines since 1896 according to my friend Ryan Detrick from LPL. Since 1950 there have been 103 3%+ declines in the stock market.The crash of 1987 was 22.5% in one day. Today, that would have […]
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Date: February 25, 2020
AH HA! The Gap of Recognition? Corona Crash
Global stock markets are red and very ugly as the Coronavirus has been spreading to European countries like Italy. I think the problem is that the markets don’t know what they don’t know. In other words, there is a world of uncertainty out there and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. As I wrote last week, the market doesn’t care until it cares and then it really cares. Over the past two months, I have repeatedly written about bullish sentiment […]
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Date: February 24, 2020
Coronavirus Back on Top. Japanese Yen Causing Dislocations.
Stocks had been trading pretty much immune to the daily headlines regarding Corona even though everyone had known there would be economic impact. It’s like everything else in the markets. It doesn’t matter until it matters and then it matters in a huge way. That was best seen in 2005, 2006 and 2007 with the financial crisis. Don’t misunderstand; I am not saying that Corona is anything like the financial crisis. On Thursday and at least the morning on Friday, […]
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Date: February 21, 2020
Historic Greed. Media Day & Stock Picks
I am excited to co-host Yahoo Finance’s On The Move from 11:30am to 1:00pm today talking about the DNC’s debate last night, an historic level of greed in the stock market, NFL playoffs and a reveal of an upcoming ebook I am writing. After that, I get to join my old friend, Charles Payne, on Fox Business’ Making Money at 2:00pm for a segment discussing the meteoric rise in stocks and where to put your money. Yesterday from the office, […]
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Date: February 20, 2020
January Barometer – Another Indicator to Debunk or Not
During the end of January to early February each year, there is an annual discussion regarding the January Barometer, another indicator which supposedly has a great track record of predicting the return for the calendar year. This indicator was created and made popular by Yale Hirsch, founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Basically, it says that as January goes, so goes the calendar year. Simple enough, right? The Almanac claims a “success rate” in excess of 80% which seems pretty […]
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Date: February 12, 2020
Bulls Running. All Not Great. Dollar Surges w/ Silent Media
After stocks peaked a few weeks ago and the Coronavirus was blamed, I talked about a trading range setting in as one of my three scenarios. That scenario was the most middle of the road. With the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 scoring new highs, the most immediate negative scenario has been ruled out. We are left with whether stocks will pause and remain in the loose range or accelerate to the upside and run higher. There is clearly an […]
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Date: February 11, 2020
I Didn’t See That Coming
While I was looking for the stock market to begin the bottoming process on Monday, I definitely did not think that stocks would literally rip to new highs in three days. That was a much less likely scenario and one that would bother me. To be exact here, the NASDAQ 100 is at new highs with the S&P 500 right there. The Dow, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are not. We will see where they end up at week’s end. […]
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Date: February 5, 2020
