Back in the Saddle. Bottom Getting Closer
Let me start by apologizing for going dark last week. I had a little accident with a tree and the tree won. I ended up in the hospital and just focused my work efforts on running our strategies and not doing any writing. And after not publishing last week, not much has changed from where I left off in the markets. I was in the short-term pullback camp after the May 1 peak, but it looked like much of the […]
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Date: May 28, 2019
Tweet Watch Again
Although our models were flashing numerous green lights at the close on Monday, I wasn’t convinced that the final low was in. And nothing this week has made me feel any more comfortable. I am definitely not concerned about meaningful decline in the stock market, just that the 5% pullback doesn’t seem complete. Of course, you could push back and say that I am being too cute with such a relatively small decline and you would be right. What bothers […]
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Date: May 17, 2019
THE Bottom or A Bottom? Banks Looking Good
After Monday’s mauling by the bears the losses mounted to roughly 5% and was pretty much in straight line fashion since the May 1 FOMC meeting. In other words, for all the fire and brimstone by the bears, all we have see, so far, has been a normal, routine and what I will call “healthy” single digit, bull market pullback. Very little internal damage has been done. The Dow Industrials said hello to its long-term trend, the average price of […]
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Date: May 15, 2019
Tariff Tantrum Continues
The markets’ tariff tiff/tantrum is now a full blown tantrum. “I don’t want tariffs! I don’t want tariffs! I don’t want tariffs!” The truth is, as I wrote about before, the markets were setting up to pause, digest or even pullback modestly after the Fed meeting on May 1. They were just looking for that excuse which came in a big way over the past week or so. After another big down opening, stocks are continuing to slide lower, the […]
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Date: May 13, 2019
Pullback Continues? All Eyes on Twitter. REALLY???
Lots of intra-day movement this week after stocks peaked on May 1 when the Fed concluded their two-day meeting. After 30 years in the business, I keep saying that few things surprise me anymore, but I have to say that watching traders and market participants glued to Twitter for any sign of tariff walk back by the president is certainly a first for me. I can’t imagine what the great investors of yesteryear are thinking as they down on us […]
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Date: May 9, 2019
Renewed Tariff Tiff/Tantrum from Tweet
We woke up today to one of those infamous tweets from the President. Surprisingly, without notice, he began targeting China and a renewal of the tariff tiff or tariff tantrum. As you know, I am so firmly against tariffs as an economic weapon because no one ever wins. It’s just about losing less. In a perfect world, there shouldn’t be any tariffs at all and each country’s goods and services should stand on their own merit. As I have said […]
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Date: May 6, 2019
Powell Pours Cold Water
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded their two-day meeting on Wednesday with no change in interest rates, as expected. While markets initially reacted positively as the prospect for a rate cut later this year remained very real, Fed Chair Jay Powell, quickly and curiously doused cold water on those hopes, citing “transitory” low inflation. I call it “curious” because after countless years of historically low rates and multiple rounds of quantitative easing that created roughly $4 trillion of new […]
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Date: May 2, 2019
GDP Blows Out. Stocks Don’t React.
It seems like after a few frustrating weeks with the server migration, the blog is back online with all content restored. If you see anything that is broken or clearly missing, please let me know. Thanks for your patience! On Friday, the government released the first look at Q1 GDP and it blew away expectations, surging more than 3% when some “experts” were forecasting 0% growth and many were below 2%. Given the magnitude of the Q4 stock market decline […]
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Date: April 29, 2019
Sectors Strengthening. Buy the Pullback
First, I want to apologize for my inconsistent posting lately. We have been trying to migrate to a new and upgraded WordPress server at Godaddy and that has taken a lot longer than I thought. At first I didn’t realize that I couldn’t post new content until everything was migrated over and then I had to have Godaddy migrate everything over all over again. So, I am in limbo. Sorry about that. Thankfully, the markets have been very quiet lately […]
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Date: April 22, 2019
Still Bullish. Junk Bonds & Taxes
Stocks have definitely been quiet of late although that’s from a bull’s perspective from the inside looking out. There has been a very slight drift higher. From a bear’s perspective from the outside looking in, it must be painful first watching stocks relentlessly melt up and then continue to grind higher day after day after day. These types of markets wear on anyone holding cash waiting to invest. From my perspective, I have tried to do my best not to […]
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Date: April 15, 2019
Junk Bonds Say Full Steam Ahead
It’s been a fairly quiet few days for stocks after the better than expected employment numbers were released on Friday. The economy created 196,000 new jobs versus the 175,000 expected. As I wrote about then, I was expecting a strong number with a sharply higher revised number for February. While the former happened, the latter certainly didn’t as February was only revised higher from 20,000 to 33,000. There’s nothing wrong the major indices. All looks fine. The four key sectors […]
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Date: April 9, 2019
Jobs Friday
Today, we have what is always labeled as the “all important” monthly jobs report. Frankly, given the Fed’s recent 170 degree turn, I don’t think it’s that vital unless the data either completely fall off a cliff or completely spike. Both are unlikely. After February’s unexpectedly weak report, I said that I fully expect a sharp revision higher when March’s report is released in early April as well as a decent report for March. I still feel that is the […]
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Date: April 5, 2019
Lyft a Bust??? Stocks Soar & Roar
Last week, we ended with the hottest and most anticipated IPO in a very long time. It was one that caused me to dust off my HOT IPO Roadmap and tell you to run for the hills. Lyft came public to all the glory and hoopla of a Ringling Brother circus. And certainly not to my surprise, it fell flat on its face after running above $88. Last I checked, it was sub $70. The pundits were chastising Uber for […]
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Date: April 2, 2019
Hot IPO, LYFT, Coming Out. Time to Buy?
“Hot” IPOs like Alibaba, Twitter and Facebook are usually very emotional, much anticipated and huge financial media events. Investors clamor for these stocks, usually throwing caution to the wind as fundamentals are trampled by greed. The media are usually camped out at the NYSE or NASDAQ with minute by minute updates as to where the stock may open. As I have discussed over and over, emotion in investing can have a very detrimental impact on your portfolio! That’s one of […]
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Date: March 29, 2019
Stocks Pause, Bonds Yields Collapse
Greetings from Baltimore with some absolutely beautiful spring weather waiting for me! I knew my day would be great on Tuesday when I arrived at the airport and saw not a soul around. From the time I dropped my car off at 7am to the time they closed the boarding door at 7:30am to the time I landed and picked up my rental car at 9:15am, every minute was a pleasure! And my day only got better from there as […]
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Date: March 27, 2019
Boeing, Mueller and Yield Curve, OH MY!
A week ago, I started off my writing that a stronger seasonal headwind was in play for the week, but I didn’t think it would be a significant decline. Stocks did pause overall, pulling back about 1% although it certainly did feel like there was more to it, especially if you watched the various headlines come across with Boeing and the Mueller investigation, BREXIT and the yield curve once again. For a stock market that has risen almost vertically since […]
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Date: March 25, 2019
The Most Unanticipated FOMC Meeting
The Most Unanticipated FOMC Meeting Today is one of the most unanticipated Fed statement days in recent memory. How will we ever survive without hearing that “today is the most important Fed day ever”? I say that because absolutely nothing is really expected today. Chairman Jay Powell did his 170 degree turn earlier this year and the Fed is now on a new course. Okay. Maybe, I am exaggerating a little bit. Perhaps, we will hear about their plans to […]
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Date: March 20, 2019
Strong Sector Leadership. Seasonal Headwind This Week.
As I wrote about last week, stocks ended their deepest and longest pullback since the Christmas bottom. And that was all of 3% and 5 days. Not much for the bears to hang their hopes on. I also commented that I wanted to see which sectors led out of that pullback since it was unlikely that the rising tide would continue to lift all ships. Since the March 8th low, the bulls should be proud that it’s been a “risk […]
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Date: March 18, 2019
If At First You Don’t Succeed…
On Wednesday, the bulls tried to break stocks above what pundits are calling the “key” line in the sand. This was the fourth such attempt in the past three weeks. As I mentioned before the first try almost always fails and the second is usually a little more emotional. After that, one of the attempts usually sticks. You can see this on the chart below. Today, is that fourth attempt and we will see where the bulls end up. Given […]
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Date: March 15, 2019
Once Again, the Bears Get Left Behind, Waiting, Hoping & Praying
Greetings from LA! Hopefully, this is the final day of a long, three city trip. I always debate compressing my trips into fewer ones so I can get a lot accomplished with less flying. In today’s case, this massive winter storm will likely result in my flight being canceled to Denver. So, my fingers and toes are crossed that I can get back to CT tonight and not have to deal with the masses tomorrow. Last Friday, I wrote about […]
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Date: March 13, 2019
