Three Last Minute Year-End Tips
As Kenny Loggins wrote, “Make no mistake where you are. This is it.” The last day of the last week of the last month of the last quarter of the year. 2015 will soon be in the books and it will go down as a year where the stock market was down a little and the bond market was down more while commodities were down huge. As I sit here finishing up my final blog post and newsletter of the […]
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Date: December 30, 2015
Santa Claus is in the House!
The last week of 2015. I hope you have been enjoying the holidays. The major stock market indices continue to behave as I spelled out over the past few weeks. Santa Claus came right on schedule and the seasonal trend has him taking a break to close the year with some mild strength to begin 2016. While I was very pleased that stocks reversed early last week and have followed through on the gains, we still need to see all […]
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Date: December 29, 2015
Santa Needs to Get a Movin’
Since the Fed wrongly raised interest rates last week, the stock market has done a good job of following the script. First, it rallied sharply from 2pm to the close on the day of the announcement. Then, it saw weakness on Thursday and Friday followed by strength to begin the new and holiday shortened week. While that all looks nice, I did not expect the amount of weakness seen when combining Thursday and Friday. That definitely bothered me regardless of […]
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Date: December 22, 2015
All Signs Point to a Horrifically Wrong Decision by Yellen & the Fed
FINALLY, or YET AGAIN, it’s FOMC statement day. Unlike every meeting since 2007, I do believe the Fed is wrongly going to raise short-term interest rates for the first time since 2006. Since 2008, my thesis has been and continues to be that the Fed should not raise interest rates until the other side of the next recession. This is your “typical” post-financial crisis recovery that’s very uneven. It teases and tantalizes on the upside and frustrates and terrorizes on […]
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Date: December 16, 2015
Third Avenue Travesty
After peaking way back in 2014 and declining ever since, the high yield (junk) bond market has finally made national news over the past week with the very high profile blow up of the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund (TAFCF). This was not some fly by night little fund or fund family. It’s a small, mainstream mutual fund family and the fund itself had more than $3 billion in assets in 2014. Last week, after massive withdrawals, the fund announced […]
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Date: December 16, 2015
Bye Bye Bernie
I have been watching the various presidential debates and haven’t missed one for the most part. I find them to be sometimes informative and on the entertaining side although the recent democratic one was a bit tortuous in my opinion (more on that later). The democrats have only had one, but I can’t get Bernie Sanders’ voice out of my head when I watch Seinfeld reruns. He sounds exactly like the actor who plays Yankees’ owner George Steinbrenner. I remember […]
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Date: December 11, 2015
Buy Small Caps for the Next Three Weeks
In my previous post, Underwhelming Rally but Don’t Count Out the Bulls, I was concerned about another “few percent” pullback given last Friday’s weak beneath the surface rally. So far, this week has been all red and it looks like stocks are getting closer to the low where the Santa Claus rally will begin. While the odds favor one more decline below Wednesday’s low over the coming few days, it’s anything but a slam dunk. I have been pounding the […]
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Date: December 10, 2015
Underwhelming Rally but Don’t Count Out the Bulls
Friday’s huge rally was fraught with bits of weakness. The ratio of stocks going up to down was just 2:1 on a 2%+ day when it should have been much, much stronger. The ratio of volume in those stocks should have been multiples stronger. New highs to new lows didn’t move much at all. The rally was narrow and underwhelming beneath the surface. As has been the case since summer, the stocks with the heaviest weightings in the cap weighted […]
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Date: December 7, 2015
Yellen Dousing Dollar & Stocks
After a big day for the bulls on Tuesday that did not close above the levels I spoke about to cause a spurt, stocks reversed on Wednesday and it looks really ugly on a chart. Bears will point to similar reversals at the major peaks in 2000 and 2007, which is true, but these kinds of reversals also occur routinely throughout a bull market. In analyzing their predictive power, they certainly have led to some short-term weakness, but the longer […]
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Date: December 3, 2015
Spurt or Pullback???
Stocks continue to digest the gains made in early November without giving up against the negative news backdrop. That’s a well supported, resilient market. When the major indices close above their November highs, we should see a quick spurt to the upside. If they fail to do so this week, I would not be surprised at all to see a mild 1-3% pullback lasting a week or two to set up the Santa Claus rally into 2016. My theme remains […]
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Date: December 1, 2015
Stocks are no Turkey
I hope everyone had a great and meaningful Thanksgiving. As I type this, my stomach has settled down and I am just about ready for an evening snack at halftime of the Packers/Bears game before they honor Brett Favre. Friday is another seasonally strong day on the heels of Wednesday. Don’t forget that the stock market closes at 1pm est. In my previous post I mentioned that the seasonal stats don’t forecast magnitude, just direction. What a perfect example as […]
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Date: November 26, 2015
Come on in Bears; the Water is Nice!
Although overnight indications had stocks down .5% two nights ago, by the time the closing bell rang, the major indices recouped all that and then some in yet another sign of resilience. It seems like every call and email I get and most conversations I have are with folks who have a very negative view of the markets. I continue to feel like I am on an island alone in my bullish view. The masses just dismiss the upside as […]
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Date: November 25, 2015
Bulls Come Back to Life
Stocks came into the week on their heels from the recent pullback and the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris. In my previous post, I offered that the odds favored some more weakness with a reversal this week. The market saw a quick bout of weakness to open the week, but quickly reversed into a very strong day for the bulls on Monday. While Tuesday saw some internal soft spots, the bears will have a tough time taking control unless stocks […]
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Date: November 18, 2015
Pullback Deeper Than Expected
Stocks continue under pressure as they pullback from the huge run last month. Last week, I offered that this week would be the buying opportunity, but the pullback has been deeper than I expected. “Relentless” would be an exaggeration, but there has certainly been some strong selling. While Friday’s action did show the major indices mostly down 1%+, the selling was less severe than Thursday. Going in to next week, volatility should continue to be on the high side and […]
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Date: November 13, 2015
Pullback Orderly and Constructive So Far
The pullback that began last Wednesday in the major stock market indices continues. It’s been orderly and constructive so far and if the super bullish case remains, it should wrap up sooner than later. The stock market is digesting the better than expected employment report and is coming to terms with a December rate hike by the Fed. The banks and discretionary continue to lead which is a positive sign over the intermediate-term. Transports are transitioning to leadership and that’s […]
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Date: November 10, 2015
Pullback to Buy
Stocks are finally seeing some pause in the relentless rally that began a little over a month ago. It should be mild, relatively painless and in the 1-3% range. As I continue to mention, any and all weakness is a buying opportunity until proven otherwise. And there’s a chance that the “proven otherwise” won’t be seen until well into 2016. Internally, the stock market has been and is on solid footing. As you can see from the chart below, the […]
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Date: November 5, 2015
Stepping on the Bears’ Throats
As bullish as I have been, and I don’t think many have been as positive as I have been, the stock market is now starting to surprise even me on the upside. Coming in to the week, stocks were looking a little tired and in need of some rest, either by going sideways for a few weeks or by seeing a mild pullback of 1-3%. Instead, stocks are continuing to move higher although the rate of acceleration has slowed. I […]
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Date: November 3, 2015
Yet ANOTHER Bullish Q4 Study
After my research on post-crash behavior was complete, I turned to stock market performance. With both August and September closing lower, I wondered if there was any trend for Q4. Over the past 35 years, there were only 6 occurrences and all led to a positive Q4 by an average of +10.86%! You can view the study here. http://investfortomorrowblog.com/archives/1936 With the help of my friend and colleague Dana Lyons, http://jlfmi.tumblr.com, I analyzed stock market returns since 1950 when the S&P […]
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Date: October 30, 2015
Fed Day Again?!?!
Boy did six weeks fly by! Here we are again. At 2pm we will hear from the Fed that interest rates remain unchanged, but their economic outlook is probably on the positive side. I also expect a comment or two about China and then the laying of groundwork for a possible rate hike six weeks from now. I still do not agree with any rate increase, but it seems like it’s coming. The stock market model for the day is […]
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Date: October 28, 2015
Catching Their Breath
After a huge win for the bulls last week, stocks have become very short-term overbought. I don’t think the rally is over nor do I think any meaningful weakness will unfold. Rather, I think the bulls need a pause to refresh which can be accomplished by going sideways for a period of time or seeing a quick pullback. Either way, new highs should be up next and buying any weakness is the strategy until proven otherwise. Am I certain that […]
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Date: October 26, 2015
