Is THIS the Week When the Sky Falls?
Roughly one month ago, after an historic lift off post BREXIT, stocks had become overbought which is a technical term for a little too far too fast. Most pundits in the media were calling for a pullback before they would buy. As I have discussed for longer than I have been writing this blog, the masses seldom get what they want or predict. When stocks bottom, the first rally is usually very powerful as it catches the majority off guard. […]
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Date: August 8, 2016
Hillary’s Impact on Stocks
Since the historic breadth thrust in stocks after the BREXIT, the market has certainly quieted down. I have written about the “coil” for two weeks and nothing has really changed. There is a big move coming sooner than later! I am keenly watching leadership for signs that a fresh leg higher towards Dow 20K has started. Turning to the presidential election hysteria, it’s certainly been anything but quiet! BRUTAL is the first word that comes to mind. My opinion regarding […]
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Date: August 4, 2016
Careful Getting too Negative
Last week, I wrote about stocks being “coiled” up and ready for a big move. I also warned that many times, we see a fake in the opposite direction of the trend that shakes weak investors out, only to see a reversal from there. Today, the major stock market indices are finally seeing the bout of weakness which has been forecast by the pundits for weeks. Remember, being early is also being wrong. For now, we are seeing stocks break […]
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Date: August 2, 2016
What’s SUPPOSED to Happen versus What ACTUALLY Happens
Earlier this week, I mentioned that stocks were coiled up and looking for a big move. Since then, only the NASDAQ 100 has done anything and that was really just on Apple’s earnings beat. Overall, it’s been a very quiet week without any volatility at all. That’s likely to change sooner than later, but unlikely to be today. As I have mentioned over and over, the post-BREXIT thrust, pullbacks are likely to be shallow as the masses were caught off […]
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Date: July 29, 2016
Not so Special, Special Fed Update
Let me begin this special FOMC update by saying that all three very short-term markets trends based on the Fed’s meeting ending today have lower probability of success this week although there may be a sign pointing to lower prices by the end of the week. Stay tuned. Without a crisis like 2008, Janet Yellen & Co. will find it tougher and tougher to discuss an interest rate hike during the heat of the political season. While the Fed is […]
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Date: July 27, 2016
Stocks Coiled Up for a Move
Good Monday Morning! If you looked for me on FOX Business last Friday, I wasn’t there as the attack in Germany meant more geopolitical news and less market discussion. My segment was rescheduled for 2:50 pm this Wednesday which is right after the Fed concludes their meeting and announces no change in interest rates. There’s not a whole lot new today to review. Stocks remain very overbought, but an awful lot of investors are looking for that pullback to buy. […]
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Date: July 25, 2016
FOX Business TODAY & Dow 20K
I am going to be on Fox Business’ The Intelligence Report with Trish Regan today (Friday) at 2:50 pm edt discussing my forecast for stocks and the markets, especially with the Fed set to meet next Tuesday & Wednesday. Trish is heading back from Cleveland so Ashley Webster is filling in. It has been truly amazing what a little rally has done to market sentiment. At the BREXIT bottom, as the pundits, masses and media all panicked and headed for […]
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Date: July 22, 2016
And NOW They Want to Buy?
Although fresh all-time highs are making headlines, making it seem like there’s a lot of action, the past week has been fairly quiet for stocks. On the surface, it looks like the first leg of the post-BREXIT rally has ended. However before you think about turning negative, I remain very positive on the intermediate and long-term. It’s the short-term that looks like a pullback or coin flip as sentiment has become a little too giddy and the pundits have all […]
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Date: July 21, 2016
Like a Broken Record
I read a stat last night that said only 1% of Americans hold off taking social security until 70. That low number really surprised me as it means 99% of Americans do not get the maximum amount of social security. When I meet with clients and prospects, one of the foundation conversations is when to take social security and why. If you are approaching retirement or already take social security, do yourself a favor and spend some time researching this! […]
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Date: July 12, 2016
On the Way to Dow 20K
With the short-term volatility over the past few weeks, this is no clear trend to take advantage of post today’s employment report. By that, I mean, our short-term trading system specifically created for this report has no strong edge. The report came in strong and pre-market indications are for a higher open which can sometimes point towards a short-term peak. With the much better than expected report, the recent market leaders may be under pressure. Utilities, staples, REITs, telecom and […]
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Date: July 8, 2016
Separating Pretenders from the Contenders
Greetings from 34,000 feet as I head to CO for the weekend with my wife and some friends. Of course, they’re all her friends because who would really want to hang out with me?!?! As is typical when I take a day or two off, Mother Nature thumbed her nose at me with a forecast of rain, rain and thunderstorms with highs in the low 60s and lows in the upper 30s. Thanks! We may have set a record for […]
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Date: July 1, 2016
Who Knew?!?!
Thanks to everyone who tuned in for my BREXIT segment on FOX61 in CT yesterday. You view it HERE. A few days post BREXIT and all seems well in the financial world. Listening to the business channels, everyone called the top and now everyone called the bottom. Isn’t revisionist history wonderful! Until proven wrong, I will keep referring to the Playbook I first outlined last Friday for a clue as to where stocks go from here. So far so good. […]
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Date: June 29, 2016
Red is the Theme Short-Term But Green is on the Way
After Friday’s big down day which historically has occurred less than 1% of the time, the model for Monday is another large red day of 1-3%. From there, stocks should attempt to form a low on Tuesday or Wednesday and rally for a few days to a week. This is right in line with the Playbook I offered here on Friday. As you would expect, the financial sector has been hit the hardest, but I am a little surprised that […]
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Date: June 27, 2016
The Aftermath & Shock of BREXIT – A Market Playbook and Dow 20,000
Good for the citizens of the UK! In true democratic form, the majority were unhappy and voted for change. And that’s what they got. Kinda, sorta. If I had the power to vote, I guess I would have voted to leave because I would rather be the first one out than the last. The pundits were embarrassed. The markets got it wrong. The bookmakers appear to have lost a fortune. In my piece earlier this week, http://investfortomorrowblog.com/archives/2292, on Twitter and […]
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Date: June 24, 2016
BREXIT, SCHMEXIT – Much Ado About Nothing???
Like Y2K, the second war in Iraq and other date certain events, the United Kingdom will vote on Thursday whether it wants to remain in the European Union (EU), otherwise known as BREXIT (BRitain EXIT). Unlike most geopolitical events which just happen, the BREXIT vote has been known about for some time as UK Prime Minister Cameron promised to hold this referendum if he won reelection in 2015. What is the BREXIT & Why Depending on who you ask, the […]
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Date: June 22, 2016
Biding Time to BREXIT
After an almost celebratory opening on Monday which saw the Dow up 200 points, stock steadily declined throughout the day and closed at their lows. On the surface, the average person saw all of the major indices nicely higher with the vast majority of stocks up on the day. The short-term trader saw a tired market that couldn’t hold early gains and closed at the low tick. Both observations are correct but time frame determines your viewpoint. I fall somewhere […]
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Date: June 21, 2016
Bulls’ Time… AGAIN
As has been the theme since the February bottom, weakness is buying opportunity until proven otherwise. Except for the brief period from April 21 to May 20, I have been pounding the table on the bullish front. The Fed, earnings, China, BREXIT, employment have all given ammunition to the bears, but someone forgot to tell the stock market. Last Thursday saw a somewhat dramatic reversal the day after the Fed meeting which helped our Fed trends. While the bulls took […]
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Date: June 19, 2016
***Special Fed Meeting Update & The Continuous Loss of Credibility and Clue***
Six weeks later and it’s Groundhog Day all over again! Or is that deja vu all over again?!?! It matters not. I began my Fed day comments with this in April. “The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee concludes their two day meeting with an announcement at 2 pm that interest rates will not change today. That’s what the markets are expecting. There has been all kinds of hot air coming from several Fed officials that rates need to rise now, […]
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Date: June 15, 2016
Yes, I Know… The Pullback to Buy
At the end of last week, stocks looked a tiny bit tired. Two days later and 2% lower, it’s getting ripe for at least a bounce. Over the past week, the inverse volatility ETF (XIV), which is really just the S&P 500 times 5 or 6 is down a whopping 34%! That’s some odd behavior and historically does not portend more significant downside. Stocks are pulling back as they approached all-time highs which is certainly not unexpected. There are few […]
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Date: June 14, 2016
The Answer is NO
If we were playing Jeopardy, the question would be, “Has the Stock Market Peaked?” The other day, I wrote about the potential for a 1-3% pullback in the context of generally higher stock prices. That remains my view and weakness can be bought. It’s amazing that a single day of decline in the stock market after a 5% rally can bring out so many bears. Stocks were overdue for some weakness and now we have it. While it’s probably a […]
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Date: June 10, 2016
